Spekulatius Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Shorting a stock that Buffett owns... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It makes no sense to me either. This stock is owned by deep pocketed investors, not retail. I think folks short this as a derivative play of an SHLD short, because the borrow is way cheaper and there is more liquidity. It's appears a pretty stupid play, because a Sears bankruptcy will in my opinion not impact the investment thesis and in fact even may accelerate the value creation. I would laugh if SRG on the day of SHLD bankruptcy announcement gaps down $3 and then recovers the losses before the day is over. Wouldn't surprise me the least and I don't think there are quite a few in investors willing to step in when SRG shares fall, but what do I know. disclosure: I don't own SRG Don't you think SRG still needs some time to develop more properties to have the cash flows to stand by its own? If we see a Sears bankruptcy too soon, SRG might have to hold the bag with too many undeveloped properties and their existing costs etc. Perhaps you think SRG is already pass this point, not sure... I think they will be fine, even if SHLD were to go bankrupt tomorrow. For one, SHLD going bankrupt does not mean that all the stores will close and stop paying rent at the same time. They will have to close some and probably keep others open to liquidate properly, especially if they are cash positive on a store basis. I also think SRG would raise funds easily with a rights offering. Sure, the stock might go down a little, but even that is not a sure thing. I think Eddie would be happy to pump money into this business and WEB would not have an issue either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Shorting a stock that Buffett owns... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It makes no sense to me either. This stock is owned by deep pocketed investors, not retail. I think folks short this as a derivative play of an SHLD short, because the borrow is way cheaper and there is more liquidity. It's appears a pretty stupid play, because a Sears bankruptcy will in my opinion not impact the investment thesis and in fact even may accelerate the value creation. I would laugh if SRG on the day of SHLD bankruptcy announcement gaps down $3 and then recovers the losses before the day is over. Wouldn't surprise me the least and I don't think there are quite a few in investors willing to step in when SRG shares fall, but what do I know. disclosure: I don't own SRG Don't you think SRG still needs some time to develop more properties to have the cash flows to stand by its own? If we see a Sears bankruptcy too soon, SRG might have to hold the bag with too many undeveloped properties and their existing costs etc. Perhaps you think SRG is already pass this point, not sure... That is a good point - a Sears bankruptcy would likely impact the short term finances of Seritage and would likely force Seritage to more aggressively obtain funds for development but SRG has many levers it can pull to finance development. There would be any number of potential joint venture partners who could finance the re-development, that would, of course, entail SRG giving up some of the upside of these but these JV re-development projects would still generate significant value for SRG. The point is I think the funding concerns that I've heard some institutional investors mention about SRG are not fully warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylerdurden Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I might be wrong but If Sears goes bankrupt tomorrow, SRG might end up getting many properties from Sears right away rather than gradually as the way it is set up now. I think they have to pay the costs of all these properties like utilities, property taxes perhaps etc. so that was a potential concern for some contributors on this forum before. In that type of scenario it might also be tougher to find JV partners as well since there will be a lot of properties going into a market which might be already oversupplied because of what's going on with the retail these days. I agree that they'd do a rights issuing if they need to so long-term it could be still fine even under that scenario. Personally I think Lampert and Berkowitz will play around with Sears and float the company as long as they need in order to make sure SRG becomes independent at the end. Only at that time they'd pull the plug on Sears I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scorpioncapital Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Sears rental income is estimated to be 50% of total rents by end 2017, so extrapolating ... 36% by 2018, 22% by 2019. That would put it at 33 million by then. If total SRG NOI is estimated to be around a 10% yield at the end of this process ($2.4 billion market cap, $240m noi) then 330m or ~$6/share of permanently lost rental income...but the diversification of the end portfolio I think will add more than $330m of value. According to their latest presentation, they show that $64m of incremental 3rd party rents would translate to $481m net value creation. So half of that or 32m would be $250m. $80m difference...or $1.43/share loss. could take longer. could require more leverage. could be more expensive. two thoughts - -the current environment is killer. Would you rather develop at 2% rates or 5%? The more they develop faster the better, as the cost will be somewhat lower. -if you knew the end result, would you prefer a volatile stock with lots of noise or one that moves up very slowly? Would you prefer to have lots of short sellers who sometimes get their day, and sometimes get clobbered? Buffett I think said at the AGM that SRG will NOT do as well as Berkshire. But here's the difference. Berkshire doesn't have 10-15% down days or even a week. But I've seen SRG go down that amount a few times in just 1.5 years. So even if it may not do as well, I wonder if someone who can play the volatility could in fact do just