NVO - Novo Nordisk

[DooDiligence]

Bloomberg Quint: Novo Settles U.S. Probe of Kickbacks, Disguised Salespeople.

 

I was shocked reading this. I had no idea Novo Nordisk had such a probe pending, allegating and implying non-compliance based internal defined Novo Nordisk compliance, called the Novo Nordisk Way.

 

To make sure, that is was not time to get in contact with GP doctor for an appointment for both Demensia eludication and Alzheimer test, I grabbed the Novo Nordisk financials, because I did not recall to read about this case. It appears this probe is actually in the notes for both 2015 and 2016, but the wording seems to me to be biased, so you get a biased impression of it with regard to severity.

 

Next, how can some US based Novo Nordisk spokesman  comment on anything Novo Nordisk related, other than "We have no comments" [ right now], when the company is in its silent period ? 2017Q1 iwill be out Wednesday.

 

It does not matter here, that this information is already out in the air from another source. It's a confirmation of some information from an other source.

 

 

Nothing wrong with a little face to face content marketing but jeez, if the "sales reps" didn't disclose that they were Novo employees...

 

 

---

 

 

"The Novo-funded training sessions with doctors and patients, along with giveaways such as blood-testing log books, amounted to illegal kickbacks to physicians in exchange for prescribing the drug, according to the suit."

 

How is a blood-testing log a kickback? (did cash exchange hands?)

 

 

---

 

 

"The diabetes educators’ performance review and compensation were tied to the amount of sales their efforts produced, the whistle-blowers said."

 

 

No more commissions on sales? (kill that commie...)

 

(grain of salt)

 

---

 

Hey John, do you think I'm being too needy on the whole ESRX thing?

[John Hjorth]

DooDiligence,

 

Yes, this is in more than one dimension concerning. I'll have follow this more closely the coming days.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

By coincidence, I edited my post 42 secs after your reply to my post - adding a question. What's your reply to that question? - Thanks in advance.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Off topic, and some personal BS & PS:

 

Your new profile picture and profile text is great!  - I'm just such a sooo slooow cacther - either not nosy enough, or just too dumb - or both! Please do never forget, that intellectual honesty and sincereness are the most important personal traits of them all!

[DooDiligence]

DooDiligence,

 

Yes, this is in more than one dimension concerning. I'll have follow this more closely the coming days.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

By coincidence, I edited my post 42 secs after your reply to my post - adding a question. What's your reply to that question? - Thanks in advance.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Off topic, and some personal BS & PS:

 

Your new profile picture and profile text is great!  - I'm just such a sooo slooow cacther - either not nosy enough, or just too dumb - or both! Please do never forget, that intellectual honesty and sincereness are the most important personal traits of them all!

 

 

My intellectual honesty may be in question but I'm displaying the flag in all sincerity...

 

 

 

I have assistance OTW!

[John Hjorth]

Any of my few fellow board members invested in NVO considering buying puts on this thing monday or tuesday to hedge the ride on this thing next week? - I would, if I could - but I can't - because of a Danish tax regime being in the Stone age.

 

Recycling this question from earlier. -Anyone? DooDiligence, LC ?

[DooDiligence]

Any of my few fellow board members invested in NVO considering buying puts on this thing monday or tuesday to hedge the ride on this thing next week? - I would, if I could - but I can't - because of a Danish tax regime being in the Stone age.

 

Recycling this question from earlier. -Anyone? DooDiligence, LC ?

 

 

I would consider taking the short end of puts under $32 (back into more shares or catch the premium...)

[John Hjorth]

We have to note that there always are commercial considerations related to litigation. Settlement does not as basis imply admitting any wrongdoing, except if mentioned specifically or the opposite.

 

Provisions for legal disputes in the balance sheet in the financials for the last two years :[those provisions include legal fees]:

 

Year end 2015: DKK 1,397 M

Year end 2016: DKK 1,915 M

Paid in 2015: DKK 125 M [most likely just legal fees]

Paid in 2016: DKK 53 M [most likely just legal fees].

 

We can't even conclude, that this particular settlement will hit P/L in 2017Q2 to any extent - because of the quite large provisions.

 

Those are the facts - so far.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

2017Q1 will be out tomorrow.

 

I'm not superstitious, but tomorrow is Great Yelling Day here in Denmark.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit: Fixed digit separators.

[DooDiligence]

We have to note that there always are commercial considerations related to litigation. Settlement does not as basis imply admitting any wrongdoing, except if mentioned specifically or the opposite.

 

Provisions for legal disputes in the balance sheet in the financials for the last two years :[those provisions include legal fees]:

 

Year end 2015: DKK 1,397 M

Year end 2016: DKK 1,915 M

Paid in 2015: DKK 125 M [most likely just legal fees]

Paid in 2016: DKK 53 M [most likely just legal fees].

