SafetyinNumbers Posted October 2, 2018 Author Share Posted October 2, 2018 There was still about 150k left at $2.30 the last I saw. Today was definitely not the day. Finally lifted that seller. That was a month overhang so maybe some selling sold in front of the block and we can lift higher here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorteCapital Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 There was still about 150k left at $2.30 the last I saw. Today was definitely not the day. Finally lifted that seller. That was a month overhang so maybe some selling sold in front of the block and we can lift higher here. So accurate. I never look at TA but will try to identify these kind of situations in the future in iliquid stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted October 5, 2018 Author Share Posted October 5, 2018 There was still about 150k left at $2.30 the last I saw. Today was definitely not the day. Finally lifted that seller. That was a month overhang so maybe some selling sold in front of the block and we can lift higher here. So accurate. I never look at TA but will try to identify these kind of situations in the future in iliquid stocks. Now we are right into the zone where the 2018 debs converted into stock US$1.95 so not surprising we are pausing again. Hopefully we will see coverage initiated by GMP sometime soon. They got paid well on the debt refinancing so it would seem logical they would initiate at some point. Also, the new 2024 notes list next week and could give some liquidity to those how bought them in April. Perhaps, some will wish to sell notes to buy equity. We haven’t seen many warrants trade hands so these note holders might want more equity exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Q3 earnings out earlier this week. Strong gold production (57,163 oz), cash up, debt down. Overall a solid quarter. Gold price has been flat to slightly up in Q4, so no immediate concerns there. If they can continue this level of production leverage will continue to come down, which should benefit the equity. Given the operating profit multiple this trades at, I think multiple expansion is a possibility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Hmmm, I wonder what prompted this? Maybe another gold miner expressed some initial interest? http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Adopts-Shareholder-Rights-Plan/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 Hmmm, I wonder what prompted this? Maybe another gold miner expressed some initial interest? http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Adopts-Shareholder-Rights-Plan/default.aspx They explicitly said that is not the case, didn’t they? Perhaps an activist investor that is tired of it being too cheap or a marketing ploy to get people to take a look. Anyone see any other cheap gold stocks? I bought some SGI.V. It also looks very cheap although has higher costs but if they can get grades up then we should have higher production and lower costs along with a rising gold price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Dundee Precious Metals or DPM. Production is going up around 50% this year with new mine just starting up. No need for capital, net debt free balance sheet, production cost well below peers. Similar trading metrics as other cheap names such as AR, LMC and TGZ. And Bulgaria being a EU country appears to be a much better place for geopolitical risk vs Columbia and many African countries. I believe that the story is getting out and the stock price is now just about to break up higher. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Hmmm, I wonder what prompted this? Maybe another gold miner expressed some initial interest? http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Adopts-Shareholder-Rights-Plan/default.aspx They explicitly said that is not the case, didn’t they? Perhaps an activist investor that is tired of it being too cheap or a marketing ploy to get people to take a look. Anyone see any other cheap gold stocks? I bought some SGI.V. It also looks very cheap although has higher costs but if they can get grades up then we should have higher production and lower costs along with a rising gold price. The exact language they used ("The Plan was not adopted in response to any specific proposal or intention to acquire control of Gran Colombia.") leaves some room for interpretation. An outside party could have approached them to initiate a discussion about a possible transaction without actually making a "specific proposal." Yeah, I suppose it could also be an attempt to stave off a potential activist investor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Hmmm, I wonder what prompted this? Maybe another gold miner expressed some initial interest? http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Adopts-Shareholder-Rights-Plan/default.aspx They explicitly said that is not the case, didn’t they? Perhaps an activist investor that is tired of it being too cheap or a marketing ploy to get people to take a look. Anyone see any other cheap gold stocks? I bought some SGI.V. It also looks very cheap although has higher costs but if they can get grades up then we should have higher production and lower costs along with a rising gold price. Hey all: