rkbabang Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 So I'll just give my thinking, I graduated ~6 months ago from a grad school with about 40K of "student debt". Now, I have cash in the bank to pay this off today if I wanted, I had the cash before I applied to school from saving for years. I said, screw paying for grad school in cash: I'm taking out loans, and sticking that money in the stock market. Turned out to be a good decision (probably 80% luck, 19% copying this board, 1% me being functional enough to navigate an online brokerage account). But now having graduated, it's apparently time to pay it back, and I'm in the same boat as your friends from the poker table. Heck I'm not even sure if I should pay it back. What are "they" going to do, come after me with a bat? Or maybe I just pay the minimum and kick the can down the road as long as possible. Maybe the gov't will eat the bill in 15 years. Why pay it back in that case? Maybe lock the interest rate, and sit on it. And you know, the only reason I'd consider this is because what you mentioned is so prevalent. NOBODY is paying these things, so the ones that do are the suckers at the table. I graduated with almost $60K worth of debt in the mid 90s. It took me 10 years to pay it off, but that of course is during my 20s to early 30s when I was just getting started in my profession, just getting married, buying my first house, having kids, buying a car... that monthly bill takes a toll on you. I didn't even realize how much it bothered me until it was paid off and it felt like there was this huge weight off my shoulders. Now that is with an engineering degree, a good job, with a good salary. If I was going through that for 10 years while working a job I hated, having nothing to do with what I had studied, thinking my degree was useless, I think those payments would have driven me crazy. I probably would have stopped paying them too. Many people find themselves in exactly that situation today. Only it isn't $60K it is $160K+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 So I'll just give my thinking, I graduated ~6 months ago from a grad school with about 40K of "student debt". Now, I have cash in the bank to pay this off today if I wanted, I had the cash before I applied to school from saving for years. I said, screw paying for grad school in cash: I'm taking out loans, and sticking that money in the stock market. Turned out to be a good decision (probably 80% luck, 19% copying this board, 1% me being functional enough to navigate an online brokerage account). But now having graduated, it's apparently time to pay it back, and I'm in the same boat as your friends from the poker table. Heck I'm not even sure if I should pay it back. What are "they" going to do, come after me with a bat? Or maybe I just pay the minimum and kick the can down the road as long as possible. Maybe the gov't will eat the bill in 15 years. Why pay it back in that case? Maybe lock the interest rate, and sit on it. And you know, the only reason I'd consider this is because what you mentioned is so prevalent. NOBODY is paying these things, so the ones that do are the suckers at the table. Your attitude isn't unpopular, but if these are just forgiven what happens to the people who paid them, or those who paid cash for school? To me this seems like a very quick way to drive a huge wedge between age groups. Those above 35-40 have a small amount or no school debt, and those under have a lot. But the old guys running companies are in the older bucket, any chance there could be some spiteful discrimination? My wife and I don't have any school debt. But if the government is just going to give out money why don't they just pay off my house or something? At the same time what universities are charging is bordering on comical. In the grab for as much cash as possible universities have done themselves in. What used to be a third-rail view, that going to college wasn't necessary is now catching on. I think they've made their own bed. I would hesitate to hire someone with a lot of debt including school debt. People who are skating close to the edge can quickly end up in financial distress which has repercussions for work performance as well as increases the risk of fraud or theft. Maybe it's not popular to say that out loud, but it's something I think about. The cost/benefit ratio of college education is at least an order of magnitude higher than even just 10 or 20 years ago. My elementary school age children will have a very different graduate level education experience than I did (B.S. and M.S. in engineering). Besides the fact that the debt is a huge burden, there are so many more options for self-directed learning these days. In fact, I expect prospective employers may look favorably on someone who has been proactive and entrepreneurial in obtaining their education. We will likely look for Advanced Placement classes, followed by community college options, with perhaps the last couple of years at a state school. And that's ONLY IF a college degree is actually required for what they want to do with their life. In a way it's a little sad that it has gotten to this point. But the incentive structure established decades ago has made a mockery of the college education system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmallCap Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 with all the anti college and college as it is today not working discussion going on here, let me ask a practical question. I have 3 children 7,5,3 I have no idea at this point about them going to college or not because it will depend on them obviously but also because I expect the situation around higher ed to be very different when they come to that point. So would you try to save up using any of the tax advantaged college saving vehicles for them or just hold out and see what comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I don't know about "most everyone," but it's common to hear that increasing interest rates (and thus, mortgage rates) results in decreasing new home sales. It makes sense that