valcont Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 I thought Moore's tone was fair. I was pleased with his open and candid answers. It's understandable with the ongoing insurance stuff that he needs to be tight lipped about Hillsboro and his MLP structure answer made sense. it was an interesting cast of characters on the call. Seemed like a few hedgies and our very own Picasso even got a question in. Does Ares own some FELP or Murray debt? I can't see any other reason why they'd be on the call... I hope Moore was mistaken when he said current API 2 pricing translates to mine netbacks of $28-33. I hope he meant net margins because if that is mine netbacks then sulfur discounts and transit costs have gone up considerably, and net margins are terrible on exports. Nice that costs came down. All and all neither good or bad I guess Highly doubtful that FELP's mine netback is $28-33 at $80 API2. I remember they were breaking even at $55 API2 last year. Unless he accounted for the sulfur discount that is $14 currently. Consol coal's netback to mine is in the low to mid 40s and $66 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Murray looking ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Interesting comments from Murray about bankruptcy: http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/business/trump-rebuffs-coal-industry-ceo-claims-promise-broken-article-1.3431872?cid=bitly Murray's company is seeking a two-year moratorium on closures of coal-fired power plants, which would be an unprecedented federal intervention in the nation's energy markets. The company said invoking the provision under the Power Act was "the only viable mechanism" to protect the reliability of the nation's power supply. Murray told the White House that his key customer, Ohio-based electricity company FirstEnergy Solutions, was at immediate risk of bankruptcy. Without FirstEnergy's plants burning his coal, Murray said his own company would be forced into "immediate bankruptcy," triggering the layoffs of more than 6,500 miners. FirstEnergy acknowledged to the AP that bankruptcy of its power-generation business was a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Interesting comments from Murray about bankruptcy: http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/business/trump-rebuffs-coal-industry-ceo-claims-promise-broken-article-1.3431872?cid=bitly Murray's company is seeking a two-year moratorium on closures of coal-fired power plants, which would be an unprecedented federal intervention in the nation's energy markets. The company said invoking the provision under the Power Act was "the only viable mechanism" to protect the reliability of the nation's power supply. Murray told the White House that his key customer, Ohio-based electricity company FirstEnergy Solutions, was at immediate risk of bankruptcy. Without FirstEnergy's plants burning his coal, Murray said his own company would be forced into "immediate bankruptcy," triggering the layoffs of more than 6,500 miners. FirstEnergy acknowledged to the AP that bankruptcy of its power-generation business was a possibility. was Murray just bluffing or they really face "immediate bankruptcy" risk? What is the implication for FELP if Murray goes bankrupt? I remember during the recent conference call, somebody asked a similar question, and the answer says that the liabilities are isolated and there is no cross-default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Interesting comments from Murray about bankruptcy: http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/business/trump-rebuffs-coal-industry-ceo-claims-promise-broken-article-1.3431872?cid=bitly Murray's company is seeking a two-year moratorium on closures of coal-fired power plants, which would be an unprecedented federal intervention in the nation's energy markets. The company said invoking the provision under the Power Act was "the only viable mechanism" to protect the reliability of the nation's power supply. Murray told the White House that his key customer, Ohio-based electricity company FirstEnergy Solutions, was at immediate risk of bankruptcy. Without FirstEnergy's plants burning his coal, Murray said his own company would be forced into "immediate bankruptcy," triggering the layoffs of more than 6,500 miners. FirstEnergy acknowledged to the AP that bankruptcy of its power-generation business was a possibility. was Murray just bluffing or they really face "immediate bankruptcy" risk? What is the implication for FELP if Murray goes bankrupt? I remember during the recent conference call, somebody asked a similar question, and the answer says that the liabilities are isolated and there is no cross-default. You are correct. Murray said that the corporate structure/accounting of FELP is separated from the Murray Energy. Looks like FELP doesn't provide coal to First Energy as per this link on page 2 (from 2012). : http://www.asyousow.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/2012-firstenergy-memo.pdf "FirstEnergy projects it will need 38.5 million tons of coal to meet 2012 requirements.16 In 2011, the company sourced approximately 76% of its coal from Central Appalachia (CAPP), 19% from the Powder River Basin (PRB), and 5 % from the Illinois Basin (ILB) in 2011.17 The company indicates that increases in the cost of fuels for its generation facilities can affect the company’s profit margins.18 " If Murray Energy declares bankruptcy, then a cleaner (no pun) ME post restructuring can buy out the FELP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 MAGA http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-powergrid-study-idUSKCN1B41NJ?il=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 MAGA http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-powergrid-study-idUSKCN1B41NJ?il=0 We need an event like Katrina in 2005 to disrupt the energy market to wake up those global warming blamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Murray bonds crushed today: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-23/coal-miner-murray-s-bonds-plunge-after-trump-administration-snub FELPs bonds were $92 today, but not sure if anything traded. Also, saw that Murray exercised some of his warrants and sold about 9 million dollars of common units the same day (8-15). The guy must really need money, he didn't even wait for the ex-dividend date! I guess it's not all talk and investors are really concerned. I wonder how much of this has to do with Murray's recent earnings call (yesterday I think) and how much is to do with the Trump snub. I wonder what FELPs stock price would be today if they were forced to delever and never