rkbabang Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 There's no T-Mobile thread and since I am now a shareholder, I thought I'd start one. I've done zero research on this one and never even thought to look into it, but being a happy customer for a few months, I just received my free share as part of their Stock-Up promotion. Now what to do with one share of TMUS? While 1 share doesn't sound like much, they are not issuing new shares for this program, rather they are buying them on the open market. T-Mobile has >65 Million customers, so if they all claim their free share as I did it could be a significant expense. 65M * $42.90 = $2.79B. That sounds like a crazy risk to me. Also, they miss-evaluated the demand for their latest pizza promotion (who would have thought people would like free pizza?). Although it was Dominos that pulled the plug on it: Domino’s pulls out of free pizza promotion with T-Mobile as demand skyrockets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayGatsby Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Up yesterday on strong subscriber gains. Valuation metrics seem reasonable. In theory a high fixed cost, high incremental margin business. http://investor.t-mobile.com/Cache/1001215617.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001215617&iid=4091145 Obviously a huge moat to the industry, but competing against a few players who may have a better technical product. Anyone following this or any of their competitors? Few things I'm trying to understand are: 1. Is there a brand advantage that they can continue to capitalize on? So far they've done well as branding themselves as not Verizon or ATT and offering some incentives for conversions. 2. Does capex stop at some point once you have a technologically good enough network? Personally I don't see myself using my phone more for phone data, but I do see myself wanting to use it more as a hotspot. Maybe that's actually an opportunity for them. 3. Are there any future competing technologies? I keep hearing about Google balloons and such but it all seems to be in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 I've been on T-Mobile since 1999 or so (yeah). I love the almost free international roaming. I've got the Stock-Up share. I'm very pro T-Mobile. I'm strongly considering leaving for Google Fi. I'd have to buy new phone (Nexus 5X $199), but I'd save about $20 per month. So payback in 10 months... assuming no more Stock-Up deposits to my account... And I'd have a new better phone... (currently on Nexus 4). Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Of course Google Fi overlays on top of T-Mobile and Sprint. So it's not complete loss for T-mobile. But I guess it's a large margin loss. Anyway just anecdotal musings. Gotta decide... To answer your Q3, I don't think there are any competing technologies that are viable within 5 years or so. 10+ years, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 I've been on T-Mobile since 1999 or so (yeah). I love the almost free international roaming. I've got the Stock-Up share. I'm very pro T-Mobile. I'm strongly considering leaving for Google Fi. I'd have to buy new phone (Nexus 5X $199), but I'd save about $20 per month. So payback in 10 months... assuming no more Stock-Up deposits to my account... And I'd have a new better phone... (currently on Nexus 4). Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Of course Google Fi overlays on top of T-Mobile and Sprint. So it's not complete loss for T-mobile. But I guess it's a large margin loss. Anyway just anecdotal musings. Gotta decide... To answer your Q3, I don't think there are any competing technologies that are viable within 5 years or so. 10+ years, maybe. There's the potential upside that with Samsung's recent flub that the Google Pixel and the iPhone will be the main premium players in town for the major holiday season. Google Pixel is Google Fi compatible, they're shipping the sim cards for free with the phone, AND I've already had a few non-tech friends ask me about Google Fi since I'm also considering switching. It could be that there is a sizable adoption of Google Fi with new Pixel owners who were previously on a plan with Samsung phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayGatsby Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Anything specific that makes you say that? It's interesting to me that T-Mobile seems to have taken a relatively commoditized product and created a brand/culture around it that creates customer loyalty. Over the past 10 years I've had Sprint, AT&T and Verizon. All offered fine coverage, but mostly inspired a general resentment (Verizon especially had the most extreme take-it-or-leave it attitude). I hadn't read up on Google Fi previously. Seems like a good offering as long as you want one of those phones. So if all T-Mobile customers switched to Google Fi it looks like they'd have pretty significant revenue erosion although keep the subscribers. TMUS spends a ton on SG&A so I guess part