a more expensive home loan would lead to fewer home sales, but that's not what the data shows. Running a regression on new home sales and 30-year fixed mortgage rates since 1971 shows the two are more likely to be slightly positively correlated (though far from statistically significant). This makes sense as well: while rising rates makes purchasing a home more expense, the Fed is normally increasing rates when the economy is doing well, unemployment is low, salaries are increasing, etc. Interest (and mortgage) rate increases are thus a sign of good economic times which results in more home sales. Attached is a chart of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 with all the anti college and college as it is today not working discussion going on here, let me ask a practical question. I have 3 children 7,5,3 I have no idea at this point about them going to college or not because it will depend on them obviously but also because I expect the situation around higher ed to be very different when they come to that point. So would you try to save up using any of the tax advantaged college saving vehicles for them or just hold out and see what comes. I don't remember: is the college-saving vehicles tied to particular kid? If they are, then tough. (If not, then it's easy for you: save for 1.5 kid ;) ). What else can the money be used on? What are the penalties if you don't use it for college? Edit: also what's your other tax advantaged account situation? Are you maxing everything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 So would you try to save up using any of the tax advantaged college saving vehicles for them or just hold out and see what comes. I can only speak from North of the border but we have RESP's to save for university or college. The government adds 20% per year (up to $400 I believe). If the kids don't go to post secondary the principal portion can be transferred to our RRSP but the governement takes their portion back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Re: the college vs. non college debate: I remember talking with a teacher in high school about college. This was a guy who went back to school and got his teaching credentials when he was 35 or so. He was a chef in the meantime along with something else I don't remember. He told me that when taking the advice of adults about potential career paths you have to figure out the perspective of the person giving the advice. Think about advice coming from the average teacher. They went from school, to more school, and then back to school. Most teachers haven't spent a meaningful amount of time away from school. Thus, they're going to suggest a student goes to college. Going to college worked out pretty well for them. This teacher liked to suggest the apprenticeship program. But again, that was because he apprenticed to be a chef and it worked out well for him. The fact is if you went to university and are currently using your degree directly, I can just about guarantee you're pro-college. The folks who either didn't go or are now in something completely unrelated tend to be anti-school. The personal bias from both camps makes it hard to think whether both have really thought it through, or are assuming their personal situation applies to everyone. (I'm anti-college FWIW. I didn't go and I know I'm doing better than 90% of my high school class, at least financially) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I think that's a good perspective to have about the bias of the person who's advice you seek, or at the very least are forced to listen to. ;D I went but didn't finish, so count me in the group who didn't go I guess. I went for architecture but left after my 2nd year to become a general contractor and eventually built custom homes. And without a doubt those 2 years did me absolutely no good with regards to building custom homes. I'd love both our girls to go to university but I at this point I'm not really sure why..............maybe it's just my ego as a proud dad. Edit: you would think architecture and home building would go hand in hand. But the reality is, I would have been better off learning project management and some sort of interpersonal skills. Maybe as important as those, business skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 ...there are so many more options for self-directed learning these days. In fact, I expect prospective employers may look favorably on someone who has been proactive and entrepreneurial in obtaining their education. I really wish this were the case but it doesn't feel like it. I don't think enough people take advantage of Wikipedia and the thousand other avenues to educate themselves, so when someone claims to have this type education it isn't always taken seriously (the number of college educated folks without a job doesn't help). EdX certificates are nearly worthless at the moment, even though they represent exactly what you'd think you'd want from a potential employee. Beyond this, most employer interviews are subtly geared towards testing individuals that traveled the most common academic path (finance/business degree for bankers, ect). For instance, it's rare for a tech company to take a chance on a engineering/math/physics major as programmer, even if they may be qualified in spite of very little prior programming knowledge. From what I understand, a lot of the tech firms are trying to determine how quickly you learn as opposed to testing with brain teasers or quizzing for rote responses learned in academia. We'll see if this method is any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 College is great for someone with little initiative because it automatically bumps them to a level they couldn't get to from just working on their own. I agree with this and think it applies to most people, including me 20 years ago. (See the post about bias.) Many of the posts in this thread talk about what someone could do without going to college. But realistically most people would never do those things on their own. Also, nearly everyone I know loved their time in college, and