did the debt refi with the Murray injection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted August 25, 2017 Author Share Posted August 25, 2017 Murray bonds crushed today: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-23/coal-miner-murray-s-bonds-plunge-after-trump-administration-snub FELPs bonds were $92 today, but not sure if anything traded. Also, saw that Murray exercised some of his warrants and sold about 9 million dollars of common units the same day (8-15). The guy must really need money, he didn't even wait for the ex-dividend date! I guess it's not all talk and investors are really concerned. I wonder how much of this has to do with Murray's recent earnings call (yesterday I think) and how much is to do with the Trump snub. I wonder what FELPs stock price would be today if they were forced to delever and never did the debt refi with the Murray injection There is a cashless exercise option for the warrants so he didn't sell them, he simply exercised "cashless" and retained the rest. If you check the last 10-Q there were around 1.4 million warrants exercised and something like 80% were done in a cashless manner. Regarding the Murray comments, I think the vast majority of the decline has to do with the headlines versus real fundamental risk to Murray Energy. FES bonds have been at 50% of par for a while and the market has been watching what was going to happen to that particular unit of FE. I think you'll see some interesting opportunities open up here outside of FELP because of the dramatic nature of those Murray comments. I think we're talking about 3Mt at risk but that's over several years (FES bankrupting next month won't mean the plants stop running immediately. Bigger issues are at the nuclear plants to be honest.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Thanks for the clarification on the warrants. Really surprised no excitement after the return of Picasso to the thread? Man, times are tough! Looks like the API 2 forward curve is almost as high as it was in Dec 2016 in the front months and less backwardation as you move out in term. Hopefully they'll be placing a lot of tons at these prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Really surprised no excitement after the return of Picasso to the thread? Man, times are tough! Sssh you're gonna spook him. :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Thanks for the clarification on the warrants. Really surprised no excitement after the return of Picasso to the thread? Man, times are tough! Looks like the API 2 forward curve is almost as high as it was in Dec 2016 in the front months and less backwardation as you move out in term. Hopefully they'll be placing a lot of tons at these prices. I was thrilled to see Picasso posting again too. If I remember correctly, on the last CC they said that they expect both this year and next year to be ~5M tons of export, how much more are you expecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patmo Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 I think there's a lot of fatigue on FELP stock for the board. At least as much is true for me... It has been discussed to death, the high octane action is over & the big picture post-refi value idea remains, and all that's left to talk about is breadcrumbs type of details. It's a good bet to be sure, but not so much a good conversation... IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 That's a great point Patmo. Its hard not to be excitable when you've had an investment go up 4x and then down 50%, but the fireworks are over. How is everyone thinking about coal plant decommissions? It seems like every day you read about how prolific the Utica and Marcellus gas plays are and then you have tons of midstream gas investment going into FELP territory like the Ohio River Valley.. Just seems like if gas stays at these levels and infrastructure keeps up that gas plants will be built and coal may be uneconomical a lot sooner than the EIA is predicting. Anyone have any view on coal plant retirements that's keeping them comfortable holding this for a couple of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 How is everyone thinking about coal plant decommissions? It seems like every day you read about how prolific the Utica and Marcellus gas plays are and then you have tons of midstream gas investment going into FELP territory like the Ohio River Valley.. Just seems like if gas stays at these levels and infrastructure keeps up that gas plants will be built and coal may be uneconomical a lot sooner than the EIA is predicting. Anyone have any view on coal plant retirements that's keeping them comfortable holding this for a couple of year? Coal plant retirements will likely continue, but it appears to be a slow decline of coal production out to 2040. See page 84 in the EIA pdf: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf With no CPP, coal production and consumption is projected to stay relatively flat in the U.S. With CPP, it will continue to drop. The interior region production is projected to gain six points in share out to 2040, so that should be good for Foresight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Some joker posted FELP to VIC a few days ago, if you have access or wait 40 or so days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Now thats what I call a fair rule ;) I love the 90 day supply requirement. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4934422/Perry-puts-thumb-scale-save-U-S-coal-nuclear-Kemp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyow Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 What is going on with supply demand dynamics? Natural gas has stayed pretty stable, which doesn't really help coal prices, but I would have assumed coal prices would have got some bump because of expected closings from what I thought was a significant number of high cost mines after the crash - prices have remained the same as far as I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 What is going on with supply demand dynamics? Natural gas has stayed pretty stable, which doesn't really help coal prices, but I would have assumed coal prices would have got some bump because of expected closings from what I thought was a significant number of high cost mines after the crash - prices have remained the same as far as I can see. The export market is looking good. API 2 is at $91 and if the French decommission any of the nuclear plants for maintenance, this can go higher. Domestic hasn't changed. The summers were pretty mild so the utilities are still buying on spot and not raising inventories betting that the NG price will