DooDiligence Posted September 13, 2019 Share Posted September 13, 2019 Not just Disney but Netflix has been buying out back end participation as well. It's just kind of hard to calculate when you're not selling in all the pay TV rights windows and syndication. I agree & think it's a good move for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UK Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 https://www.wsj.com/articles/bob-igers-next-move-11569932934?mod=rsswn “Him staying at Disney is their gain and the country’s loss,” Winfrey says. “If he had run for president, I would be out there canvassing right now.... I’d be going door to door.... And I’d be saying, ‘Let me tell you about Bob Iger. ’ ” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Anyone thinks the chart gap to $115 might close again.“? The stock basically jumped by $20 because of a great presentation. Profits for the next few years will be compressed and if the economy slows down theme parks will be hit. My biggest worry is ESPN bleeding; it’s still a huge profit generator. I sold my DIS shares a while ago, because I felt the shares were overextended. I like the business, but paying up is not exactly in my nature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Value92 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 The licensing rights are not all in the ownership of the company especially outside the US. The Investor Day presentation assumes a lot of those rights will be owned by the company at the launch of the streaming service. When the market starts to realize this, that might be a good entry point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 The streaming services will have a brutal few years before there is consolidation. Only after consolidation will there be serious profits I think. And correct, Disney is years away from having the licenses to much of it's celebrated content. Right now all of the value is flowing to the content companies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 That's Greenfield's argument but Disney seems to be methodically buying back these various rights across territories and licensing windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Right now all of the value is flowing to the content companies. Somehow I did not see any of that value flow when I owned LGF. Or while I still own DISCA. ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Good post on Disney by Matt Ball: https://www.matthewball.vc/all/marginalaffinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Right now all of the value is flowing to the content companies. Disagree. Value is flowing to content creators. Look at the bidding wars and fat deals for producers / writers / comedians. Way more money between new and legacy companies than top creative talent available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrispy Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 Winjitsu, I agree with you and must have poorly worded my statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spartan Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Pure anecdotal evidence but it sounds like Disney+ is crushing it. Colleagues and friends wouldn’t stop talking about it today. Many bought one-year subscriptions and seemed very pleased with the content. I realize this isn’t rigorous fundamental analysis.. but the ubiquity and uniformity of positive sentiment was striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Pure anecdotal evidence but it sounds like Disney+ is crushing it. Colleagues and friends wouldn’t stop talking about it today. Many bought one-year subscriptions and seemed very pleased with the content. I realize this isn’t rigorous fundamental analysis.. but the ubiquity and uniformity of positive sentiment was striking. They’re basically monetizing my nostalgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Parked some money here about a month ago. Just an easy place to be that should have some wind at its back for a couple months as this rolls out...Dont need to be a genius to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glorysk87 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Sentiment is definitely positive, but looking at the numbers, having a hard time seeing a reason not to sell the stock. At/above $140, there's an awful lot being priced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Disney+ what? ... /yawn ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Sentiment is definitely positive, but looking at the numbers, having a hard time seeing a reason not to sell the stock. At/above $140, there's an awful lot being priced in. My thinking too. The streaming business will only turn profitable in a couple of years (2024?) and will cost a lot of money before that. I also don’t think Netflix will be easy to topple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10M subs already! People often quote various market jingles like "short term market is a voting machine and long term its a weighing machine"...well, right now it's voting and then momentum is all that matters. EZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10M subs already! Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies. ;) wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10M subs already! Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies. ;) wabuffo Haha yea. Im not a TV guy at all, so I dont get it. But the news flow I find is somewhat predictable. Im lightening up into this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
decko Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Families alone will be subscribers.. If you have kids you know what i mean. If you dont, kids marathon the million titles that disney has in their library. That is a lot of subscribers, domestic and international. What is the expected subscribers number that is considered a success.? Have they put a number out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Families alone will be subscribers.. If you have kids you know what i mean. If you dont, kids marathon the million titles that disney has in their library. That is a lot of subscribers, domestic and international. What is the expected subscribers number that is considered a success.? Have they put a number out yet? I dont believe DIS has put anything out there. But for all the reasons you describe above, you know that its a near certainty that in the beginning, the numbers will be huge. So, if you front run that, and then just let the news flow and excitement work its way into the market, things typically skew your way. Or at least that's what Ive found is the easiest way to get 10% monthly returns out of mega cap stocks...let others focus on the granular bullshit. By the time they figure it out, the markets will already be re-priced and from there they can figure out if its worth hanging around for 7% annual appreciation. Again, full disclosure, Ive cut about half my position into this rally, but wouldn't be shocked to see the 52 week tested again. This also gets quite interesting from a value perspective if you look at things through the lens of NFLX's valuation(assuming one thinks its valid, which I dont)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 If anyone is considering D+, here's the presumed list of all movies: https://www.wildaboutmovies.com/features/disney-plus-complete-list-of-movies/ Not sure if it's 100% correct, but FYI. Edit: So far I saw about 5 titles that I'd wanna watch and haven't seen before. And this section: Disney Original Movies (Straight to TV or DVD) - I did not realize Disney made so much crap... ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
absolutbrian Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10m subscribers on the first day. That's incredible. Some analysts thought it would take Disney a year to reach 10 million subscribers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peridotcapital Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Families alone will be subscribers.. If you have kids you know what i mean. If you dont, kids marathon the million titles that disney has in their library. That is a lot of subscribers, domestic and international. What is the expected subscribers number that is considered a success.? Have they put a number out yet? Management guided to between 60M and 90M subs by the end of fiscal 2024, with 1/3 US and 2/3 Intl. Impressive numbers out of the gate aren't that surprising, in part due to partnerships. Verizon customers with unlimited data plans get a 1-year subscription for free, for instance. Now that the bar has been set high by both the company and the market, they will need to get to the high end of expectations. And between now and 2024, they will give up 100% margin third party licensing revenue and start booking loss-making streaming revenue. Looks like a good candidate to trim into this strength and I will probably sell it all at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 10M subs already! Yes - but how many subs after the free week is over and every-one has binged watched all of the StarWars/MCU movies. ;) wabuffo Is there any breakdown of which subs are standalone vs bundled with other services (Verizon)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now