DooDiligence Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Is it just me or does that header image of a Mickey flower sculpture look kind of like a COVID cell? https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/shanghai-disneyland-reopens-its-gates/ --- I'd still like to own this again but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Was speaking to an analyst the other day and while talking about other names the subject of Disney came up. It seems all but certain that Disney ticket prices upon re-opening(or shortly thereafter) will be astronomical given the pent up demand seen in other places where they've re-opened. Same applies to most likely any other event/experience oriented ticket. I'd imagine this definitely helps short term, but it may also have lasting long term benefits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Was speaking to an analyst the other day and while talking about other names the subject of Disney came up. It seems all but certain that Disney ticket prices upon re-opening(or shortly thereafter) will be astronomical given the pent up demand seen in other places where they've re-opened. Same applies to most likely any other event/experience oriented ticket. I'd imagine this definitely helps short term, but it may also have lasting long term benefits. Did ticket prices in China go up after reopening? that might be a clue. If they significantly raise ticket prices, I think there is going to be a lot of backlash and brand damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted May 22, 2020 Share Posted May 22, 2020 Was speaking to an analyst the other day and while talking about other names the subject of Disney came up. It seems all but certain that Disney ticket prices upon re-opening(or shortly thereafter) will be astronomical given the pent up demand seen in other places where they've re-opened. Same applies to most likely any other event/experience oriented ticket. I'd imagine this definitely helps short term, but it may also have lasting long term benefits. Did ticket prices in China go up after reopening? that might be a clue. If they significantly raise ticket prices, I think there is going to be a lot of backlash and brand damage. My sense, and what seems too be the thought process is that the demand is the feeler. If demand is sky high as it was when China reopened you have a runway to get there. Of course they will be sensitive about how they go about it, but it's most likely going to be a bidding war for rich folks as long as capacity is limited. Same for concerts and other high demand events. Imagine a Yankee ticket right now? The businesses will be sneaky about how they get to higher prices, but the ones Ive looked into all seem to be aware of the supply/demand imbalance. And oh yea, the millions/billions they've just lost while shut down. https://www.businessinsider.com/disneyland-reopening-shanghai-china-pictures-2020-5 Shanghai sold out on less than a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 Disney wont raise prices necessarily, but I bet they'll do more exclusive ticketed events and things like that, which are effectively a price increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plato1976 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 what will espn be worth if it's separated from disney? Disney wont raise prices necessarily, but I bet they'll do more exclusive ticketed events and things like that, which are effectively a price increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 what will espn be worth if it's separated from disney? Disney wont raise prices necessarily, but I bet they'll do more exclusive ticketed events and things like that, which are effectively a price increase. Does ESPN benefit from being within Disney? I don’t think so. ESPN itself would be worth only a small multiple. Think MSGN or other cable business. 7x EBITDA maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted May 23, 2020 Share Posted May 23, 2020 what will espn be worth if it's separated from disney? Disney wont raise prices necessarily, but I bet they'll do more exclusive ticketed events and things like that, which are effectively a price increase. Does ESPN benefit from being within Disney? I don’t think so. ESPN itself would be worth only a small multiple. Think MSGN or other cable business. 7x EBITDA maybe. I think Disney benefits from owning ESPN though. I suspect they get better placement and fees for their other cable networks in the bundle as a result of being able to negotiate with ESPN. Not a huge deal perhaps, and bundle wont last forever. But I also think the ideal state for a cash cow zero growth low multiple business (like espn) is to have a good place to reinvest the cashflow. Disney is reinvesting espn cashflow into the parks, hotels, and cruise ships at what I believe are high ROIs. That strategy is obviously being affected by covid, but I think disney travel will be durable post recovery (whenever that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 New piece by Ben Thompson on Disney: https://stratechery.com/2020/disneys-integration/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Dan Loel letter to management: https://www.scribd.com/document/479102830/Loeb-Letter-to-Disney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Dan Loel letter to management: https://www.scribd.com/document/479102830/Loeb-Letter-to-Disney The buying opportunity (if they cut the dividend) would be tremendous. I prob should've held my sub $100 cost shares but sold when it was bumping a 52 week high, expecting another round of drops. They've survived multiple disasters including having an alligator eat a baby on one of their properties. In hindsight, covid will likely be hailed as the accelerant to their transition into a more defensible & profitable moat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flesh Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Dan Loel letter to management: https://www.scribd.com/document/479102830/Loeb-Letter-to-Disney Thanks. Now I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 what will espn be worth if it's separated from disney? Disney wont raise prices necessarily, but I bet they'll do more exclusive ticketed events and things like that, which are effectively a price increase. Does ESPN benefit from being within Disney? I don’t think so. ESPN itself would be worth only a small multiple. Think MSGN or other cable business. 7x EBITDA maybe. I think Disney benefits from owning ESPN though. I suspect they get better placement and fees for their other cable networks in the bundle as a result of being able to negotiate with ESPN. Not a huge deal perhaps, and bundle wont last forever. But I also think the ideal state for a cash cow zero growth low multiple business (like espn) is to have a good place to reinvest the cashflow. Disney is reinvesting espn cashflow into the parks, hotels, and cruise ships at what I believe are high ROIs. That strategy is obviously being affected by covid, but I think disney travel will be durable post recovery (whenever that is). You left out the Fox acquisition which is a huge use of Disney cash flow. ROI on that is TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocSnowball Posted October 14, 2020 Share Posted October 14, 2020 The strategy shift is significant, and will need capital investment - not just from cutting dividends but also some reallocation of capital. Disney has built it's business in the Bob Iger era by buying up "pieces of childhood" icon figures. While that worked in the past, Disney+ is their best way to stay relevant with kids and their families in this new era. As a parent of two young kids, I'm one of the 60 million plus new subscribers. The