RadMan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 perhaps hostile is the wrong word. in my view to dismiss the declines in run rate revenue/NOI because of covid may not be the correct thing to do. but hey, scoreboard, SRG is SuRG-ing and that's all that matters! In that case, yes I'm not dismissing it -- SRG went from covering interest expenses with its leases outstanding to not covering and as Guy put it -- relying on the grace of others. Berkshire could have took it under, but have given it room given the covid situation, securing properties. But at the same time, SRG is also selling income producing properties to cover expenses and cash flows, which has also impacted reported lease income. So, again, covid has changed the business and sources of liquidity, but once the storm passes, it will be a show me type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krapdivad Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 what's going on?! SRG at $22, a short squeeze? Some hedge fonds need to liquidate their short positions due to GME rising so high. I agree with the high short interest. Could also be related to the pop in AMC since they're one of SRG's tenants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Anyone know why the stock is dipping today? Really appreciate it if you can share you insights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Thank you! This helps sooth novice investors such as myself. I read elsewhere the dirt SRG owns is worth $17.00 per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 well there's $28.6 / share of 7% debt maturing in 3.5 years so hopefully there's a lot more than $17/share of assets. (I know you’re talking about just the dirt, but point stands) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Thank you! This helps sooth novice investors such as myself. I read elsewhere the dirt SRG owns is worth $17.00 per share. This was a claim made by Phil Town a few months ago, but he sold a chunk of his position after hearing the news that Ben Schall was leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 well there's $28.6 / share of 7% debt maturing in 3.5 years so hopefully there's a lot more than $17/share of assets. (I know you’re talking about just the dirt, but point stands) Soothe him with one set of facts, give him a heart attack with another :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Anyone know why the stock is dipping today? Really appreciate it if you can share you insights This? www.forbes.com/sites/michaellisicky/2021/01/30/sears-adds-another-10-stores-to-its-perpetual-list-of-store-closures/?sh=7eff9e42559e edit: nope, none of these appear to be SRG properties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 You touched on an interesting subject. Technically SRG is not a candidate for Phil Town’s investment model, and yet he had a sizeable position in it. He later reduced his position in what seemed to be a response to the shakeup in management. It’s all puzzling and out-of-character. One would think SRG would gain momentum with Berkshire calling all the shots, but not Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 You touched on an interesting subject. Technically SRG is not a candidate for Phil Town’s investment model, and yet he had a sizeable position in it. He later reduced his position in what seemed to be a response to the shakeup in management. It’s all puzzling and out-of-character. One would think SRG would gain momentum with Berkshire calling all the shots, but not Phil. My impression is that he liked SRG primarily due to the other Gurus involved (Buffett, Pabrai, Spier) and yes it's confusing that a change in management caused him to change course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I thought the same thing and it also puzzled me. What does he mean when he mentioned Berkshire can change the management in Seritage. I don’t remember seeing that anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattR Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I thought the same thing and it also puzzled me. What does he mean when he mentioned Berkshire can change the management in Seritage. I don’t remember seeing that anywhere? Berkshire owns the debt of SRG, so they could force them to change management. I don't think this is the case however. The CEO got an offer from a company much bigger then SRG and it could be that the CFO is overworked. For me SRG is still undervalued and while it might take some time I think it will double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 disclosure is not required for short positions in the US. disclosure is required for option positions however, so you can tell if a given fund owns puts on a company (on the various providers like whalewisdom.com) Short interest for a given stock is available on various websites (like the one you linked). I don't know where they get their information (maybe from the exchanges). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 disclosure is not required for short positions in the US. disclosure is required for option positions however, so you can tell if a given fund owns puts on a company (on the various providers like whalewisdom.com) Short interest for a given stock is available on various websites (like the one you linked). I don't know where they get their information (maybe from the exchanges). Very helpful, thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? S3 Partners provide short data but I have no idea how credible it is. This source was recommended to me over on the GME thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golonginvestor Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? S3 Partners provide short data but I have no idea how credible it is. This source was recommended to me over on the GME thread. You can also find it in the statistics section of yahoo finance, it also gives you the last time they pulled the information. Right now it is showing Jan 15th. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRG/key-statistics?p=SRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? S3 Partners provide short data but I have no idea how credible it is. This source was recommended to me over on the GME thread. You can also find it in the statistics section of yahoo finance, it also gives you the last time they pulled the information. Right now it is showing Jan 15th. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRG/key-statistics?p=SRG Calendar for short interest reporting: https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surroundedbymultiples Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 You touched on an interesting subject. Technically SRG is not a candidate for Phil Town’s investment model, and yet he had a sizeable position in it. He later reduced his position in what seemed to be a response to the shakeup in management. It’s all puzzling and out-of-character. One would think SRG would gain momentum with Berkshire calling all the shots, but not Phil. My impression is that he liked SRG primarily due to the other Gurus involved (Buffett, Pabrai, Spier) and yes it's confusing that a change in management caused him to change course. Hello everyone. 1st post. This does seem to be out of character for Phil Town to get involved BUT he does recommend a small % of your portfolio for 'risky biz' - if you so choose. And yes his go to gurus are seriously involved. He did state that the story changed with the management change, as mentioned, AND he made a very large profit - all while staying in. I like how he played it - so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? S3 Partners provide short data but I have no idea how credible it is. This source was recommended to me over on the GME thread. You can also find it in the statistics section of yahoo finance, it also gives you the last time they pulled the information. Right now it is showing Jan 15th. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRG/key-statistics?p=SRG Calendar for short interest reporting: https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest Thank you! Out of curiosity, what tools do you use to track this stock? I am aware morningstar and valueline offer subscription, but is there any value to paying for data that may potentially be available for free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shamelesscloner Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? S3 Partners provide short data but I have no idea how credible it is. This source was recommended to me over on the GME thread. You can also find it in the statistics section of yahoo finance, it also gives you the last time they pulled the information. Right now it is showing Jan 15th. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRG/key-statistics?p=SRG Calendar for short interest reporting: https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest Thank you! Out of curiosity, what tools do you use to track this stock? I am aware morningstar and valueline offer subscription, but is there any value to paying for data that may potentially be available for free? I get access to both Morningstar and Value Line through Fairfax County Public Library non-resident membership ($30 per year). But I don't use any tools to track the stock... my YouTube subscribers poke me when things come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistachio_Lawyer Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It probably went up because it’s heavily shorted, particularly by a breed of hedge funds that’s long tech / short retail ( or long growth /short value), and those HF’s got clobbered this month (regardless of whether or not they were short GameStop). The short covering (and maybe some people buying to capitalize on it) caused the stock to go up. This is reversing today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow. The move up / down is not related to SRG’s fundamentals but rather it trading in sympathy with the likes of GME TR DDS FIZZ etc I am following up on this. I have a rookie question. How would I be able to verify if a stock is been heavily shorted? As I understand it, https://www.highshortinterest.com/ lists shorted stocks, but where do they get their information? I am curious because we're assuming those that shorted GME also shorted SRG and had to cover the latter to make up for the former. How would I be able to check individual hedgefunds and their short positions? Is there a shorting equivalent of Dataroma? S3 Partners provide short data but I have no idea how credible it is. This source was recommended to me over on the GME thread. You can also find it in the statistics section of yahoo finance, it also gives you the last time they pulled the information. Right now it is showing Jan 15th. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SRG/key-statistics?p=SRG Calendar for short interest reporting: https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest Thank you! Out of curiosity, what tools do you use to track this stock? I am aware morningstar and valueline offer subscription, but is there any value to paying for data that may potentially be available for free? I get access to both Morningstar and Value Line through Fairfax County Public Library non-resident membership ($30 per year). But I don't use any tools to track the stock... my YouTube subscribers poke me when things come up. Huge fan of your channel. Turns out I have access to Value Line through Toronto Public Library's online platform. Thanks for the tip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kaioji Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It seems like Seritage has updated their property list and while they were at it, made it official that they have a new mixed-use project at Hicksville: https://seritage.com/retail/property/195-n-broadway/3312586/landing I expect this project to create annual rent of ~29M. More details: Sep 2020 - https://oysterbaytown.com/wp-content/uploads/2020-09-17_Heritage-Village-Presentation_LR.pdf Jan 2021 - https://sabre.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Hicksville-Heritage-Village-Flyer9.pdf My write up on the whole project and how I think SRG will play it: https://investingjourney.mn.co/posts/seritages-newest-project-heritage-valley-annual-rent-up-to-29m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I don't think your project cost figure can be correct, because I think you are using revenue (rather than NOI) to calculate the yield on cost and getting to a reasonable development yield. high quality apartments have about a 70% NOI margin, high quality office = 60%, retail = 60% (using 2019 FRT's margin as a proxy for non-covid, high quality retail in high income areas), so if a project has $29mm revenue, then you're talking $20mm of NOI, which would be a 5.3% yield on cost and probably break even (or lose money) if they meet your projections and would not be a good risk reward for development (particularly when taking into account SRG's high cost of capital). So your projected NOI is too low, or your project cost is too high, or this project sucks (I don't know the answer). This looks like a great project for a better capitalized entity (like Urban Edge, it'd fit in their portfolio really well) to buy from SRG I commend you for digging deep here and please keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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