I suspect it bettered their lives in many ways. Is that worth $150,000 in debt? I doubt it. But I think the experience is worth something. An earlier comment also cautioned against "high end" schools. I disagree with that as well. Being around thousands of very smart people your age when you're 18-22 is invaluable. Plus, most "high end" schools offer generous financial aid, so very few have to pay full price to attend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Mainly you have to stick with the Outsider for a Decade or two. Now I feel I can identify Outsiders pretty well it just comes down to the performance which some of it has to do with luck. Can you say who you consider to be current Outsiders and invest into? Thanks Sure, Mark Leonard of Constellation Software, Selim Bassoul of Middleby Corp, and Brian Jellison of Roper Technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 For instance, it's rare for a tech company to take a chance on a engineering/math/physics major as programmer, even if they may be qualified in spite of very little prior programming knowledge. Not true in general. Our dept has tons non-CS majors and our group at one point was 50% non-CS. Of course, candidate's chances go up a lot if they have engineering/math/physics major and they know programming well. Specific situations may wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Mainly you have to stick with the Outsider for a Decade or two. Now I feel I can identify Outsiders pretty well it just comes down to the performance which some of it has to do with luck. Can you say who you consider to be current Outsiders and invest into? Thanks Sure, Mark Leonard of Constellation Software, Selim Bassoul of Middleby Corp, and Brian Jellison of Roper Technology. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LR1400 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What's wrong with going to college, learning a little about humanities, history, etc. and being a well rounded person? There's more to college than preparing for a career. It's fun, you learn social skills and interact with multiple types of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What's wrong with going to college, learning a little about humanities, history, etc. and being a well rounded person? There's more to college than preparing for a career. It's fun, you learn social skills and interact with multiple types of people. There is nothing wrong with that. I don't think anyone on this thread has said there was. There is nothing wrong with buying a private jet either. The problem is that both of those things are quite expensive. Remember the statement that started this discussion wasn't "college is worthless" it was: The % of US pop that attends college will decline. I think with the price rising at the rate it has been, the truth of that statement is almost indisputable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 It's all about knowing and keeping your emotional side in check. Buffett and Munger(in particular) are exactly correct. Removing one's ignorance is something most cannot do and are deserving of Munger's "idiot" label. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 What's wrong with going to college, learning a little about humanities, history, etc. and being a well rounded person? There's more to college than preparing for a career. It's fun, you learn social skills and interact with multiple types of people. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that by itself. Undergraduate for me was the best time of my life. The PROBLEM is that skool is being SOLD to people now as a way to get ahead in life and being a solid investment. It has to be because it is getting so expensive. Many people are taking on life altering debt in order to do that. That is a problem. Many people are going to skool because they believe it will allow them to enter "middle class". That is a problem. All of these problems are magnified greatly at graduate skool level. Many, many, many people in the USA are going to be living lower class standards of living and will be relegated to poverty because of their educations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Most folk with diplomas or degrees would have been better served if they had gone to the trades. Problem is that in NA telling everyone that your kid is a tradesman doesn’t reflect well on you – so the kid gets pushed into something more suitable. Sometimes it works; most often the result is just debt, and resentment. Good tradesmen run their own firms; and hire the run-of-the-mill, or apprenticing, to do the work for them. They all have their trade certificate, and many go back to school on-line to upgrade their business skills to the master’s level. Very good livings, well above what many professionals make, and much more secure. But they chose to go back to school … are motivated … and come with real world experience. The school itself really doesn’t matter; the ability to do it on your own time does. The pushed kid doesn’t want to be there, buys the best ‘name’ school they can afford, and parties away the opportunity; hoping to substitute ‘name’ for experience. Then cry’s on graduation when they discover it does not work – because they aren’t connected enough. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongHaul Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 The government is going to eat the cost on TRILLIONS of student loan debt. I'm not sure if they will, but they should. Government policy allowed banks to lend absurd amounts to anyone, because borrowers can't default on it. So the banks lent. And schools raised their prices in turn. Allowing more of a free market would have created a totally different landscape than what we have now. Everyone wanting to study 19th century poetry could still do it, just without 150K of debt. The government failed. I might have agreed with you until a few weeks ago... The "youngsters" (very late 20's & early 30's) I work with are almost ALL on IBR (income based repayment) plans for their student loans. They pay between $0 & $200 a month on their loans. This isn't even covering interest payments. Another eye opening thing was that I was playing poker in Greektown Casino with a rough crew of characters. Surprisingly, the subject of student loans came up & started grousing about them. Several players openly laughed at me for paying them back. They said that student loans are "paper" bills. They are ACTIVELY gaming the system, and paying back nothing or nominal amounts. Several people at the table said this! One even had a son at the next table...his son was doing the same thing. Like father, like son! There were six people who had similar stories. One guy was paying his in full. These guys LOUDLY & EXPLICITLY expressed their contempt for their educations and the chances that the government will get paid back. I was shocked at how many people in that group of people had student loans...and their attitudes. I suspect this is fairly common... Thus, the government is going to take a huge bath. You've got a (large?) group of people with open contempt & a large group of people (co-workers) who want to pay back the loans, but simply don't have the capability and likely never will. If one fails to pay back their govt student loan on purpose and the govt eats the loss then it is like stealing from your fellow citizens. I despise that kind of behavior. When one is 17 or 18 and picking whether to go to college one generally knows little about the world and themselves. It is a great time to con a person into going to and an expensive school by promising good stuff at the end. One may get out with a useless degree and find he has essentially been conned. The school has the money and you have a piece of paper that may have value or may not. The for profit schools seemed pretty bad. I suppose in the end you did get an education of sorts that is not in the books. I am skeptical of college for many people (stem is probably fine). Much of the soft sciences can be learned on your own by reading, etc. I like practical philosophy but that would be a costly learning experience in college. I think it is a total shame that the trades are not looked up to more as in Germany. The skill level required and experience can be enormous for working on all types of things that require your hands. Think of airplanes or big pump mechanics. I sometimes wonder what my experiences in life would have been if I pursued an alternative track of skipping college. Perhaps I would be wiser today. Schooling is just one part of an education. Also - here is some food for thought. Take someone who went to a top Ivy League School at 22 vs someone who never went. If the Ivy guy stopped reading and learning while the no college guy kept reading a lot and learning over 20+ yrs who probably knows more a decade in and who would your most likely rather hire assuming similar intelligence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would think that the posters on this board are in the top 1% as far as self-motivation and can educate themselves. I am not so sure the majority of the population could do this without some mechanism such as grades and the subsequent fear of being dropped from school. So they probably need to go to college. I have found most students don’t study till right before an exam. So the more exams you give in a semester the more the students will learn. With that said, many of the top rated universities in the US will not give Ds and Fs. The result has been rampant grade inflation, http://www.gradeinflation.com So I suspect there is a lot less learning today then there was 30 years ago at universities. Let me give two examples. Example 1. We hired a faculty member who was a faculty member at an Ivy league school. His first semester with us was this Fall 2015 semester. A couple of weeks ago he came to see me. He asked, “I have two students who have not done anything this semester what do I need to do?” I told him, “Give them Fs..” His response was , “Can I do that? I couldn’t give Ds and Fs at my previous institution.” He said, “In similar cases they would officially drop the students from the class even if it was the last day of the semester so that they did not have to give Ds or Fs.” Example 2 One of our students got his Ph.D. and went to a prestigious private university, not an ivy, as an assistant professor. He was not my student, but we collaborated when he was a graduate student and published some papers together. So I know him well. This is the story he told me. He would give Ds and Fs. Then he would be called in to meet with his department head and the dean of engineering. They would tell him, “We do not have D and F students here.” His response was “They would get Ds and Fs if they were at the university I graduated from.” He was asked to leave. He has been successful at another state institution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorsiacapital Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would think that the posters on this board are in the top 1% as far as self-motivation and can educate themselves. I am not so sure the majority of the population could do this without some mechanism such as grades and the subsequent fear of being dropped from school. So they probably need to go to college. I have found most students don’t study till right before an exam. So the more exams you give in a semester the more the students will learn. With that said, many of the top rated universities in the US will not give Ds and Fs. The result has been rampant grade inflation, http://www.gradeinflation.com So I suspect there is a lot less learning today then there was 30 years ago at universities. Let me give two examples. Example 1. We hired a faculty member who was a faculty member at an Ivy league school. His first semester with us was this Fall 2015 semester. A couple of weeks ago he came to see me. He asked, “I have two students who have not done anything this semester what do I need to do?” I told him, “Give them Fs..” His response was , “Can I do that? I couldn’t give Ds and Fs at my previous institution.” He said, “In similar cases they would