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AXL.DB.B - Anderson Energy Inc. 7.25% Convertible debentures


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The ticker has been changed as of this morning from AXL to AND and it is now trading with a bid/ask of $2.70/$3.45 and last trade at $3.36.

 

Last price from the debentures including accrued interest was around $1.99/share equivalent. So a nice pop this morning and it remains quite undervalued.

 

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The Toronto exchange says AND is Andean Resources Limited: http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=and

Is it only the name which is not update there?

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The name and the shares outstanding are wrong on the TMXMoney.com site. The quote info looks correct.

 

yeah

 

http://www.sedar.com/GetFile.do?lang=EN&docClass=8&issuerNo=00036756&issuerType=03&projectNo=02497883&docId=3939818

 

It is anticipated that the postconsolidation

common shares will commence trading on the TSX in the next three to four trading days

under the symbol AND.

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Has anyone spoken to management about decommission liabilities? I realize that all O&G companies have these on their balance sheet but are they abandoning/shutting in gas assets that could accelerate these liabilities? I am not 100% certain on the timing of these expenses and would like to get a sense if any will be incurred in the next few years. $26mm is not immaterial for this cap structure if they have cash obligations in the near term.

 

Thanks for your help.

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If you were looking for a buying opportunity, here is one this morning.

 

Still a bit more expensive than what the debentures were trading at or 15% higher but, that was a while ago with oil lower and now the simplified structure in place with possibility of a take-out.

 

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They spent $258,000 (cash) on decommissioning liabilities in Q1 per cash flow statement.

 

"The Company has regulatory and contractual obligations to suspend or abandon certain wells in 2016; the estimated expenditure to meet this obligation is less than $0.2 million. The Company continues to actively manage and reduce its decommissioning obligations beyond the minimum required by regulation. To date in 2016, the Company has abandoned 16 gross (8.7 net) wells and may abandon up to an additional 47 gross (39.7 net) wells in the remainder of 2016 for total abandonments of 63 gross (48.4 net) wells in 2016."

 

Based on the number of wells that they are planning to abandon and even assuming 4 times what was spent in Q1 for all of 2016, this is not a big concern. This is actually a good thing that they are speeding up this process since it is very cheap to do it right now with drillers and service companies looking for work.

 

Also, there always seem to be takers for these low profitability wells in exchange for the assumption of this liability.

 

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Somebody sold into a vacuum of a bids. It happens once in a while before 10 am on these Canadian small caps. Now there is a good distribution of bids between $2.25 and $2.65 on level 2.

 

However, you still only paid $25,000 per boe/d for a company in a net cash position and good netbacks. There are very few available at this price right now and none with such balance sheet.

 

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Somebody sold into a vacuum of a bids. It happens once in a while before 10 am on these Canadian small caps. Now there is a good distribution of bids between $2.25 and $2.65 on level 2.

 

However, you still only paid $25,000 per boe/d for a company in a net cash position and good netbacks. There are very few available at this price right now and none with such balance sheet.

 

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Yeah I liked the price when I placed the order so I can't complain (I'm just a natural cheapskate who wants things as cheap as possible). I did place a low ball GTC order near the recent low in case this happens again to average down.

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Looks like a good deal & much better than the status quo. Major holders of InPlay are JOG and Sprott Resource. At a quick glance ill be a well funded, low cost Cardium producer of large enough size and liquidity to attract institutional investors. Back of the envelope valuation at $60K/boed (below other Cardium players like BNE, WCP, TVE) puts a value above $3.10 per Anderson share once the dust settles.

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Looks like a good deal & much better than the status quo. Major holders of InPlay are JOG and Sprott Resource. At a quick glance ill be a well funded, low cost Cardium producer of large enough size and liquidity to attract institutional investors. Back of the envelope valuation at $60K/boed (below other Cardium players like BNE, WCP, TVE) puts a value above $3.10 per Anderson share once the dust settles.

 

Fair enough, but AND shareholders are getting less than $30k/boe/d for their Cardium production, aren't they?

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The deal makes sense. They bought 900boed at $50K/boed from Bellatrix. That one has a much higher netbacks (75% oil and liquids) . They have been reporting about 42% oil and liquids on about 1700boed which should be priced between $30-35k/boed(maybe lower). With 17.7 million shares outstanding ,I get the price per unit between $2.30-$2.40.

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The "premium" paid or our stake (%) in the new company is too low being the main disappointment. However, I agree with Sculpin that something needed to be done.

 

Anderson was a debt free producer with some cash and good netbacks. However, it was heavy into natural gas with only 42% being liquids and Q2 revenues were weak as a result. Decline rate was high. SG&A was really high on a per boe basis. PDP NAV is around $2.40/share and 2P NAV around $3.80.

 

So with their history and these numbers, getting much more than $3/share was being optimist. This management team has essentially wipeout previous shareholders. None of them is being retained and that is a not an insignificant sum being paid as severances.

 

This deal improves the company on every metric except that it will now carry some debt but, a very respectable figure. Now being mostly a light oil producer with first quartile decline rate means higher valuation. If you look at all recent deals and price paid, light oil and low decline rate are key.

 

So I think that we will get AND past fair value plus some more. Call it $3.50/share. So no real premium on the sale but, a reasonable path to unlock the value that we saw before which may not have happened under current energy prices. The original thesis called for someone to acquire Anderson on a share exchange to de-lever their balance sheet and that is what is happening.

 

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