Patmo Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Damn, lots of shriveled balls in here... Let the boys work it out, complex big $ negotiations don't always resolve overnight. The outcome at the end of the wait is what matters. If we're going to fuss over a few weeks of wait time, might as well rebrand this the daytrading forum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 Damn, lots of shriveled balls in here... Let the boys work it out, complex big $ negotiations don't always resolve overnight. The outcome at the end of the wait is what matters. If we're going to fuss over a few weeks of wait time, might as well rebrand this the daytrading forum.... Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 I'm concerned that the longer this drags on, the higher probability of bankruptcy. Maybe I have it backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mateo999 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 As per his picture, Picasso's appear to be made of brass and low hanging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted May 19, 2016 Author Share Posted May 19, 2016 I think the more time that passes, you are simply looking at more value that is being extracted from the equity holders to the note holders. But there's a limitation to that since higher cost debt can be refinanced later, or maybe Cline tenders for more than $104 million and takes some of the 2021 2nd liens. I don't think these extensions increase the odds of bankruptcy by very much. Unless Cline gets hit by a bus before it's done. He does spend some time on his yacht... On $100 par, this senior lender agreement is $20 of cash tender, $23 of 1-year notes, and $57 of 5-year notes. Depending on where you think those 5-year notes will be discounted in the market (90% of par, 80% of par) that's a close to par deal. Plus the 15% PIK coupon, step up in 5-year coupon payments, the 7.5% equity warrants, and mandatory redemption of $300 million after a year. Those 5-year notes will be 2nd lien, well protected, rolling down the yield curve with half the non-senior debt outstanding and a 10% coupon. I thought from the start that the deal would be close to par, but there's also unpaid interest of about $4 per bond. Bridging $4 per bond shouldn't be hard considering they seem to be capitalizing it with an extra PIK coupon on the 5-year notes. Maybe a bit more of an equity warrant if it comes down to it. Several million of the notes traded today between $70-71 and when I dug through the institutional owners, most of them owned the bonds at $100 from 2014. I spoke to one of the larger holders and he indicated that they were trying to get *all* their energy bonds off the books because it was causing outflows and it was a bit tougher to market the mutual fund. But maybe guys like Blue Mountain want an extra couple points and they're swinging the vote. It certainly helps that Cline owns 12% of the notes. We'll see. Plus you have decent odds (maybe 30%?) that this turns out to be a monster cash flow machine in a few years. It's worth playing for the short-term event but if they're going through all this effort to save FELP (presumably for a good reason), there's some real optionality that the market is currently giving no value to. I mentioned to someone else that it reminds me of LVS from 2009 (casinos were in the toilet, Macau was about to turn the corner, small float with a billionaire owner who could save the equity, it made sense to save the equity, sentiment was rock bottom, but extremely valuable assets if they could get through the down cycle). A lot of guys I've discussed this idea with don't want to get involved because coal is dead in their eyes. Well if 99% of the market didn't think coal was dead, it wouldn't be trading for something like a normalized 1-2x DCF. But if this idea bombs, I don't want to hear any crying.... Just cut down your position size to where you're okay with the worst possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 ROIQ is one of the Wilber Ross SPAC, which was trying acquire a cell tower business in India (which is very good business). It has very good chance of closing and they did couple of amendments to the original deal to make sure that it will go through. But they were unable to obtain required % of consent from share holders. There was a tread in CoBF around Oct-Nov 2015. I am little bit hesitant to do special situation investing because of that experience. If not I would have put lot more money into FELP. Thanks for the Idea What's funny is that FELP shares Murray facilities to reduce that maintenance capex. Additionally, access to the Murray Energy manufacturing facilities will allow us to significantly reduce our repair cost and maintenance capital expenditures on critical equipment. We continue to expect capital synergies to be $10 million annually, which allows to keep average maintenance capital expenditures at approximately $70 million per year. With respect to SG&A cost, we've largely realized the significant cost reductions laid out when the Murray Energy transaction was announced and expect to see annual SG&A savings of $16 million versus 2014 spending levels. I wonder what would happen if Cline simply let it go into bankruptcy. I doubt they'd let Foresight continue to use their facilities. What exactly happened with ROIQW? It didn't seem that compelling to me (maybe 50/50 odds) but I'm not entirely aware of what made it fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 I think the more time that passes, you are simply looking at more value that is being extracted from the equity holders to the note holders. I'd agree with this. Odds are that the structure of the settlement is what's being discussed, not whether there'll be one. Re. optionality too, I agree. It's what makes the risk-reward (very) skewed on this one. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usdtor05 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 ROIQ is one of the Wilber Ross SPAC, which was trying acquire a cell tower business in India (which is very good business). It has very good chance of closing and they did couple of amendments to the original deal to make sure that it will go through. But they were unable to obtain required % of consent from share holders. There was a tread in CoBF around Oct-Nov 2015. I am little bit hesitant to do special situation investing because of that experience. If not I would have put lot more money into FELP. Thanks for the Idea WLRH is Wilbur's not ROIQ. This is a completely different situation. What's funny is that FELP shares Murray facilities to reduce that maintenance capex. Additionally, access to the Murray Energy manufacturing facilities will allow us to significantly reduce our repair cost and maintenance capital expenditures on critical equipment. We continue to expect capital synergies to be $10 million annually, which allows to keep average maintenance capital expenditures at approximately $70 million per year. With respect to SG&A cost, we've largely realized the significant cost reductions laid out when the Murray Energy transaction was announced and expect to see annual SG&A savings of $16 million versus 2014 spending levels. I wonder what would happen if Cline simply let it go into bankruptcy. I doubt they'd let Foresight continue to use their facilities. What exactly happened with ROIQW? It didn't seem that compelling to me (maybe 50/50 odds) but I'm not entirely aware of what made it fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Yes. You are right. It's Clinton group NOT Ross. It happened 5-6 months back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 The article actually has it wrong. The default back in December already set in motion an acceleration of the debt. I think there have been several "defaults" since then (missed interest payment, going concern, 1Q operating performance) but the damage was already done. That missed payment wasn't really the issue. Their senior lenders already cut access to their revolver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadwolf Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Not foresight but general info on coal - interesting to see the divergnce of opinion: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-20/poland-toughens-wind-farm-rules-in-push-to-save-coal-industry http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-day-coal-power-dropped-out-of-the-national-grid-for-the-first-time-in-more-than-100-years-a7040291.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadwolf Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Interesting that no news surfaced yet this morning. I would have expected a press release before the market opens for something with such a material impact on the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Its better to IR and find it out. I will try to call some time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted May 23, 2016 Author Share Posted May 23, 2016 If there was an extension, they very likely would have announced it by now. Which means we may finally have the conclusion to this crazy story fairly shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadwolf Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 8k out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 https://biz.yahoo.com/e/160523/felp8-k.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 https://biz.yahoo.com/e/160523/felp8-k.html It looks like they have the consent and now they have to restructure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted May 23, 2016 Author Share Posted May 23, 2016 Several things: 1) They had the consent on May 17th. I think they took a little longer to announce it to waterboard PulltheTrigger a little more. 2) Cline bought some more notes in the market. 3) Unpaid interest is going to be in the form of more 2nd lien notes in the tender. 4) No new capital extracted from the equity holders that wasn't part of the senior lender deal. That's a big plus. I need to read through it a bit more to see if I missed anything. Market will probably be nervous about the PIK's coming due, but they don't seem that difficult to pay down through a combination of a rights offering and directing cash for the next year into those notes. Plus there are a ton of subordinated units so dilution isn't going to be a big deal when nearly half of it will come in the form of more subordinated units. I'm curious to see how Murray bonds will trade tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 I think they took a little longer to announce it to waterboard PulltheTrigger a little more. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 http://bit.ly/22m22t7 Too funny. Which FELP holders are going to vote Trump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arcube Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 http://bit.ly/22m22t7 Too funny. Which FELP holders are going to vote Trump? Typical Trump. Shoot first, ask.... Thanks Picasso! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Let's make coal great again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 FELP has the best coal, it's fantastic coal. You can ask anybody, their coking coal is just fabulous, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hswoon Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I'm sure a certain SXC holder on cobf will gladly agree with you on that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 In the 8k it mentions $106 in tender offer, $114-$120 in senior convertible, $294-300 in senior secured and 80 million owned by FELP people... So because all this sums up to 600 million does that mean there are no holdouts at the 2021 unsecured level? Also, would debt holders higher up the capital structure have any motives to sideline this deal? Just wondering with language at the bottom that states: Accordingly, there are other creditors and stakeholders of the Partnership and its affiliates who are not party to any support agreement in respect of the Restructuring and such stakeholders have not approved nor agreed (either implicitly or explicitly) to the terms of the Support Agreement, the Transaction Term Sheet or the Restructuring transactions contemplated thereby, nor are they bound to take (or refrain from taking) any actions as a result of the effectiveness of the Support Agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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