as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NBL0303 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 I might be wrong but If Sears goes bankrupt tomorrow, SRG might end up getting many properties from Sears right away rather than gradually as the way it is set up now. I think they have to pay the costs of all these properties like utilities, property taxes perhaps etc. so that was a potential concern for some contributors on this forum before. In that type of scenario it might also be tougher to find JV partners as well since there will be a lot of properties going into a market which might be already oversupplied because of what's going on with the retail these days. According to Simon and Macerich they are just waiting on SRG to do more joint ventures and they are very pleased with the current SRG JVs (the CEOs of both have commented on this publicly) so I don't believe there is a lack of interest from JV partners for SRG re-development projects. I believe that SRG is trying to avoid going that route and is trying to hold on to all of as many properties as they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylerdurden Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I might be wrong but If Sears goes bankrupt tomorrow, SRG might end up getting many properties from Sears right away rather than gradually as the way it is set up now. I think they have to pay the costs of all these properties like utilities, property taxes perhaps etc. so that was a potential concern for some contributors on this forum before. In that type of scenario it might also be tougher to find JV partners as well since there will be a lot of properties going into a market which might be already oversupplied because of what's going on with the retail these days. According to Simon and Macerich they are just waiting on SRG to do more joint ventures and they are very pleased with the current SRG JVs (the CEOs of both have commented on this publicly) so I don't believe there is a lack of interest from JV partners for SRG re-development projects. I believe that SRG is trying to avoid going that route and is trying to hold on to all of as many properties as they can. Understood. Good point. JV partners would be interested with higher quality assets anyways so as long as SRG provides them those better quality assets, they'd be happy campers I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 The Aventura Mall (Miami/Bal Harbour) Development is going through. Here are some pieces of an article on it. As many know this is a valuable piece of dirt for Seritage. The South Florida Business Journal has confirmed that the Sears near the Aventura Mall will begin its liquidation sale April 28 and close for business in mid-July. The site at 19505 Biscayne Blvd. in Aventura will be the location of a major project as the property owner, Seritage Growth Properties (NYSE: SRG), begins construction on Esplanade at Aventura, a large mixed-use development. A Kmart on property that Seritage also owns at 1460 W. 49th St. in Hialeah will begin its liquidation sale April 27 and also close in mid-July. Seritage has not yet revealed its plans for the Kmart site, but aims to start construction by the end of the year on Esplanade at Aventura, which the real estate investment trust bills as a "world-class shopping and dining destination." The first phase of Esplanade at Aventura will total approximately 215,000 square feet of retail, restaurant and entertainment venues and is expected to break ground later this year. There is not yet information available about how many jobs the project would create. "The Esplanade at Aventura is poised to deliver long-term value to the community through an enhanced retail experience and the creation of a substantial number of jobs," said Jason Chudoba, a spokesman for Seritage. "We appreciate the support we have received from the city of Aventura and the community, and look forward to sharing further updates in the near future." Aventura officials granted Seritage site plan approval for the project in December 2016. Recapturing the lease from Sears was a step forward for the Esplanade project. Earlier this year, Sears Holdings Corp. (Nasdaq: SHLD) announced the completion of a sale of 235 Sears- and Kmart-branded stores to Seritage along with other holdings, effectively spinning off the properties into Seritage, which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on July 6, 2015. Under that agreement, Seritage has the right recapture some properties, and did so with both Sears in Aventura and Kmart in Hialeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Could you link the article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2017/04/06/sears-store-near-aventura-mall-kmart-in-hialeah.html Could you link the article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Barron's turns bullish on Lampert: http://www.barrons.com/articles/lamperts-seritage-strategy-could-lead-to-long-term-gains-1492836691 Pabrai doesn’t think an equity raise is likely; he says Seritage will have no trouble lining up private capital. In addition to Lampert, he ticks off a list of potential investors that could include Berkshire Hathaway, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square, and Cascade Investment, Bill Gates’ investment vehicle. He puts the maximum capital raise at $1 billion, followed by $1 billion over a few years for redevelopment projects. The big risk for current shareholders would be the extent of any potential dilution. That, too, could lower the long-term stock opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylerdurden Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 According to this week's Barron, Mohnish Pabrai sold all SRG shares. My conviction on this name quadrupled now just based on this development:-) I think he sold Southwest in a short period of time too so I guess he is losing his patience a little bit these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glorysk87 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 