NBL0303 Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Hello all, What is your favorite short-side investment thesis at the moment? Cheers, NBL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted July 1, 2016 Share Posted July 1, 2016 Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
permabear Posted July 4, 2016 Share Posted July 4, 2016 Short Medallion Financial (NASDAQ:MFIN fka TAXI) Highly exposed to NYC taxi medallions (licenses) as over 50% of their book is invested in medallion loans. Huge debt maturities coming due in 2016 totaling 74% of all debt (not including brokered deposits). Close to tripping several regulatory covenants, which could effect FDIC insurance coverage on deposits, ability to dividend cash up to parents, ability to raise capital without diluting shareholders, etc. Massive +13% dividend yield that is being funded by debt/eating into equity (not supported by operating income). Senior executives and directors are dropping like flies. Good recent explanation here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3985501-can-medallion-financial-survive-230m-refinancing-cliff-year-end?app=1&uprof=22&isDirectRoadblock=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benhacker Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Daily Journal seems very timely. It's portfolio has been under pressure, and the market is valuing their other businesses which generate little EBITDA and are unproven at a truly amazing multiple. Portfolio is easy to hedge. Somewhat illiquid. Still like FXCM short. Many REITs seem worth a look - they seem to be trading like they are treasury substitutes these days. Low vol funds must be throwing caution to the wind or something. O for example is impressive in this regard. 3.3% yield... but it's "the monthly dividend" company, so there's that... Think CVX also an interesting short here. If you asked someone 2 years ago to predict CVX share price if you gave them the now current forward oil curve, I think you would get spit up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie! x2! Worst movie I've ever watched in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie! x2! Worst movie I've ever watched in my life. Haha..I left after I finished my popcorn..only watched maybe 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 What were yall thinking? If didn't have Will Smith of course it wasn't going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Long term U.S. treasuries appear to be a good short here. They have moved really fast to the upside now paying a very low and historically low yield. I bought a small TLT put position today. It is hard to make a convincing bet as this may go on further and maybe much further. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 russel 2000 futures, ev/ebitda for the index is above 19 with high leverage and shrinking earnings, this can't end well. But may take a while to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamecock-YT Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 What were yall thinking? If didn't have Will Smith of course it wasn't going to be good. I had incredibly low expectations going into it and they couldn't even hit those. It was like they made a movie and someone came in afterwards and just randomly cut out scenes for no rhyme or reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted July 6, 2016 Share Posted July 6, 2016 Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie! x2! Worst movie I've ever watched in my life. Haha..I left after I finished my popcorn..only watched maybe 20 minutes Did anyone figure out a way to short this movie yet? Inquiring minds are wondering... I shorted PAA because it seems to have all the downside of oil/gas without the upside. They issued a bunch of 8% convertible preferred to keep paying out distributions, but it converts at $26.25 within a couple years so at the current market price the value is suddenly increased by another 15%. I have lots of other MLP exposure in SXCP/SXC/FELP so it kind of balances it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterkrusty Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 FYI, there is a good writeup on PAA as a short on the VIC. should be available on 45-day delay at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now