officially drop the students from the class even if it was the last day of the semester so that they did not have to give Ds or Fs.” Example 2 One of our students got his Ph.D. and went to a prestigious private university, not an ivy, as an assistant professor. He was not my student, but we collaborated when he was a graduate student and published some papers together. So I know him well. This is the story he told me. He would give Ds and Fs. Then he would be called in to meet with his department head and the dean of engineering. They would tell him, “We do not have D and F students here.” His response was “They would get Ds and Fs if they were at the university I graduated from.” He was asked to leave. He has been successful at another state institution. I'm sure there has been grade inflation - although on Ds and Fs, I would note that Harvard was singing songs about the "Gentleman's C" back in the early 1900s - http://fdrsuite.org/blog/?p=3082 Also, the number of high school students attending college has risen from 45% in the 1960s to around 65% today (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/26/business/fewer-us-high-school-graduates-opt-for-college.html?_r=0) - so perhaps students are learning less per student, but the generation is learning more as a whole. I assume your argument for why giving Ds and Fs is good is that it motivates a fire under a kid's butt to learn? That's probably true, but if the profession he's entering is both selective and grade focused, won't the C serve the same signaling function once we all know the code only it won't have the same deleterious effects on the kid's ability to stay in college... As for college in general, I'm sure you can do great without it, but to gain access to many white-collar industries, a college degree is simply a necessity. Whether that's normatively desirable is another issue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would think that the posters on this board are in the top 1% as far as self-motivation and can educate themselves. I am not so sure the majority of the population could do this without some mechanism such as grades and the subsequent fear of being dropped from school. So they probably need to go to college. I have found most students don’t study till right before an exam. So the more exams you give in a semester the more the students will learn. With that said, many of the top rated universities in the US will not give Ds and Fs. The result has been rampant grade inflation, http://www.gradeinflation.com So I suspect there is a lot less learning today then there was 30 years ago at universities. Let me give two examples. Example 1. We hired a faculty member who was a faculty member at an Ivy league school. His first semester with us was this Fall 2015 semester. A couple of weeks ago he came to see me. He asked, “I have two students who have not done anything this semester what do I need to do?” I told him, “Give them Fs..” His response was , “Can I do that? I couldn’t give Ds and Fs at my previous institution.” He said, “In similar cases they would officially drop the students from the class even if it was the last day of the semester so that they did not have to give Ds or Fs.” Example 2 One of our students got his Ph.D. and went to a prestigious private university, not an ivy, as an assistant professor. He was not my student, but we collaborated when he was a graduate student and published some papers together. So I know him well. This is the story he told me. He would give Ds and Fs. Then he would be called in to meet with his department head and the dean of engineering. They would tell him, “We do not have D and F students here.” His response was “They would get Ds and Fs if they were at the university I graduated from.” He was asked to leave. He has been successful at another state institution. I'm sure there has been grade inflation - although on Ds and Fs, I would note that Harvard was singing songs about the "Gentleman's C" back in the early 1900s - http://fdrsuite.org/blog/?p=3082 Also, the number of high school students attending college has risen from 45% in the 1960s to around 65% today (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/26/business/fewer-us-high-school-graduates-opt-for-college.html?_r=0) - so perhaps students are learning less per student, but the generation is learning more as a whole. I assume your argument for why giving Ds and Fs is good is that it motivates a fire under a kid's butt to learn? That's probably true, but if the profession he's entering is both selective and grade focused, won't the C serve the same signaling function once we all know the code only it won't have the same deleterious effects on the kid's ability to stay in college... As for college in general, I'm sure you can do great without it, but to gain access to many white-collar industries, a college degree is simply a necessity. Whether that's normatively desirable is another issue... That all makes sense to me. I'm sure many people would like to have a white collar job, but otherwise can't b/c of lack of formal education and/or the proper connections. One thing I'll add to this topic... an obsession with wealth maximization is probably not a good way to spend your life. Can lead to incredibly stressful experiences, vs. being comfortable with what you have and being able to adapt downward. If I didn't have a decent asset base and never got my current job, I'd probably be a part time employee of Starbucks or a pizza place and rooming with five other guys, just so I could do as little work as possible. A strong work ethic is generally considered a positive thing, but at least for me, I've found there's much more value in life than working hard. It's much more interesting just to read and otherwise do what you want most of the time, instead of dedicating more than half of your waking hours to working (including transit, getting ready, etc) in exchange for two days a week where you get to do what you want if you're lucky and haven't entered any other commitments. Purposely building a life around doing as little