Brexit-- Implications for Markets and Stocks

[Jurgis]

From the non-involved point of view (which is hard for me, but), couple lessons:

 

It's so easy to screw up everything by pandering to opinions you don't like or support. Cameron was an idiot to let the referendum genie out of the bottle.

 

Prediction markets sometimes have no clue. https://www.gjopen.com/questions/149-will-a-majority-of-voters-in-britain-s-upcoming-referendum-elect-to-remain-in-the-european-union (see graphs and stats).

[meiroy]

" Cameron will not be legally obliged to invoke the Lisbon treaty to start an EU exit"

 

Would be extremely interesting to hear what he has to say at 10am UK time.  Lets see how big his balls are.

 

[opihiman2]

Reading threads like this on here is really enlightening.  I was pretty surprised that 4 hours ago, it looked like the remain vote would remain.  Shocking to see that change so rapidly.  But, I don't understand why people were positioning themselves strongly on one side or another on this.  It was such a close vote in the polls, and I could see it go either way.  It's like betting on a coin toss. 

 

Anyways, will the votes even matter?  Will the politicians actually follow through?  Thoughts?

[Jurgis]

" Cameron will not be legally obliged to invoke the Lisbon treaty to start an EU exit"

 

Would be extremely interesting to hear what he has to say at 10am UK time.  Lets see how big his balls are.

 

That's true, but he could have lived nicely ever after with much smaller balls if he did not invoke the referendum in the first place.

 

Ah, yes, another lesson:

 

Never, ever, bank on referendum going your expected way. There's a reason most things are not decided by referendums and that referendums seldom give good results.

[rb]

Cameron sold his soul to win an election I guess. And yes, i'm pretty sure the votes will count and Britain is out. Oh well, I guess tomorrow is time to pick up some more Wells Fargo.

[Jurgis]

But, I don't understand why people were positioning themselves strongly on one side or another on this.

 

I position myself strongly politically. I did not position myself strongly investment-wise. Although I guess I could have gone market neutral today - might have been smart thing to do with 20/20 past vision.

 

(No smilies, not in a smiling mood).

[rb]

I didn't position myself with a bet on one side or another either. Just sat in the side. I expect that I'll be taking torpedoes on my Rolls-Royce position but i have plenty or dry powder to take advantage of opportunities such as Wells, USB or cetrain tech names that will do just fine no matter what happens to the EU but will get crushed in the next few days.

[Jurgis]

Right, investment-wise, I guess my GDWN.GB position and some minor UK holdings will take it in chin. I may add to GDWN or not - though I doubt it goes below Feb/March 1600 prices. EXOSF might drop a bunch - might add. The rest is US mostly, so it will depend on whether market goes nuclear down or takes it in a stride.

 

Like Buffett says about these things, longer term it will work out. Assuming we are not going into full blown isolationism & depression across the globe (which I don't predict yet).

[rb]

Meggit could get interesting!

[Jurgis]

Economist says it better than I ever could: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how-minimise-damage-britains-senseless-self-inflicted-blow-tragic-split

 

I should invest more into EXOSF just because they bought the bloody paper.

[meiroy]

Cameron sold his soul to win an election I guess. And yes, i'm pretty sure the votes will count and Britain is out. Oh well, I guess tomorrow is time to pick up some more Wells Fargo.

 

Well, he could do nothing and immediately resign calling for new elections which would represent again the referendum.  Only the new PM would be technically able to start the process, assuming he is on the EXIT side.

[rb]

The PM may and probably would resign. But new elections will not be called. There will be an election for the new leader for the Conservative party the winner of which will become the new PM of the UK. So it looks like Boris Johnson may be the new PM. No general election needed.

[meiroy]

 

 

none "needed" but he can call for one.

[doughishere]

#DemocracyInAction

 

It's a little bit more scarier now, huh?

[rb]

I don't think that's gonna happen. It's still party over country.

[rb]

#DemocracyInAction

Yea, really cute hashtag. It's really not gonna be that cute when those fine people at the car plant that voted for leave are gonna start loosing their jobs.

[doughishere]

#DemocracyInAction

Yea, really cute hashtag. It's really not gonna be that cute when those fine people at the car plant that voted for leave are gonna start loosing their jobs.

 

To be fair a weak pound makes goods cheaper which drives demand for British goods which in turn employs more Brits. We shall see.

 

Look to France and Germany in the following months. They start showing signs of leaving this EU experiment could get ugly....then it becomes real interesting.

 

There is only so much asset price boom with no movement in wage inflation that people will accept.

 

And the more you dip into that well the more you empower others to do the same.

 

#DemocracyInAction

[scorpioncapital]

Not to mention the strong influx of eu immigrants who might think the door is closing and want to get in before it slams shut.

[meiroy]

"@Nigel_Farage tells @susannareid100 it was a 'mistake' for Leave to claim there'd be £350M a week for NHS"

 

That is their "£350M a week for NHS" promise was a blatant lie. 

 

I think the odds that this is not going to go through just went up a bit.

 

(self bias noted)

 

 

Farage notes at the end: "maybe even re-engaging with the commonwealth".  Is that the end-game?

 

[tombgrt]

God damn this mess... F*cked up!

 

Frankenstein just lost an arm, let's see if he gets decapitated.

 

[siddharth18]

Wow...the airline stocks are getting hammered. EasyJet down almost 20%

 

 

International Consolidated (parent of british airways, Iberia, etc) - down 26%

 

 

LSE website (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/) is down.

[racemize]

Looking at the map, it is pretty clear that Scotland/Northern Ireland want in the EU and all of GB (except london) wanted out.  Maybe they should make a non-GB UK and let GB stay by itself.

[racemize]

Well, Cameron's resigned.  I guess it could still be called off, but that wasn't it.

[jobyts]

Looking at the map, it is pretty clear that Scotland/Northern Ireland want in the EU and all of GB (except london) wanted out.  Maybe they should make a non-GB UK and let GB stay by itself.

 

Since Scotland wanted to stay in EU, the voting to come out of UK can happen again, after their failed attempt 2 years back.

[meiroy]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-petition-for-second-eu-referendum-so-popular-the-government-sites-crashing-a7099996.html

 

http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/update/2016-06-24/cornwall-pleas-for-reassurance-it-will-not-be-worse-off-following-brexit-vote/

 

"Prior to the vote the Council said they were told by the Leave campaign that funding would still be available.

 

They also said they had been told Cornwall "would not be worse off" in terms of investment they received.

Now that we know the UK will be leaving the EU we will be taking urgent steps to ensure that the UK Government protects Cornwall’s position in any negotiations.

 

We will be insisting that Cornwall receives investment equal to that provided by the EU programme which has averaged £60M per year over the last ten years.

 

– JOHN POLLARD, THE LEADER OF CORNWALL COUNCIL"

 

They voted Leave. ahah.