of the bet is that with Google Fi the revenue they receive is basically pure EBITDA (other than some network maintenance that they probably expense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Anything specific that makes you say that? It's interesting to me that T-Mobile seems to have taken a relatively commoditized product and created a brand/culture around it that creates customer loyalty. Over the past 10 years I've had Sprint, AT&T and Verizon. All offered fine coverage, but mostly inspired a general resentment (Verizon especially had the most extreme take-it-or-leave it attitude). I hadn't read up on Google Fi previously. Seems like a good offering as long as you want one of those phones. So if all T-Mobile customers switched to Google Fi it looks like they'd have pretty significant revenue erosion although keep the subscribers. TMUS spends a ton on SG&A so I guess part of the bet is that with Google Fi the revenue they receive is basically pure EBITDA (other than some network maintenance that they probably expense). I've only been with TMobile for about 7-8 months or so, but I know what Jarvis means. I've had cell phones since the mid 90s and this is the first time I don't hate my carrier. The customer service is actually good (no really, it is), their coverage is good, their prices are reasonable (compared to Verizon or AT&T), they just give you the feeling that they are trying to keep you as a customer rather than a "screw you, where else are you going to go" attitude that the other carriers give you. And they are always trying to innovate in the product area. I absolutely love the BingeOn feature. I'm constantly streaming YouTube, or Pandora, or Spotify, all day long almost everyday and it doesn't add to my data usage. I'd need massive dataplan to replicate this if I was on another carrier. Even the cheesy things like the free share of stock or the TMobile Tuesdays free giveaways, it shows that they are actively trying to please their customers. I've tried AT&T, Sprint, Tracfone, Cricket, Boost Mobile, and Verizon in the past 20+ years and I have hated, I mean really despised every one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 ^ agree. Recent convert to T-Mobile, and I have the same feeling that they actually value me as a customer. Brilliant idea using Binge On given that their network isn't (currently) capacity constrained. Also the intermittent/variable rewards of T-Mobile Tuesdays is textbook Cialdini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Anything specific that makes you say that? Nothing very specific. The cheap international roaming (free SMS, free - but slow - data) was key moat - nobody else in US offered that. So I don't even consider Verizon/Sprint/AT&T. But now Google Fi offers this too since they are on top of T-Mobile. So it's mostly just a feeling of having had good service in the past and loyalty due to that. I also have a minor complication with replacing the phone for work reasons, which makes me a bit extra lazy to switch to Google Fi. Edit: I don't use Binge On; I don't use cellular data much overall. T-mobile Tuesdays have been disappointment - but I did not expect much. Seems like a bunch of crappy coupons for unnecessary stuff. I don't even look anymore. Was there anything worthwhile recently? From what I heard, when they had free Domino's pizza, Domino's was swamped and ran out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Anything specific that makes you say that? Nothing very specific. The cheap international roaming (free SMS, free - but slow - data) was key moat - nobody else in US offered that. So I don't even consider Verizon/Sprint/AT&T. But now Google Fi offers this too since they are on top of T-Mobile. So it's mostly just a feeling of having had good service in the past and loyalty due to that. I also have a minor complication with replacing the phone for work reasons, which makes me a bit extra lazy to switch to Google Fi. Edit: I don't use Binge On; I don't use cellular data much overall. T-mobile Tuesdays have been disappointment - but I did not expect much. Seems like a bunch of crappy coupons for unnecessary stuff. I don't even look anymore. Was there anything worthwhile recently? From what I heard, when they had free Domino's pizza, Domino's was swamped and ran out. I was with Tmobile prepaid for a good while, but had to switch to ATT for coverage. The issue has been coverage in Buildings - Tmobile owns mostly higher frequency bands that don't have great penetration through concrete or massive structures. ATT works fine in these locations. My wife was revolting that she could not reach me sometimes, so i had to kiss Tmobile bye bye. I would love the international roaming. Right now, I need to buy a dataplan (Passport) for foreign travel, which costs $60. I expense this on business travel, so there is that. I could go on prepaid with ATT for$40/month , but would have no way to get international data. I might give this Fi thing a try if the coverage works, it