work and maintenance work as possible is very interesting, one I've found preferable to the alternative. This includes cutting down hours at work to have more free time, and either neglecting or outsourcing what other people consider essential. I once went three months wearing the same set of clothes when I lived in Virginia, when I figured out that either no one cared or dared to complain about it. I have no edge in doing laundry and it's not something I find interesting, so by saving a few hours a week on it, I could then allocate that time to more interesting activities such as hanging out with friends, reading, and other leisure activities. It was a good experience to have. One of the most useful tricks I found was just not owning any furniture, or pretty much anything besides clothes, a television for video games, and a computer. I was in Virginia for three-and-a-half years, and I never owned any furniture (except a blow-up mattress my brother left behind from when he was visiting, which I later cut up). When I eventually moved, that made packing and cleaning the apartment complex very easy. It probably saved 90% of the typical effort and cost that's normally associated with a cross-country move. I now live with my family again, so of course I use the furniture already at the house, but if I move again I plan on doing the exact same thing. Furniture isn't worth the added hassle, and neither are most things that are superficially necessary/and or expected of you by society. For most of them, at least with the people I was associating with, I found I could get away with not participating. If there was one phrase to define my life, it is extreme laziness. It's worked pretty well for me, which is probably the exact opposite of what you would ordinarily expect. So here's to doubling down on laziness in the year ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would think that the posters on this board are in the top 1% as far as self-motivation and can educate themselves. I am not so sure the majority of the population could do this without some mechanism such as grades and the subsequent fear of being dropped from school. So they probably need to go to college. I have found most students don’t study till right before an exam. So the more exams you give in a semester the more the students will learn. With that said, many of the top rated universities in the US will not give Ds and Fs. The result has been rampant grade inflation, http://www.gradeinflation.com So I suspect there is a lot less learning today then there was 30 years ago at universities. Let me give two examples. Example 1. We hired a faculty member who was a faculty member at an Ivy league school. His first semester with us was this Fall 2015 semester. A couple of weeks ago he came to see me. He asked, “I have two students who have not done anything this semester what do I need to do?” I told him, “Give them Fs..” His response was , “Can I do that? I couldn’t give Ds and Fs at my previous institution.” He said, “In similar cases they would officially drop the students from the class even if it was the last day of the semester so that they did not have to give Ds or Fs.” Example 2 One of our students got his Ph.D. and went to a prestigious private university, not an ivy, as an assistant professor. He was not my student, but we collaborated when he was a graduate student and published some papers together. So I know him well. This is the story he told me. He would give Ds and Fs. Then he would be called in to meet with his department head and the dean of engineering. They would tell him, “We do not have D and F students here.” His response was “They would get Ds and Fs if they were at the university I graduated from.” He was asked to leave. He has been successful at another state institution. I'm sure there has been grade inflation - although on Ds and Fs, I would note that Harvard was singing songs about the "Gentleman's C" back in the early 1900s - http://fdrsuite.org/blog/?p=3082 Also, the number of high school students attending college has risen from 45% in the 1960s to around 65% today (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/26/business/fewer-us-high-school-graduates-opt-for-college.html?_r=0) - so perhaps students are learning less per student, but the generation is learning more as a whole. I assume your argument for why giving Ds and Fs is good is that it motivates a fire under a kid's butt to learn? That's probably true, but if the profession he's entering is both selective and grade focused, won't the C serve the same signaling function once we all know the code only it won't have the same deleterious effects on the kid's ability to stay in college... As for college in general, I'm sure you can do great without it, but to gain access to many white-collar industries, a college degree is simply a necessity. Whether that's normatively desirable is another issue... My Wife's a prof. And my dad was one as well. If I had the same marks now as I did when I graduated high school I would not get into a Canadian University... 28 years of gradual grade inflation in high school. University gave me confidence. ie. I took a forestry course in 3rd. year. The prof. didn't want to let me in because I hadn't done botany. That just created a challenge. I got the highest mark in the course and I was drunk a third of the time. Would I have got the same confidence doing a trade. I suspect so but I may never have discovered investing. Wanted to be an electrician but I am somewhat colour blind which presented a minor problem.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Scott - I love it. You'll be hard pressed to convince me you are lazy though, or even undiscplined. Al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 To the topic, i still believe that market timing is possible and that Elliottwave analysis works more often than not. (if done right) But i am 100% sure that everybody in this forum will disagree with me. (ok, 99%) ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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