Gregmal Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Results were again good, if not great(especially relative to the price). I'm beginning to think that one of the major threats here, in Amazon fighting for this business, could abate if nothing else due to the fact that they(AMZN) would be wise to take the foot off the pedal in order to stem regulatory risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolverine890 Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Any type of economic contraction would add to AMZN's pressures to expand into new markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ander Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Any type of economic contraction would add to AMZN's pressures to expand into new markets. Could you clarify what you mean? I didn’t follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolverine890 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Any type of economic contraction would add to AMZN's pressures to expand into new markets. Could you clarify what you mean? I didn’t follow. Ya, sorry. IMO AMZN, as Greg said, would be wise to "take the foot off the pedal" of expanding into many areas of the economy. My thought was that an economic contraction would help CVS solidify their position and create a decent amount of pressure for AMZN if they choose to continue to compete in this market. Does that make more sense? I would think an economic downturn would be great for CVS. There business is more or less recession proof. In 08-09 rev grew 12.9% OP grew 6.5%. From 09-10 (the only year in the last decade with negative rev growth), rev fell by only 2.3% & OP fell by 4.3%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ander Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Thx. Makes sense. I agree re: AMZN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 LOL, now after clearing $75, the "activist" finds it attractive. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3521904-starboard-value-takes-stake-cvs-dow-jones More evidence the "smart money" just aint so.... I've long believed that the only real "alpha" most of these smart money guys get is through exclusively negotiated deals and private offerings. When it comes to investing in public stuff, the records probably arent much better than that of most retail investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 This stock hasn’t received much recognition, despite performing fairly well. As far as I can tell, they beat earnings substantially today and also raised guidance to $7.35-7.45 this year. https://s2.q4cdn.com/447711729/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/Q3-2020-Earnings-Presentation.pdf They have substantially reduced debt since the Aetna merger and with debt in the low 3.x range, they should be able to start buying back stock and/or increase the dividend fairly soon. I have added recently when the stock fell below $60. It looks way to cheap, given the fairly strong financial performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longnose Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 I recently took a small stake and am debating increasing it. Michael Burry took a pretty sizable position recently with both calls and shares. CVS seems likes its being valued as a retailer and not as a vertically integrated health care company. I think it warrants a deeper dive and I wonder if Burry taking a larger position will inspire smart money to take a look too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbuffett Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Looks like CVS is currently his 2nd largest position behind GOOG. Wonder if he sold any off on that run up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbuffett Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Spec are you still holding CVS? Everything was looking pretty good until recent AMZN news. It looks like You, Burry and myself entered into the position about the same price. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K2SO Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Spec are you still holding CVS? Everything was looking pretty good until recent AMZN news. It looks like You, Burry and myself entered into the position about the same price. Thoughts? You're not asking me but I'll chime in as I follow CVS and own a whack of it. The Amazon news is not a surprise, we've been expecting this since they bought PillPack, and maybe even before. CVS management was also expecting it. I'm sure it's what drove the Aetna merger and the integration of clinics and HealthHubs within the retail locations. It's no longer about just retail and dispensing drugs, it's about delivering services and reducing total health care costs. The business continues to generate cash flow and has the potential to re-rate as it transforms itself into a diversified health care services company. Will margins be squeezed by Amazon? Almost for sure. But CVS has been delivering prescriptions by mail for a while now and just might have more operational experience doing so than Amazon. It's something to watch, but the risk is more than priced into the stock, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbuffett Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Thanks K2SO :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 I sold most, but nobody should follow me (this time or anytime ;D ). I think that Aetna+ businesses will do great. I think the store front sales will suffer and pharmacy may suffer a bit. Things really depend on how well clinics and HealthHubs will fare. It is cheap. It also depends on whether one considers debt to be free or not (if not, you have a company that's barely growing and would have to spend ~10 years to pay off the debt). Combine this with CEO change and I'm not sure I want to hold this long term. As much as I'm Amazon fanboy, I think that doctor prescription integration with Amazon might not be trivial at first. Our doctors usually autoroute the prescription to CVS and I'm not sure it would be trivial to tell them to send them to Amazon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbuffett Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Thanks Jurgis :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 If you see me shaken out of a position, buy it & wait a year for the runup. (ex: CVS, Davita & Express Scripts) I have resolutely decided to die on Wells Fargo hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 I am still holding. While AMZN entry in a market is always a concern, there substantial friction to switch over from a convenient choice like Walgreen or CVS. I think the reason CVS did the Aetna deal is exactly the concern about the long term viability of the front end “convenience store” setup. They try to get more in an integrated model with Minute clinics replacing the front end. I think the pandemic actually helps because it drives people to vaccinations and testing. My workplace used to have an annual flu clinic, but not this year, because of social distancing, so we are urged to go to CVS instead (which I did). I think the COVId-19 rollout will be another opportunity for CVS to get deeper into this and acquire new customer for the Minute clinics. Aetna itself is doing great and actually has exceeded the projections from the merger so far. Financially, they are close to their target leverage stated before the Aetna merger, so they should be able to increase the dividend (which was frozen) and do buybacks. This should be good for the stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benbuffett Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Thanks Spec1 :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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