has been 2 years since I left and Tmobile has improved their network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Google Fi is on top of both T-Mobile and Sprint. (That's the reason they only allow 3 phone models). So it's quite possible the coverage will be better with Fi than with T-Mobile if phone gets Sprint signal inside. One annoyance with Fi is that they prefer/push (outgoing only?) calls over WiFi when you are WiFi connected. This is a bit slower to connect and throws up some message/window on the phone that's not very intuitive. Anybody using Binge On a lot is probably better of with T-Mobile. Google Fi attraction is that they only charge for data used. So my $20 savings include the fact that I would be using very little of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwy000 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 It's interesting that despite Google Fi leveraging the Sprint and T-Mobile networks, the Pixel phone is only available through Verizon (they're the only carrier allowed to sell it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 It's interesting that despite Google Fi leveraging the Sprint and T-Mobile networks, the Pixel phone is only available through Verizon (they're the only carrier allowed to sell it). Google Fi is selling it too - you probably meant mainstream carriers. I don't know what arrangement Google made with Verizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Still somewhat hate to leave T-Mobile due to loyalty haha. Anything specific that makes you say that? Nothing very specific. The cheap international roaming (free SMS, free - but slow - data) was key moat - nobody else in US offered that. So I don't even consider Verizon/Sprint/AT&T. But now Google Fi offers this too since they are on top of T-Mobile. So it's mostly just a feeling of having had good service in the past and loyalty due to that. I also have a minor complication with replacing the phone for work reasons, which makes me a bit extra lazy to switch to Google Fi. Edit: I don't use Binge On; I don't use cellular data much overall. T-mobile Tuesdays have been disappointment - but I did not expect much. Seems like a bunch of crappy coupons for unnecessary stuff. I don't even look anymore. Was there anything worthwhile recently? From what I heard, when they had free Domino's pizza, Domino's was swamped and ran out. I have a TiVo that lets me use Vudu pretty easily on the TV, so the free movie rentals are nice. Occasionally, I like to partake in a Frosty. I'm not expecting the big prizes, but the small but regular prizes are nice. Again, it's straight out of Cialdini, The Prince, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I have a TiVo that lets me use Vudu pretty easily on the TV, so the free movie rentals are nice. Occasionally, I like to partake in a Frosty. I'm not expecting the big prizes, but the small but regular prizes are nice. Again, it's straight out of Cialdini, The Prince, etc. I guess I'm not a Prince'pled guy. :P Good if it works for you. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 Anybody using Binge On a lot is probably better of with T-Mobile. Google Fi attraction is that they only charge for data used. So my $20 savings include the fact that I would be using very little of data. I agree. I also have teenagers who are using BingeOn <b>A LOT</b> as well as free Pokemon Go data until the summer of 2017, which was a TMobile Tuesday's giveaway this summer. I think I'd being paying significantly more if I switched my whole family from T-Mobile to Google Fi. Not to mention I'd also have to switch everyone from IOS to Android, buy new phones, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 I'll also say that my streaming habits have changed significantly as a result of switching to T-Mobile. I use Apple Music much more now as a result of being on Binge On. My monthly data usage has probably gone from 2GB a month to around 9GB a month, but roughly 6GB of that is on Binge On. I think it would be hard for me to switch back to being parsimonious with my data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted May 19, 2019 Share Posted May 19, 2019 Its 5G seems to have the largest range per tower compared to others, though at a slower speed. I'd think TMUS would roll out its 5G way ahead of others with much less capex needed. https://www.androidauthority.com/what-to-expect-from-t-mobile-5g-916585/ In addition, the merger with Sprint, if approved, could be a big catalyst too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted May 20, 2019 Share Posted May 20, 2019 FCC chairman backs T-Mobile, Sprint merger https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/fcc-will-not-formally-approve-t-mobile-sprint-merger-on-monday-because-it-must-still-draft-order-reuters.html A game changer for the US mobile provider landscape? Now we are down from 4 to 3 major competitors. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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