PullTheTrigger Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Doesn't look like MEC contributes anything and gets 30.5% of partnership. I'd guess MEC will charge for the "operational, procurement and administrative services" it will perform. Sounds positive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Looks like a descent quarter. But market does not like it, probably because of the increase in the cost to $23 per ton, and no substantial news on Hillsboro. Did I hear it correct that CEO said on the call that he is expecting to export 6~8MM tons in 2018? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Looks like a descent quarter. But market does not like it, probably because of the increase in the cost to $23 per ton, and no substantial news on Hillsboro. Did I hear it correct that CEO said on the call that he is expecting to export 6~8MM tons in 2018? Yep, you heard that right. Overall the call seemed okay. No Hillsboro news and Moore was somewhat gloomy, but nothing unexpected. Anyone have any high level insight into Murray's recent earnings? Murray bond's were clobbered and are down in the mid 40s. Foresight's bonds were in the low 80s today. Pretty grim for Murray, and somewhat grim for Foresight. In the event of a Murray Bankruptcy, is he expected to lead the company post bankruptcy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Looks like a descent quarter. But market does not like it, probably because of the increase in the cost to $23 per ton, and no substantial news on Hillsboro. Did I hear it correct that CEO said on the call that he is expecting to export 6~8MM tons in 2018? Yep, you heard that right. Overall the call seemed okay. No Hillsboro news and Moore was somewhat gloomy, but nothing unexpected. Anyone have any high level insight into Murray's recent earnings? Murray bond's were clobbered and are down in the mid 40s. Foresight's bonds were in the low 80s today. Pretty grim for Murray, and somewhat grim for Foresight. In the event of a Murray Bankruptcy, is he expected to lead the company post bankruptcy? Hope Picasso can share some insight on MEC. Regarding FELP, one thing I don't really understand is that on the call, they mentioned that they are not buying back the bonds because they don't get the benefit in terms of the debt sweep. Why? how could buying debt at 80c a dollar not benefit them? I wish they could spend excess cash flow buying back bonds or units, instead of paying out as distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 An update on pricing from Platts below. It's presented as somewhat bullish, but doesn't seem good. They say $57 per metric ton FOB New Orleans, which, by my math, means only $31.7 netbacks: ((2000/2204) * $57 - $20 (ILB mine to CMT cost) = $31.7. That number is much worse than what SXCP guided for ILB to Europe netbacks last quarter ($38) and FELP's most recent quarter netbacks for all production ($36.29). Exports, however, are starting to heat up. Overseas prices remain strong, and Indian buyers are said to be in the market in a major way. Export prices for Illinois Basin coal are reportedly being heard at $56/mt-$57/mt FOB New Orleans, said a source. India is also sourcing a lot of Northern Appalachian coal, which could create a domestic hole that Illinois Basin producers can fill, said the second producer. "There are good things to come," said the second producer. S&P Global Platts assessed Illinois Basin 11,500 Btu/lb, 5 lb SO2/MMBtu, low chlorine FOB barge coal for first quarter of 2018 delivery at $38/st, up 50 cents week on week, based on a survey of market participants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Chris Cline getting a big write up in Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/12/19/the-last-coal-tycoon-chris-cline/#68ccb1b76097 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullTheTrigger Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Bummer https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1540729/000156459017025298/felp-8k_20171220.htm On December 20, 2017, the Board of Directors of Foresight Energy GP LLC, the general partner of Foresight Energy LP (the “Partnership”), approved the submission of a re-entry plan to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) for the Deer Run Mine at the Partnership’s Hillsboro Energy complex. The re-entry submission contains a plan for the permanent sealing of the current longwall district of the Deer Run Mine immediately upon MSHA’s approval. At this time, the Partnership is uncertain as to when production will resume at its Deer Run Mine. In connection with the proposed re-entry plan, certain longwall equipment and other related assets will be permanently sealed within or may not be recovered from the Deer Run Mine. As such, the Partnership expects to record an aggregate impairment charge between $42 million and $67 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The impairment charge represents the estimated net book value of the certain longwall equipment and other related assets as of December 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Bummer https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1540729/000156459017025298/felp-8k_20171220.htm On December 20, 2017, the Board of Directors of Foresight Energy GP LLC, the general partner of Foresight Energy LP (the “Partnership”), approved the submission of a re-entry plan to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) for the Deer Run Mine at the Partnership’s Hillsboro Energy complex. The re-entry submission contains a plan for the permanent sealing of the current longwall district of the Deer Run Mine immediately upon MSHA’s approval. At this time, the Partnership is uncertain as to when production will resume at its Deer Run Mine. In connection with the proposed re-entry plan, certain longwall equipment and other related assets will be permanently sealed within or may not be recovered from the Deer Run Mine. As such, the Partnership expects to record an aggregate impairment charge between $42 million and $67 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The impairment charge represents the estimated net book value of the certain longwall equipment and other related assets as of December 2017. Well here goes the optionality. And the