hover around $3. In the last Q call, Murray said that he thinks the market is still oversupplied. Interestingly enough he also said he can easily place 4-5m tonnes from the Deer Run mine if it becomes operational. As for the high cost mines, Some like Peabody went through restructuring and are back in the market. ILB is at $32 (although most contracts are priced at $38+). Most of the ILB mines will start hurting at <$35 pricing especially the ones that don't have export capability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyow Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 OK thanks. Weather aside nat gas is hurting coal.....all the players in the marcellus/utica, except one, issued shares to drill more gas right after nat gas rebounded, they couldn't even wait a few extra months to really let supply drain down. And this was right after a gigantic crash that destroyed the industry - some of these companies were at risk of defaulting then 2 months later they were issuing shares like nothing happenned....the nat gas industry is run by a bunch of idiots.....I still don't understand who funded these guys...all the stocks except for that one have pretty much tanked since then....and rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Hopefully Deer Run will start soon. Eight members of the Hillsboro Planning Commission met at 12:30 Thursday, Sept. 21, in city hall to both make and listen to reports from their various committees. Mayor Brian Sullivan combined hopefulness (he said indications are the Deer Run Mine will again produce coal, though nothing is certain, including a time line) and remorse (again based on indications–not certainty–he feels the Dynegy power plant west of Coffeen will shutter). One of those indications is the lack of spending on maintenance. He commented, "In an ideal world for the local economy, the mine would reopen and the power plant would stay open," but he feels that's not realistic, so planners need to be aware of the possibilities. http://www.thejournal-news.net/news/mayor-shares-optimism-pessimism-on-economy/article_0d88cd64-a199-11e7-a058-872425db6ac5.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Well it looks like API 2 at $90 is less profitable than API 2 at 85. If you check out the attachment from SXCP's earnings call, it looks like shipping rates are up, sulfur penalties are up and btu premiums are down. Last quarter SXCP estimated $43 netbacks on $85 API 2 pricing, now they estimate $38 netbacks on $90 API 2 pricing, damn. Platts coal trader reported that FELP produced 5.3 million tons in Q3, if they were able to sell most of that as well as their significant inventory from Q2, they should be in good shape for this quarter. The last few days there has been a lot of activity in FELP Dec options. Selling $5 puts and buying $5 calls...10 cents seems cheap for the Dec calls, I hope someone makes 10x on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 More on API 2 at $90 not really being a home run for netbacks. ARLP CEO Joe Craft saying export realized prices aren't much different than domestic at these levels: "On your first question, the export price, I mean, you read a lot and you've heard a lot about the sulfur discount, the belief that the sulfur discount really pretty much ties to what we can get into the domestic market. So our pricing tends to be right on top of where the domestic market is and that’s what it dictates in my view what the sulfur discount is, and that is different for our Gibson Mine which is a lower sulfur mine and so it’s hard to make an argument for sulfur discount if you don’t have high sulfur." Couldn't find any info on the exact sulfur content at ARLP's Gibson mine, but if you assume ARLP's coal is slightly better than FELPs and FELPs logistics are slightly better than ARLP's, then it's probably a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 More on API 2 at $90 not really being a home run for netbacks. ARLP CEO Joe Craft saying export realized prices aren't much different than domestic at these levels: "On your first question, the export price, I mean, you read a lot and you've heard a lot about the sulfur discount, the belief that the sulfur discount really pretty much ties to what we can get into the domestic market. So our pricing tends to be right on top of where the domestic market is and that’s what it dictates in my view what the sulfur discount is, and that is different for our Gibson Mine which is a lower sulfur mine and so it’s hard to make an argument for sulfur discount if you don’t have high sulfur." Couldn't find any info on the exact sulfur content at ARLP's Gibson mine, but if you assume ARLP's coal is slightly better than FELPs and FELPs logistics are slightly better than ARLP's, then it's probably a wash. thanks for the infor. We really need Deer Run mine to come back to live again to make this a home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Interesting development with MEC. http://www.coalage.com/news/latest/5772-mec-bowie-partner-to-create-canyon-consolidated-resources.html#.Wfny2GhSyUl Murray Energy Corp. (MEC), Bowie Resource Partners, Javelin Global Commodities, and Grupo CLISA have agreed to form a strategic partnership called Canyon Consolidated Resources (CCR), which will produce approximately 13 million tons per year (tpy) and own 214.8 million tons of coal reserves. MEC will hold a 30.5% stake in CCR. Chairman of Bowie John Siegel will also control 30.5%, and 28.5 % will be held by second lien lenders via warrants. Javelin and CLISA will control 7.25% and 2.25%, respectively CCR will purchase and market coal produced from Lila Canyon. Through a services agreement, MEC will provide certain operational, procurement and administrative services for CCR. The CCR investors expect to finance a portion of the partnership, and pay related fees and expenses, with the proceeds of debt financing. A portion of these proceeds will be used to recapitalize Bowie’s existing capital structure. In connection with the transaction, Bowie will refinance its existing senior secured credit facilities with new debt financing. Specifically, Bowie Resource Holdings LLC and Canyon Finance Corp. intend to offer up to $375 million of senior secured notes due 2022 through a private placement. Bowie intends to use the proceeds to refinance its existing senior secured credit facilities and finance the acquisition of Bowie by CCR. In addition, Javelin and CLISA will contribute cash to CCR in exchange for equity in CCR and certain exclusive export marketing rights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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