 

We can't even conclude, that this particular settlement will hit P/L in 2017Q2 to any extent - because of the quite large provisions.

 

Those are the facts - so far.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

2017Q1 will be out tomorrow.

 

I'm not superstitious, but tomorrow is Great Yelling Day here in Denmark.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit: Fixed digit separators.

 

 

There is no need to be uneasy when the sirens sound...

[John Hjorth]

2017Q1 is out.

 

Much better overall performance for the quarter than I expected. Operational profit up 10 per cent YoY.

 

It seems the market is surprised also - the stock has taken a large jump upwards this morning - almost 7 per cent. Foreign investors are the major driver as buyers.

 

Guidance for the year 2017 basically still the same, but range narrowed by one per cent point in both ends, because a quarter of the year has passed, and POTUS hasen't been able to carry his health care reform through Congress. [What will happen in the long term with regard to US Health Care is a totally different matter, - I know].

 

I'm pleased to see neither disappointment nor sandbagging on earlier communicated expectations.

[DooDiligence]

2017Q1 is out.

 

Much better overall performance for the quarter than I expected. Operational profit up 10 per cent YoY.

 

It seems the market is surprised also - the stock has taken a large jump upwards this morning - almost 7 per cent. Foreign investors are the major driver as buyers.

 

Guidance for the year 2017 basically still the same, but range narrowed by one per cent point in both ends, because a quarter of the year has passed, and POTUS hasen't been able to carry his health care reform through Congress. [What will happen in the long term with regard to US Health Care is a totally different matter, - I know].

 

I'm pleased to see neither disappointment nor sandbagging on earlier communicated expectations.

 

As complicated as diabetes, hemophilia & obesity are to understand.

As hard as it is to predict the future with regards to pricing.

NVO's future seems way easier to divine than a PBM's...

 

Tangible vs Intangible

[John Hjorth]

More armwrestling: The Wall Steet Journal : 3th May 2017: Novo Nordisk Struggles to Raise Prices in Face of Weakening British Pound - Financial Chief Brandgaard says Danish insulin producer is inceasing pressure on British authorities.

 

 

[DooDiligence]

More armwrestling: The Wall Steet Journal : 3th May 2017: Novo Nordisk Struggles to Raise Prices in Face of Weakening British Pound - Financial Chief Brandgaard says Danish insulin producer is inceasing pressure on British authorities.

 

 

 

Novo margins leave a lot of room to lower prices.

 

I don't think they have to do it drastically but they do have to do it.

 

Plenty of fat people & always will be (we'll be fine...)

[John Hjorth]

2017Q2 was out yesterday. At least to me - very, very impressive. Price pressure in the US, severe currency headwinds with regard to USD, and still above DKK 20B after tax, for 6 months, basically earnings equal to cash flow, and basically all still hosed back to shareholders.

 

I still don't fully understand the figures... - it is about product mix on the different markets, not only about price pressure on the US market, and at the same time extreme growth rates for new generation diabetes products.

[John Hjorth]

I'm happy to see this over with: Novo Nordisk announces conclusion of US federal investigation of marketing practices.

 

USD 46.5 M to the US Government, and USD 12.15 M to resolve a complaint filed by the Government on behalf of the FDA in federal court.

 

This case has been mentioned in this NVO topic before, and read really bad then. Good it's over, and most likely was not so bad at all, compared to how it read then.

[John Hjorth]

Novo Nordisk Company Announcement - late this evening, my local time [2017.10.18]: Semaglutide receives positive 16-0 vote in favour of approval from FDA Advisory Committee.

 

This is perhaps one of the most important announcements from the company this year, and very important for the future of the company mid term, in its competition with Eli Lilly in the market for GLP-1.

[Sharad]

Novo Nordisk Company Announcement - late this evening, my local time [2017.10.18]: Semaglutide receives positive 16-0 vote in favour of approval from FDA Advisory Committee.

 

This is perhaps one of the most important announcements from the company this year, and very important for the future of the company mid term, in its competition with Eli Lilly in the market for GLP-1.

 

FDA final decision is expected in December (though this once weekly injectable will be the third to come to market after Eli Lilly and Astra Zeneca). Another key item will be whether the company can initiate phase 3 studies of its daily oral semaglutide. A positive phase 3 and FDA approval for that one would be an even bigger blockbuster should it come to fruition (though that would be 30-36 months away).

[John Hjorth]

2017Q3 is out. Looks good to me. No particular information about 2018 expectations, except some loose statements - more clear and specific statements about pricing in the US etc. in connection with the 2017 Annual Report on 1st February 2018. The company is continuing shoveling in cash at a good clip.

