writser Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 I more or less agree with your calculation, but not with your conclusion. 2% expected return in a week, uncorrelated with market returns? Count me in, excellent bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Does the whole deal close in a week with approval? The original closing date was in October IIRC. I guess this is the last thing in the way so it could? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Nope, but if they get FTC approval I expect I can sell the stock above $60 next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 Does the whole deal close in a week with approval? The original closing date was in October IIRC. I guess this is the last thing in the way so it could? No, afaik they don't even have shareholder approval yet. But you can bet that the spread will collapse as soon as they get FTC approval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 How far do you think it will collapse? If it still takes a few months to close, then I assume it will have at least a 2% spread, which means the upside in a week is only ~3%, assuming it goes the way it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 How far do you think it will collapse? If it still takes a few months to close, then I assume it will have at least a 2% spread, which means the upside in a week is only ~3%, assuming it goes the way it seems. I think your 2% spread assumption is too pessimistic. Most low/no-risk deals that are scheduled to be completed in a few months time trade with sub 1% spreads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Looks like this is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Reuters reports that Bloomberg reports that Capital Forum reports that FTC staffers are said to recommend the deal .. :P Not selling as of yet, looks extremely likely deal will close now and I think it should trade a little bit higher if the news is official. Similar deals trade closer to a ~5% IRR which would in this case mean a stock price around $60.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 FTC approval now official: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1267130/000119312517221422/d418599d8k.htm Stock price now indeed a bit above $60.50, which I think is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 Cabela’s Stockholders Approve Combination with Bass Pro Shops https://cabelas.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cabelas-stockholders-approve-combination-bass-pro-shops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chesko182 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 anyone know why it's falling almost 2% today? was looking at it for a short term position, 6% assuming closing at sep 30, 35% ann. anti-trust and shareholder aporoval are done, I think the only thing pending is the sale of the financial subsidiary. anything I am missing in terms of risks? It seems like a simple trade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 May be https://event-driven.com/cabelasbass-prosynovus-bank-sale-application-moved-atlanta-fed-board-governors-capital-one-portion-might-entail-occ-review/ http://www.innercitypress.com/bank4caponesynovus072817.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I partially sold my position in June around the time of my last post in this topic but I was a bit too greedy and my offers didn't all get filled. While I was on vacation mr. Market got the jitters about the fed possibly blocking this deal (as far as I understand) and CAB crashed. I only had a small position and decided to wait things out. I personally didn't see why the fed should block this deal but what do I know .. I didn't have enough conviction to buy more but was happy holding a small position. Today the fed finally approved the deal and I managed to sell my remaining shares post-market around $61. Lots of work for the last $1. Not the best idea ever (and my timing was horrible) but turned out ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I partially sold my position in June around the time of my last post in this topic but I was a bit too greedy and my offers didn't all get filled. While I was on vacation mr. Market got the jitters about the fed possibly blocking this deal (as far as I understand) and CAB crashed. I only had a small position and decided to wait things out. I personally didn't see why the fed should block this deal but what do I know .. I didn't have enough conviction to buy more but was happy holding a small position. Today the fed finally approved the deal and I managed to sell my remaining shares post-market around $61. Lots of work for the last $1. Not the best idea ever (and my timing was horrible) but turned out ok. The Fed finally approving the deal is great news! I underestimated the odds of the deal closing not once, but twice. This has been the most painful arbitrage position I have experienced. I originally though CAB was a safe way and low risk to park a 5% cash position. I averaged down in August and was crazy enough not to sell a single share. Lessons learned: my next arbitrage will definitely not exceed 2% of the portfolio, unless is it's a Buffett acquisition :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Sold all position. Thank you all for participating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like this closes within the next 3 weeks. Still have about 80c or 1.3% over that time. Not bad Sept 21 is the date mentioned Using IB, I can borrow for ~2.5% annually. 1,000 shares for 3 weeks costs me roughly $95 in interest and if the deal closes I make $800 from here. My only risk is the deal not closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Good idea, not my cup of tea. I am almost allergic to margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Not sure if it is a _good_ idea, but it is somewhat decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I closed out my second go around on this from 60.71 at 61.1. With half the expected 80c gain occurring within an hour, that was good enough. If it dips a tad lower I'll probably re-enter. This has been a money machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Deal closing Sept 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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