tax efficiency of holding an MLP is gone with the tax reform. The only saving grace is API2 at $94 and a normal winter in the US midwest. Do you guys have any idea about the insurance terms? Will there be a payout considering the existing mine is sealed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Bummer https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1540729/000156459017025298/felp-8k_20171220.htm On December 20, 2017, the Board of Directors of Foresight Energy GP LLC, the general partner of Foresight Energy LP (the “Partnership”), approved the submission of a re-entry plan to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) for the Deer Run Mine at the Partnership’s Hillsboro Energy complex. The re-entry submission contains a plan for the permanent sealing of the current longwall district of the Deer Run Mine immediately upon MSHA’s approval. At this time, the Partnership is uncertain as to when production will resume at its Deer Run Mine. In connection with the proposed re-entry plan, certain longwall equipment and other related assets will be permanently sealed within or may not be recovered from the Deer Run Mine. As such, the Partnership expects to record an aggregate impairment charge between $42 million and $67 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The impairment charge represents the estimated net book value of the certain longwall equipment and other related assets as of December 2017. Well here goes the optionality. And the tax efficiency of holding an MLP is gone with the tax reform. The only saving grace is API2 at $94 and a normal winter in the US midwest. Do you guys have any idea about the insurance terms? Will there be a payout considering the existing mine is sealed. I was wondering the same thing about insurance. The filing was a little confusing...is it still posssible the mine will come online? I know it's now a low NPV situation because they have to buy new equipment, but is it possible that they get a huge (I think Moore said $150 mm in equipment would be required) settlement and can be mining again soon? Also, I'm pretty sure insurance payments aren't subject to the cash sweep rules so maybe A large insurance payment could flow through to common holders to eat into MQD balance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Bummer https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1540729/000156459017025298/felp-8k_20171220.htm On December 20, 2017, the Board of Directors of Foresight Energy GP LLC, the general partner of Foresight Energy LP (the “Partnership”), approved the submission of a re-entry plan to the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) for the Deer Run Mine at the Partnership’s Hillsboro Energy complex. The re-entry submission contains a plan for the permanent sealing of the current longwall district of the Deer Run Mine immediately upon MSHA’s approval. At this time, the Partnership is uncertain as to when production will resume at its Deer Run Mine. In connection with the proposed re-entry plan, certain longwall equipment and other related assets will be permanently sealed within or may not be recovered from the Deer Run Mine. As such, the Partnership expects to record an aggregate impairment charge between $42 million and $67 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The impairment charge represents the estimated net book value of the certain longwall equipment and other related assets as of December 2017. Well here goes the optionality. And the tax efficiency of holding an MLP is gone with the tax reform. The only saving grace is API2 at $94 and a normal winter in the US midwest. Do you guys have any idea about the insurance terms? Will there be a payout considering the existing mine is sealed. I was wondering the same thing about insurance. The filing was a little confusing...is it still posssible the mine will come online? I know it's now a low NPV situation because they have to buy new equipment, but is it possible that they get a huge (I think Moore said $150 mm in equipment would be required) settlement and can be mining again soon? Also, I'm pretty sure insurance payments aren't subject to the cash sweep rules so maybe A large insurance payment could flow through to common holders to eat into MQD balance... Don't think they can reopen the same mine once its sealed. But they can always set up another mine nearby. I doubt they will, considering the coal price and their financial situation. They did apply for the mine expansion back in 2012. http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/residents-ask-regulators-to-reject-mine-expansion-sought-by-foresight/article_534c94d4-5a1b-5d1c-b2b9-5d2bf7166c76.html Insurance settlement will be interesting. This is what they said during the last qtr. call. Maybe the decision to seal was taken to recover the damages. "We're expending significant resources in these efforts, and we continue to pursue recovery of expenses and damages related to the Hillsboro combustion event under our property insurance policy. During the quarter, we did receive an additional $1.5 million of insurance proceeds related to this event." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Don't think they can reopen the same mine once its sealed. But they can always set up another mine nearby. I doubt they will, considering the coal price and their financial situation. They did apply for the mine expansion back in 2012. http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/residents-ask-regulators-to-reject-mine-expansion-sought-by-foresight/article_534c94d4-5a1b-5d1c-b2b9-5d2bf7166c76.html Insurance settlement will be interesting. This is what they said during the last qtr. call. Maybe the decision to seal was taken to recover the damages. "We're expending significant resources in these efforts, and we continue to pursue recovery of expenses and damages related to the Hillsboro combustion event under our property insurance policy. During the quarter, we did receive an additional $1.5 million of insurance proceeds related to this event." I thought they are talking about sealing the current longwall district of the mine, not the entire mine itself, right? I am not a mine expert, but how difficult is it open another longwall district in the same mine? Hillsboro is their best asset, I think they will try everything to restart it. It will add 8M tons per year, that's the fastest way to lower the EBITDA leverage ratio so that they can distribute and for Murray to get paid. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I thought they are talking about sealing the current longwall district of the mine, not the entire mine itself, right? I am not a mine expert, but how difficult is it open another longwall district in the same mine? Hillsboro is their best asset, I think they will try everything to restart it. It will add 8M tons per year, that's the fastest way to lower the EBITDA leverage ratio so that they can distribute and for Murray to get paid. Thoughts? Not sure what the correct terminology is. But a hole is blown up and it'll be sealed. They have 2 more to go as per this. "Hillsboro Energy’s mining complex, located in Montgomery County, in central Illinois, is designed to support up to 3 separate longwall mines producing up to 24 million tons per year. We currently operate one longwall mine called Deer Run Mine. Because its average coal seam is over 7 feet thick, Deer Run has been one of our most productive mines since we began operating the longwall in August of 2012." http://www.foresight.com/operations/ Question is if the insurance recovery would only cover the depreciated equipment or the whole site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Not sure what the correct terminology is. But a hole is blown up and it'll be sealed. They have 2 more to go as per this. "Hillsboro Energy’s mining complex, located in Montgomery County, in central Illinois, is designed to support up to 3 separate longwall mines producing up to 24 million tons per year. We currently operate one longwall mine called Deer Run Mine. Because its average coal seam is over 7 feet thick, Deer Run has been one of our most productive mines since we began operating the longwall in August of 2012." http://www.foresight.com/operations/ Question is if the insurance recovery would only cover the depreciated equipment or the whole site? Hope they can clarify it during the next conference call. The 8K really communicates poorly. Happy new year, everyone! Hope FELP will resurrect in 2018! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 13% up on no news. Who is window dressing their portfolio on the last day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted January 7, 2018 Share Posted January 7, 2018 I was perusing the PJM website and downloaded fuel mix data from Oct 6 through Jan 6 for 2016 and 2017; I've attached a graph of the data. If you assume a 10.4mm Btu per MWh heat rate for the average PJM coal plant, and 11,800 Btu per average pound of coal (probably too low), over the period in 2017, PJM plants burned 29.08 mm short tons of coal. In 2016, over the same range, the burn was 29.78 mm tons. I was surprised to see oil burn up significantly this year. I'm not sure why that's the case as oil is very expensive for power generation (I think something like $10 MMBtu). The amount of oil used in winter 2017-2018 is worth roughly 700,000 short tons of coal. I was expecting to see higher numbers for winter 2017-2018 than 2016-2017, but I guess it's not all that bad if you consider the export tons leaving the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sampr01 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Self registration to sell up to approximately $1.2 billion of certain types of securities.. Cline want to exit now.. http://www.snl.com/Cache/c392145952.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 Self registration to sell up to approximately $1.2 billion of certain types of securities.. Cline want to exit now.. http://www.snl.com/Cache/c392145952.html So does this mean that they are going to raise equity soon to get the leverage ratio down? I cannot imagine Cline exit at the price of 2X EBITDA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gadfly Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I believe this was a renewal of an older shelf registration. I don't think it means selling by major holders is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I believe this was a renewal of an older shelf registration. I don't think it means selling by major holders is imminent. Is this kind of shelf registration supposed to be renewed every three years? I thought it is a one-time thing, since they paid like ~$200K for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Gadfly, You are right, I have confirmed with IR, see his reply below: "The S-3 is similar to the one filed in the 2015. When we had the adverse court ruling in December of that year we had to remove the S-3. This is simply reinstating it. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 According to the latest EIA report, for the whole year of 2017, US gas-fired power generation actually declined more (-7.8%) than coal-fired power generation (-2.6%). https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/article?id=43698724&cdid=A-43698724-11049 However, the month of December 2017 is a different story. I guess it is due to the crash of nat gas price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I am wondering why FELP is so disconnected from the other coal plays, which generally are killing it over the last 18 months. obviously this is the definition of a special situation, but even as distributions accrue it goes down... any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I am wondering why FELP is so disconnected from the other coal plays, which generally are killing it over the last 18 months. obviously this is the definition of a special situation, but even as distributions accrue it goes down... any thoughts? Well, ARLP is also trading around 52 week low, and at a higher yield than FELP. So it is not really that disconnected..... We need FELP to raise the distribution to support the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I was thinking of BTU and ARCH.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heth247 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I was thinking of BTU and ARCH.... They are not pure thermal coal play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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