louisdog Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 locke and key should be bigger too... Hulu passed on the pilot for Locke and Key. They are out shopping it for a new home. Hopefully it finds one... https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/locke-key-passed-at-hulu-as-wme-shops-carlton-cuse-drama-1090396 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted April 17, 2018 Author Share Posted April 17, 2018 Hulu just changed CEOs. not too worried about it. My guess is NFLX takes that one down too. will find a home definitively. andy muschetti/IT is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted June 5, 2018 Author Share Posted June 5, 2018 Who would sell this here? Locke and Key pickup by NFLX and V - Wars NFLX. Company has said casually that Locke and Key could be more revenue than the entire company potentially... V Wars is also a big production. Seems like the path to alot more shows is there and they are ALL much bigger budget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 Why is this going down? The company just announced that former SVP from TWX is new CFO. Also buried in the disclosures is the fact that they have three shows on NFLX upcoming and their 4th show was renewed for a fourth season. If people question the upcoming revenue, one should look at the 43 mm of inventory that has been builidng on the balance sheet... That will all convert to cash + some gross margin given that this company only funds production for straight to series commitments...so its fungible. Very odd that this company has been sold down relentlessly given the upgrades in mgmt and show developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tripleoptician Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 Wyden has been going fairly heavily into PAR (over 10% ownership now) and maybe is selling this for more upside? What % stake did he have in IDW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted September 19, 2018 Author Share Posted September 19, 2018 Doubt it. Stock is very thin and not trading huge volume either. More likely would sell a stake like that in a block sale or thru outright sale of company. Not big weight relative to AUM at this point either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iambagman Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 The company did a rights offering about a year ago at $30 per share - I believe the restriction was holding 1 year - so maybe some folks who bought at $30 are selling at $40. Small move down on limited volume. Core point that the company's entertainment pipeline is stronger than ever and show commitments eventually go to cash. With management changes, the company has been pretty quiet - no investor conferences, no presentations, no conference calls etc - this can exaggerate moves - if you said a year ago Netflix would pick up 3 shows and the company was going to upgrade the CFO - I think most shareholders would be pretty happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted September 28, 2018 Author Share Posted September 28, 2018 Looks like a lag between companies filings on otcmarkets.com and the press articles.. see below... https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/kate-bosworth-lost-like-drama-3-netflix-sci-fi-series-pickups-1147707 this company has a three show deal with NFLX and Wynonna Earp and former head of Paramount TV and stock is limit down.. how does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted September 28, 2018 Author Share Posted September 28, 2018 this article references the other two -- v wars and locke and key https://www.moviefone.com/2018/09/28/netflix-announces-three-new-sci-fi-series-including-kate-bosworths-the-i-land/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted October 15, 2018 Author Share Posted October 15, 2018 This is a ridic price given the proximity of the three blockbuster shows.. October faction looks like a great show with a great cast. http://www.denofgeek.com/uk/tv/60784/october-faction-netflix-news Also, article cites the other IDW properties in their big SciFi slate --> Locke and Key and V-Wars.... 4 tv shows and a big library behind it, does this make sense... there are very few public assets like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepValuePlay Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 I've been trying to take a look at this but find it difficult to gauge potential revenues and profitability going forward or even in 2019. Anyone wants to help me in how to think about it? It seems that looking at historical numbers is not very helpful. I have a feeling this is a good entry point with the new upcoming shows and the share price at $31 but I can't anchor a valuation. What do you foresee 2019 revenues to be and how you come up with these figures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 This is a tough one. Revenues per show are very difficult to forecast b/c all shows are different production values. What we would tell you is that the three show deal with NFLX looks like all relatively big budget... I think the total number of episodes of INCREMENTAL TV (this is ex Wynonna) is 30 1 hr episodes.. All on NFLX. We estimate that the production cost of the shows is roughly 120-150mm (ex Wynonna).. at a 15 pct margin that would be 18-22.5 mm of EBITDA. The Core biz used to do 10mm of EBITDA on its own ex entertainment. I think with the new CEO and CFO (ex Timewarner SVP) Ezra Rosensaft there will be some good restructuring/optimizing plans to improve EBITDA in the publishing/brochures back up to 8-10 mm of EBITDA over time. So ~30 mm of EBITDA runrate some point in 2019 doesnt sound crazy. Bigger opty is that this wholly discounts any other TV shows getting made / picked up for direct to series commitments. Kerry Mcclucage (new CEO and existing board member) ran Paramount TV and did some of the biggest shows on TV ever.. We are told that he is very close with JJ Abrams and mentored many of Hollywood's elite. If this company could deliver 35 - 40mm of EBITDA to an acquirer today that it is very very very cheap. We think thats the PF math for a deal and with all the NFLX shows ascribing no value to any incremental new shows. We think the existing pipeline is very promising and expect new shows coming as well. These independent studios/content libraries are getting valued at enormous valuations and that is without even any track record or things on the air. Go look at Valiant Publishing/Entertainment. No publishing revenues and media and large 9 figure valuations if not 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Also we are hearing from other entertainment guys that NFLX pays 20 -30 pct margins on budget for super desirable assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 Has IDWM disclosed who will own the shows it's making for Netflix? In other words, after the initial exclusive run on Netflix, will these shows return to IDWM's library to be re-licensed or are the rights to the show owned by Netflix forever? Also, does a 2019 or 2020 run-rate EBITDA valuation make sense given that these 3 shows likely will run for a few years, rather