[DooDiligence]

2017Q3 is out. Looks good to me. No particular information about 2018 expectations, except some loose statements - more clear and specific statements about pricing in the US etc. in connection with the 2017 Annual Report on 1st February 2018. The company is continuing shoveling in cash at a good clip.

 

++1

 

Prosperity leads 2 obesity leads to diabetes + NVO's continued innovation = a semi blind follower / owner (me)

[John Hjorth]

Danish investment economist Per Hansen, Danish branch of Swedish Nordnet Bank AB, is running a blog on Beringske Business called "PERspektiv". Today, he has done a post about Novo Nordisk A/S, which I think sums it up pretty well - short term : Novo Nordisk: Long time since they have slept so well in Bagsværd.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

That said, in this business, the company has to execute day by day to remain a success. Eli Lilly and Sanofi aren't exactly in hibernation either.

[John Hjorth]

Ozempic® (semaglutide) approved in the US.

 

Basically expected, but still important good news.

[DooDiligence]

https://www.thepharmaletter.com/article/novo-nordisk-cso-warns-nash-market-will-develop-slowly-urges-all-to-moderate-expectations

 

Urging moderate expectations seems reasonable (especially if you want to discourage the market from thinking about what could be a big winner over the next decade or so...)

[John Hjorth]

Thank you for sharing, DooDiligence,

 

Personally, I have a deep professional respect for Mr. Thomsen. There is no doubt that he is the actual "Mr. Novo", if anybody should be called so [one time "appointed" so by Mr. Lars Rebien Sørensen a few years ago in an interview].

 

Mr. Thomsen has actually been interviewed a lot here in Denmark in recent years, unfortunately the interviews mostly have been held in Danish language and/or are released behind paywalls, so I'm unable to link to them here on CoBF with benefit for CoBF readers.

 

He is the mastermind & architect behind the Novo Nordisk R&D programme.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

You must have done extremely well with this stock in 2017, DooDiligence. It looks to me like 46 - 47 percent plus dividends for NVO US ADR. Sharad too, but perhaps a little less, because of currency relations as a Canadian investor. I'm up 29 percent this year, and consinder that a patch on what happened in 2016, despite averaging down pretty agressively in the late part of 2016.

 

For the sake of God if anything for me have to tank 40 percent during a very short time span, let it be Berkshire, not this thing... -  again.

 

Rodeo Bull riding is not my favorite discipline. I may end up in a hospital! [<- for NVO, a mental one!]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

The hay days of Novo Nordisk are over. I don't expect ever to have such a year with this stock again - unless a year like 2016 shows up again on the road going forward. God forbid that!

 

I'm still bullish about the company long term, and it's my second largest position, and consider it one of the few Danish companies that actually have world class.

 

Dividends will be reinvested going forward for my part. [<- I am over the grenade shock, the eardrums have healed, and the Lady of the House tells me that my PTSD has nothing to do with NVO tanking in 2016, because she has considered me mentally unstable before the autumn for 2016 ...].

[DooDiligence]

I'm still holding all the original shares I bought in NVO & love the focus they have.

 

I'm fine holding it through any future ups & downs.

 

NASH could be a big business for them.

 

---

 

I echo the sentiment on BRK & wish it would tank early in the morning on 2 Jan.

[DooDiligence]

http://www.nashbiotechs.com/nash-biotech-analysis/nash-treatment--market/market-forecast-including.html

[John Hjorth]

SA: Novo bids $3.1B for Ablynx. [Credit DooDiligence]

Novo Nordisk Press Release: Novo Nordisk has proposed to acquire Ablynx for up to €30.50 per share in cash, consisting of €28.00 upfront and €2.50 in Contingent Value Rights.

 

Somehow, I'm in a state of shock by this. I simply don't understand the thesis - and price! - here.

 

 

 

 

[Sharad]

 

The hay days of Novo Nordisk are over. I don't expect ever to have such a year with this stock again - unless a year like 2016 shows up again on the road going forward. God forbid that!

 

I'm still bullish about the company long term, and it's my second largest position, and consider it one of the few Danish companies that actually have world class.

 

 

I actually believe that NVO will do quite well in the future, and might see another big year in 2019 or 2020, as I think oral semaglutide will present an opportunity for an FDA approved oral weight loss drug, given the results they have been seeing. Such a product could be a game changer, and open the product innovation to an over-the-counter product that is FDA approved a few years after a prescription product is released (to me this is the holy grail for them). Imagine what that does to all of GNC's weight management products.

 

NVO has been a great investment for me...I started following it accidentally in 2000...I wish I had accidentally purchased it then, too. NVO still has lots of room for growth (geographically and vertically), though the process of realizing that growth will be a rocky one, indeed.