According to this week's Barron, Mohnish Pabrai sold all SRG shares. My conviction on this name quadrupled now just based on this development:-) I think he sold Southwest in a short period of time too so I guess he is losing his patience a little bit these days... reading between the lines it seems that he plans on buying back in once SHLD files and SRG ostensibly gets hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Buffett still holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylerdurden Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 According to this week's Barron, Mohnish Pabrai sold all SRG shares. My conviction on this name quadrupled now just based on this development:-) I think he sold Southwest in a short period of time too so I guess he is losing his patience a little bit these days... reading between the lines it seems that he plans on buying back in once SHLD files and SRG ostensibly gets hit hard. "I might take another bite at the apple" that's what he says so if SHLD files before 2019-2020 according to his estimates he might get a better deal. If not, perhaps no mo SRG apple for Mr Pabrai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 I think he sold Southwest in a short period of time too so I guess he is losing his patience a little bit these days... Maybe he did a bit of research and realized their talk of flying to Europe was an absolute pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaufort Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 If anyone attends the annual meeting and can post notes, I would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628063/999999999717005898/filename1.pdf ORDER GRANTING CONFIDENTIAL TREATMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 excluded information from the following exhibit will not be released to the public for the time period specified: Exhibit 10.4 through July 7, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Is there an obvious set of possible implications here or is it a Total Mystery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowAppreciation Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1628063/000156459017008851/srg-ex991_6.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glorysk87 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 by my math, SRG is a mere 3 quarters of redevelopment activity away from being "safe" from a worst case scenario, assuming they continue to redevelop at the same pace. by that, i mean that by the beginning of 2018, even if Sears declares bankruptcy, ceases all rent payments immediately, and SRG is on the hook for all costs associated with old Sears properties, they'll be cash flow positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTermView Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 It's exciting that La Jolla and Carson are now both 100% recapture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koshigoe Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 pg 9 has the layout for the new orlando build. Phase 2 includes residential. It seems like the old enclosed mall concept really is dying and transitioning into a community feel with lots of pads in the parking lots. http://www.cityoforlando.net/greenworks/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2016/11/MPBStaffReport2016-11_MPL2016-00048.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tylerdurden Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 by my math, SRG is a mere 3 quarters of redevelopment activity away from being "safe" from a worst case scenario, assuming they continue to redevelop at the same pace. by that, i mean that by the beginning of 2018, even if Sears declares bankruptcy, ceases all rent payments immediately, and SRG is on the hook for all costs associated with old Sears properties, they'll be cash flow positive. Interesting. thanks for sharing. According to the recent Barron's article, Pabrai thinks they are safe early 2019 or late 2018 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTShine Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 From my read of the shareholders letter, the CEO expects to start over $500 million of development in the next 12 months. Assuming they'll only start developments that currently have, or will soon have, tenants for the space, and assuming they're only doing redevelopments with an expected 12% return on new capital, then we can expect $60+ million in additional annual rent from this $500+ million investment. They'll likely raise some capital for this via a financing package. But, with Lambert, Buffett and Berkowitz as shareholders I'm not worried about satisfying this capital need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTermView Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 I'm trying to figure out how long it will take to cover key expenses without relying on Sears. The 2017 Q1 supplemental shows key expenses for the first quarter: ($ thousands) $4,472 Property Operating $12,422 Real estate taxes $6,274 General and administrative $16,592 Interest expense --------- $39,760 Annualizing brings the total to about $160 million per year. The supplemental breaks down Third-Party rent: Annual PSF GLA Rent $44,528 $12.97 3,432 In-Place Third-Party $47,194 $18.21 2,591 SNO Third-Party --------- $91,722 thousand The remaining Third-Party rent needed is around $160 million - $92 million or $68 million The supplemental shows that over the last 4 quarters SRG has leased 2.4 million square feet at an average of $16.06 per sf: Quarter GLA A_Rent PSF Q2 2016 422 $7,240 $17.15 Q3 2016 543 $7,470 $13.74 Q4 2016 891 $14,900 $16.72 Q1 2017 535 $8,780 $16.41 ------ --------- -------- 2,391 $38,390 $16.06 If they keep going at the same pace then $68 million/$16.06 means they need to lease about another 4.2 million square feet. If they keep re-leasing 2.4 million sf per year then they'll re-lease another 4.2 million sf within 2 years, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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