than for decades? Put another way, you can't capitalize the earnings from those 3 shows in perpetuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 to the 1st question: I dont think NFLX owns them forever. Im sure they have some renewal rights but IDW can take them elsewhere I believe at some point. You might not capitalize those shows forever but what about the value of the content portfolio and shows in pipeline and show that can be made from owned IP. this is how it works I think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 Also, there are liscencing fees that IDW can earn if one of the studios cancels the shows. ie. they can reliscence internationallly or to someone else and get future revenues.... even with only a few seasons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 to the 1st question: I dont think NFLX owns them forever. Im sure they have some renewal rights but IDW can take them elsewhere I believe at some point. That's my suspicion also, but has IDWM said that? You might not capitalize those shows forever but what about the value of the content portfolio and shows in pipeline and show that can be made from owned IP. this is how it works I think.... I agree. My point is that you can't do a valuation that's a multiple of 2020 expected EBITDA and also say you're assigning no value to incremental shows. But using a multiple of EBITDA, you're implicitly saying there's a lot more to come than just these three shows and you are putting value on the future pipeline now. I'm not suggesting it's wrong to put value on that pipeline, I'm only suggesting it's double-counting to suggest an EBITDA multiple valuation and say that such an approach puts no value on the future pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted October 18, 2018 Author Share Posted October 18, 2018 OK. Thats totally fair... but in fairness, dreamworks sold for 30x EBITDA and dont think they had huge library behind them. So 5x is not a huge multiple for the existing shows and the prospects of new ones. I agree with the double counting argument but you have to think about things in absolute terms and precedent transactions also. The 150 or whatever owned pieces of IP are also valuable. What about the franchise value and ability to generate more owned IP also... Perhaps thats captured in mutliple but mulitple should be higher? no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 OK. Thats totally fair... but in fairness, dreamworks sold for 30x EBITDA and dont think they had huge library behind them. So 5x is not a huge multiple for the existing shows and the prospects of new ones. I agree with the double counting argument but you have to think about things in absolute terms and precedent transactions also. The 150 or whatever owned pieces of IP are also valuable. What about the franchise value and ability to generate more owned IP also... Perhaps thats captured in mutliple but mulitple should be higher? no? I agree. That's why I've been long for several years. But at the end of the day, I've had to keep the position size small because I can't really put any good estimate on the value of the IP. I know it has some value, and past transactions suggest it could have a very high value. But it's hard (for me at least) to even put a sensible range on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted March 5, 2019 Share Posted March 5, 2019 Adam Wyden releases public letter to management urging a sale: https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17433320-adw-capital-partners-l-p-seeks-sale-idw-media-holdings-inc-maximize-value-intellectual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted March 19, 2019 Author Share Posted March 19, 2019 http://idwmediaholdings.com/investor-relations/presentations/ Check out new deck. First update in YEARS. Looks like they are committed to streamlining costs and only doing margin/licensed deals not traditional deficit financed TV. Perhaps most interesting is on slide 14. Said expecting to retain internationally recognized investment bank to explore strategic options... think Howard as CEO signals he might be going for his next StraightPath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Has anyone gone through and actually tried to figure out what IP they own or co-own? I think it's important to establish that they have (or don't have) potentially monetizable IP outside of the properties have been developed and/or are in development. I think the below link lists all of their active series? https://www.idwpublishing.com/comic-series/ Nearly everything on the above list is: (1) already in development and/or has already been released ("Wynonna Earp", "V-Wars", "Dirk Gently", "30 Days of Night", etc) (2) owned by another company ("Dungeons and Dragons", "Gears of War", etc) (3) new ("Sword of Ages", "Antar", "Black Crown" imprint, "Ominous Press" imprint, "The Highest House", "The Spider King"). My working assumption is that new titles don't have the widespread name recognition that helps the transition to other mediums. So this leaves completed series as a source of potential development ideas. But if they have lots of popular owned IP in their back catalog, why aren't new issues of these IPs being produced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deepdive Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 Wow, rights offering https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/dns/news/document/35562/content $18 per share in the Initial Round (as defined below) and $15 in the Follow-On Round (as defined below), if any. The price per share was determined based on input from the Company’s financial advisors and certain current holders of significant positions in the Company’s capital stock. The Offering price in the Initial Round is 64% of the 30-day trailing volume weighted average price for the Class B Common Stock as quoted on the OTC Pink Sheets under the trading symbol “IDWM” for the period ended March 26, 2019. Howard Jonas has informed the Company that he intends to purchase at least 100% of his Allotment based on his and his Affiliates’ ownership of capital stock of the Company, and intends to utilize approximately $5.0 million of the amounts owing to Mr. Jonas under the Bridge Loan Facility described below to pay a portion of his investment amount. This will reduce the Company’s obligations under the Bridge Loan Facility, but the Company would not receive any cash proceeds from such offset. Still processing this. This is a stock that traded as high as $50 per share 2 years ago. Jonas is exercising his 100% of his rights. But Jonas is using $5 of his bridge loan to pay for the subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deepdive Posted April 10, 2019 Share Posted April 10, 2019 How is there no price reaction to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdadil9 Posted April 10, 2019 Author Share Posted April 10, 2019 How do you figure? Stock is down over 50 pct? And has three big shows coming up and JPM was willing to take the mandate to sell.. IM surprised not up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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