Patmo Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 valcont, here is waht Aqul posted back in Nov 2016: Is there any chance of a re-fi for the Exchangeable PIK? The new 2021 notes don't allow the refinancing debt to pay cash, or have more favorable maturity terms (see below), so it's going to be difficult to re-fi, to say the least. Are you all assuming full dilution for the PIK in your valuations? From the Indenture (Exhibit 4.1 from the 9-6-16 8-K): With respect to (i) any Debt Incurred pursuant to this Section 4.06 to refinance the Exchangeable PIK Notes and all subsequent refinancings thereof (collectively, the “Exchangeable PIK Notes Refinancing Debt”) and (ii) any Debt Incurred pursuant to this Section 4.06 after the Issue Date more than a majority of which is loaned or otherwise provided by an Affiliate (other than the Issuers and any Restricted Subsidiary) (which, for the avoidance of doubt, does not apply to any Debt outstanding on the Issue Date, including the Exchangeable PIK Notes, or any Debt outstanding (whether Incurred before, on or after the Issue Date) that is acquired by an Affiliate after the initial Incurrence thereof), in each case of clauses (i) and (ii) other than Excluded Debt, such Debt must: (a) be unsecured or constitute Junior Lien Obligations, (b) have a maturity date no earlier than 91 days later than the earlier of (i) the Notes Maturity Date and (ii) the date on which the Notes are no longer outstanding, © have no issuer, obligor or guarantor thereof other than the Issuers and the Guarantors, (d) not provide for any cash payments while the Notes are outstanding and (e) not contain any negative covenants or events of default that are more restrictive than the negative covenants and Events of Default (as applicable) in this Indenture unless this Indenture is amended to contain such more restrictive negative covenants or events of default (as applicable). I see. All this means is that they can't make interest payments in cash i.e. the debt has to be PIK if they refinance the debt. Murray has lots of levers to play with today compared to last year this time. He may refinance all the debt in one big swoop or just take it private. Or interest payable in lump sum at maturity date. There's plenty of room to handle this here, these guys managed to pull a rabbit out of their hat on the default, this is child's play in comparison. The 2021 are structured to not be cut in line for their meal, not prohibit the 2017's from ever being taken care of. I don't think it'll even require much creativity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The latest form 4 isn't exactly clear, but it looks like the CEO got about $1 M in stock issued to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 What'd everyone think of ARLP's release and call? Their costs per ton were down big time from 2015 4Q. Still nowhere near FELP, but down from 33.19 to 27.72 per ton. Price per ton in ILB was down from 4Q last year 49.96 to 45.56. On the call mgmt seemed confident that 2016 was the floor for gas and coal. Not much info on exports, really interested to see how FELP is doing on that front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 is this recent pullback enough to get anyone interested in adding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc75 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 is this recent pullback enough to get anyone interested in adding? I bought some in the 6.30s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 What'd everyone think of ARLP's release and call? Their costs per ton were down big time from 2015 4Q. Still nowhere near FELP, but down from 33.19 to 27.72 per ton. Price per ton in ILB was down from 4Q last year 49.96 to 45.56. On the call mgmt seemed confident that 2016 was the floor for gas and coal. Not much info on exports, really interested to see how FELP is doing on that front... Here is my take on it that is relevant to FELP. 1. Lenders are still leery about the fundamentals but this may improve with DT victory. 2. Prices are down 12-13% but coal production declined 18% in 2016. 3. They are front loading the export volume which makes sense since API2 is sitting at $85 4.Inventories seems higher since the Utilities are buying on a monthly and quarter basis rather than stockpiling for longer term but supply demand is matched. Overall it was not a bad report. The sales prices were down since the higher prices contract were renegotiated with lower ones. FELP's sale price last qtr was $37 and they had booked ~4m tons already. ILB is at $35 now. I think FELP will continue to do well this year. At this time,it is a part commodity price and part financial engineering story. Most likely the non reserve will be cashed out and Cline will receive part cash part equity as part of refinancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Anybody knows when will be FELP's earnings release? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Last year was 3/15. Per IR (Jason Margherio) sent to me yesterday: We have not set a date yet. Based on our filing status we have up to 90 days following the end of the year to file our annual 10-K. It is likely that we’ll do our earnings announcement concurrently with that filing, but we haven’t decided yet when that will occur. Thanks, Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Could someone please walk me through an exported ton from FELP. I've looked at SXCP presentation on Convent Marine Terminal, but I'm still a little fuzzy on few things: Say they lock in $70 per metric ton for coal to Europe According to SXCP you have then adjust: Sulfur Content (-3) BTU Premium (+5) Metric Conversion (-9) So now u have $63 coal and u gotta get it to CMT SXCP says $18 dollars to get the coal from the ILB and loaded into a ship. That seems really high to me. Doe anyone know if that's suppose to be illustrative of FELP or Murray's inland cost? I thought there was minimal rail travel and most of this was on river barges Ocean freight seems reasonable at $9 Lastly, what's the the most FELP could switch to the export market if prices remain high. Could FELP do something like 7.5mm tons in 2017 and 10mm tons in 2018 or do they have domestic customers that they have to cater to? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Coal companies settle suit alleging they excluded women from working in mines http://legalnewsline.com/stories/511079185-coal-companies-settle-suit-alleging-they-excluded-women-from-working-in-mines The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) has resolved two lawsuits against coal mining companies that allegedly conducted hiring practices that excluded women from working in mines. To settle the allegations, the group of mining companies agreed to pay a collective $4.25 million to women applicants who were denied jobs because of the alleged sex discrimination. The companies involved in the lawsuits were Mach Mining and various affiliates – Foresight Energy Services LLC, Foresight Energy LLC, Foresight Energy LP, Foresight Energy Labor LLC, Hillsboro Energy LLC, Macoupin Energy LLC, MaRyan Mining LLC, M-Class Mining LLC, Patton Mining LLC, Sugar Camp Energy LLC, Viking Mine LLC, and Williamson Energy LLC. These are all part of St. Louis-based Foresight Energy. C'mon Murray. Hire some women. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I'm thinking they are avoiding to hire women for the same reason the navy does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Please hold the tar and feathers, but.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-05/one-thing-california-texas-have-in-common-is-negative-power This is such an interesting trend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Please hold the tar and feathers, but.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-05/one-thing-california-texas-have-in-common-is-negative-power This is such an interesting trend..... Why would we tar and feather you? This isn't Yahoo or SeekingAlpha. I fully expect renewables to take over the lions share of electricity generation within 15-20 years. The only thing preventing this today is cheap enough storage. Battery prices are too high today in most places, but they are coming down at 10-15% a year, a trend which could accelerate as more money is poured into R&D. States need to move to a Time-of-Use electricity pricing model. This will incentivize use when the power is available. As we shift to electric cars, this will become easier, as these vehicles will use a lot of juice, and have the potential to be plugged in 60-95% of the time, charging mainly when rates are lowest. All of this is negative for coal long term, but in the medium term I actually think we see higher demand as EV use increases faster than new renewable capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Priliminary Results released by Foresight today. http://investor.foresight.com/file/Index?KeyFile=38013878 Revenue of $251M on 5.2MT sold. Adjusted EBITDA of $98M for Q4 is solid and they also announced they retained Goldman Sachs to look into refinance some or all of existing debt. I'm very curious how the market will respond to this tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Priliminary Results released by Foresight today. http://investor.foresight.com/file/Index?KeyFile=38013878 Revenue of $251M on 5.2MT sold. Adjusted EBITDA of $98M for Q4 is solid and they also announced they retained Goldman Sachs to look into refinance some or all of existing debt. I'm very curious how the market will respond to this tomorrow. That's an average of ~$50/ton. I am curious what is the break down between domestic and export. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brendanb22 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Hopefully this PIK can be refi'd ASAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1211729/000092189517000424/xslF345X03/form406588014_02162017.xml Accipiter sold another 200,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1211729/000092189517000424/xslF345X03/form406588014_02162017.xml Accipiter sold another 200,000. Does he know something that we don't know? He's buddy with Cline so I don't know what's cooking over there. But considering that his timing on the stock may be the worst ever , this may be a bullish sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Probably redemptions. Why sell right before Trump high fives Murray before signing the repeal of the stream protection Rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Accipiter started selling a while ago I believe. Probably wants to get off mr. Bone's wild ride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 They still have 7.6 M shares. They won't get out of their position quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 What's up with the anemic volume and price action since the prelim results and potential refi? Bob Murray is in the media again and hanging out with Trump in the WH. Murray's bonds are now $83 and trading decent volume... If you take away that 200k Accipiter sale on the prelim results day, no one is really trading FELP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 What's up with the anemic volume and price action since the prelim results and potential refi? Bob Murray is in the media again and hanging out with Trump in the WH. Murray's bonds are now $83 and trading decent volume... If you take away that 200k Accipiter sale on the prelim results day, no one is really trading FELP. Everyone is waiting for the 10K and hopefully a CC. I did speak with Jason from the IR about the earnings date and he told me it hadn't been finalized yet. Surprisingly they released the preliminary the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 Reddit not in love with coal today, ayaye... Can't say I am too excited either, I doubt the incremental profits short term are going to be worth all the other costs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Reddit not in love with coal today, ayaye... Can't say I am too excited either, I doubt the incremental profits short term are going to be worth all the other costs... Good they can sell more of the imaginary coal stock that they own so i can become a imaginary billionaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now