content feels much like early Netflix streaming days, you can watch for a few weeks and then get saturated. They'll need to come up with new series that keep viewers hooked, but with their wealth of characters that should be doable. There was interesting discussion about other aspects of the flywheel during the CoBF meetup which I greatly appreciated - gaming, virtual reality etc. Not saying that's happening now but that there is enough to keep the flywheel going long term as long as a loyal band of users is there. Two questions - one is their debt, although not that high (total debt 55.4 billion out of market cap of 213 billion, around 1 B in long term interest and another 1B in uncapitalized leases), what is the risk of dilution if losses continue in 2021? Second, what are the catalysts? Is it pricing, when the market starts to value the long term $$$ each user can generate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Ten million people signed up within the first day, with a total of 26.5 million subscribers in its first operating quarter. Disney+ jumped from 33.5 million subscribers in its second quarter to 57.5 million by its third quarter. By the fourth quarter, the company said it surpassed 73.7 million subscribers. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/11/after-showing-massive-growth-disney-hikes-5-year-subscriber-goal-.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 What if the primary beneficiaries of the new distribution models, including access to the valuable data that comes with direct relationships with eyeballs, are the existing media companies? Would be pretty much like how internet 1.0 played out, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 What if the primary beneficiaries of the new distribution models, including access to the valuable data that comes with direct relationships with eyeballs, are the existing media companies? Would be pretty much like how internet 1.0 played out, yeah? Unlike retailers, the media companies control their content...they own it. I had this discussion with a couple of people a couple of years ago at the Pabrai Funds meeting. They were very high on Netflix. I said, Netflix will do well until Disney, Amazon, Apple and other media companies start their own streaming services. The pandemic sped up that process, and we're seeing how the content owners are excelling over the content distributors...theatres, cable companies, radio, etc. Netflix and Amazon were smart to start developing their own content...now it's a race like Pepsi and Coke over who the dominant streaming service will be. Disney has the most content presently, but all have enough money to procure or create content. Google can also expand their YouTube platform...so the field is fairly deep! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 What if the primary beneficiaries of the new distribution models, including access to the valuable data that comes with direct relationships with eyeballs, are the existing media companies? Would be pretty much like how internet 1.0 played out, yeah? Unlike retailers, the media companies control their content...they own it. I had this discussion with a couple of people a couple of years ago at the Pabrai Funds meeting. They were very high on Netflix. I said, Netflix will do well until Disney, Amazon, Apple and other media companies start their own streaming services. The pandemic sped up that process, and we're seeing how the content owners are excelling over the content distributors...theatres, cable companies, radio, etc. Netflix and Amazon were smart to start developing their own content...now it's a race like Pepsi and Coke over who the dominant streaming service will be. Disney has the most content presently, but all have enough money to procure or create content. Google can also expand their YouTube platform...so the field is fairly deep! Cheers! Yes and the consumer wins. You can cancel cable and subscribe to 5-6 different streaming services, have access to better content and save money. Between equipment rentals and my cable package I was paying Comcast $230/month. Now I don't pay anywhere near that and have Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, and Prime, which doesn't even count because I had prime for the shipping even when I used to have cable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Sling TV is also an option out there. PlayStation Vue (I think it’s still around). T-Mobil also just launched a service. I’ve tried pretty much every one so far and Hulu is by far the best. It has the cable feel (local channels with national channels) with pretty solid original content, access to sports, solid movie catalog easily upgradable packages and straight forward pricing. Works on multiple devices etc. Netflix: if you read this. For the love of God please get rid of the autoplay feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Watched most of (not all) of shareholder meeting. All I could think of was “Empire Strikes Back”. That said I am not in the zero sum crowd, that says Disney’s gain is Netflix’ loss. I believe both will do very well as they achieve escape velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yeah, mark me down as with Carl versus Brett in the NFLX saga. I kind of hate it (wouldn't short). It takes two clicks to leave. I get scale, but everyone else you are competing with has a different type of scale advantage (not just Disney, AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, and Comcast), where they can produce content and make money from the bundle, and/or theaters, then maybe license it to NFLX for a bit (or someone else). Even Viacom can put Discovery (Star Trek with Sasha from walking dead as captain) on P+ and then lag it a year before releasing on network TV (since the P+ eyeballs are more valuable given the data....they could even use that to tweak the show b4 broad release) and then it's going to be on Amazon, Apple, and/or Netflix at some point; Kirk and Spock are still bringing in the bacon. The bundle is probably going to become a more attractive deal if and when some of these services have to charge a price that allows them to amortize their debt (and their vaporware content) or the broadband co's start to "have" to throttle bandwidth. (Note that I did not use "flywheel" once....but I could have). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Is there an app that sits on top of all my streaming services so I don't have to change apps to find something to watch? I have Prime, Netflix, HBO Max, Disney+, Hulu, and Peacock... Probably 1 or 2 more that I can't remember anymore. Too many choices! #OkRantOver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Roku can search across apps, example: a relative wanted to watch The Santa Clause, searched for it on roku and saw Disney Plus had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Is there an app that sits on top of all my streaming services so I don't have to change apps to find something to watch? I have Prime, Netflix, HBO Max, Disney+, Hulu, and Peacock... Probably 1 or 2 more that I can't remember anymore. Too many choices! #OkRantOver AppleTV can be used to aggregate content in one portal to watch all of these. Considering getting one myself after seeing a friend use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Even Peacock has ~22M subscriber (most of them free, I guess) and it is US only. It has some kinks (I have experienced stuttering every once in a while) but a surprisingly good catalogue. I watched Moonlight Kingdom (one of Wes Anderson’s best) the other day and I like NBC as a free live TV option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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