I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Caledonia Mining (CMCL) is the cheapest gold stock that I am aware of. Good balance sheet. P/E of about 5. Nice dividend of close to 5% Real kicker/option is that in about a year or so, production is going to expand significantly. They sank a second mine to over 1km deep. Shaft has been successfully sunk. They are now starting on putting in the galleries. Stock is earning over $1/share now...in 2 years could easily be earning $2.50/share. One problem though, they are in Zimbabwe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 I have owned Caledonia and DPM in the past. Both are cheap. SGI is in Australia so at least they have the safe jurisdiction box checked. I think FCF/EV is over 100% on 2020 numbers. I also like ROXG but it’s in Africa. Good growth and rising free cash flow which it sounds like they will use to buyback stock. Also giant volume in the last week which i’m hearing cleaned up a big seller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Dundee Precious Metals or DPM. Production is going up around 50% this year with new mine just starting up. No need for capital, net debt free balance sheet, production cost well below peers. Similar trading metrics as other cheap names such as AR, LMC and TGZ. And Bulgaria being a EU country appears to be a much better place for geopolitical risk vs Columbia and many African countries. I believe that the story is getting out and the stock price is now just about to break up higher. Cardboard Nice production number out of DPM. CIBC upgrades to OP and moves target to $6 from $4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Gran Colombia out with an update. http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Golds-2018-Annual-Production-Reaches-218001-Ounces-Up-25-Over-2017-Announces-Details-for-the-Forthcoming-Quarterly-Repayment-of-Its-Gold-Notes-On-January-31-2019/default.aspx * @ YE 2018 they have $33M cash and * @ YE 2018 there are $88.250M of gold-linked notes still outstanding * They are guiding for 2019 gold production to be approximately flat Y/Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Congratulations on those who bought and held GCM! Probably has good upside left too. I lost patience/confidence way back when there was that strike and got out for no gain/no loss... The entire sector of junior miners is interesting here IMO. I don't ever recall seeing so many of these with good growth prospects, low to no debt, trading very cheaply and being profitable. We are also seeing major consolidation in the sector with Newmont-Goldcorp this week, so supply is not likely to grow much globally. The game by the big guys seems to be capital discipline, cutting costs, looking for synergies, focusing on best grades/mines having been burned in years back with expansion. By the way, DPM just saw quite significant insider buying by GMT at around $3.55 CAD: https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=DPM+%7C+Dundee+Precious+Metals Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thanks Cardboard! It still looks cheap and so does DPM. I had a chance to meet with SGI.V this week. It seems like all the bad news is priced in without any optionality for higher grades which would result in higher production and lower costs. Next update will be end of January and we will get Q4 production and the 2019 budget. I expect them to put up guidance they can beat. Check out slide 15 in their deck for TD: https://www.superior-gold.com/site/assets/files/2309/superior_gold_-_corporate_presentation_-_january_2019_web.pdf If they can get to 5g/t vs the reserve grade of 6g/t, they can produce over 125k oz at an AISC less than $900 and that would put the stock at less than 1x EV/EBITDA. It also has no debt (net cash is about 30 cents of the 75 cent share price), high management ownership at 9% and operates in Australia. But it’s too small for most hedge funds and long only funds to care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Congratulations on those who bought and held GCM! Probably has good upside left too. I lost patience/confidence way back when there was that strike and got out for no gain/no loss... The entire sector of junior miners is interesting here IMO. I don't ever recall seeing so many of these with good growth prospects, low to no debt, trading very cheaply and being profitable. We are also seeing major consolidation in the sector with Newmont-Goldcorp this week, so supply is not likely to grow much globally. The game by the big guys seems to be capital discipline, cutting costs, looking for synergies, focusing on best grades/mines having been burned in years back with expansion. By the way, DPM just saw quite significant insider buying by GMT at around $3.55 CAD: https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=DPM+%7C+Dundee+Precious+Metals Cardboard After a really nice run, $GCM has pulled back somewhat due (I think) to: - Tragic bombing of a Bogota police academy that killed 20+. This has presumably raised awareness of the still fragile political situation in Colombia - slightly lower gold price I don't own as much as a I used to, but still have a position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 If anyone is looking for exposure on GCM, the long term warrants (GCM.WT.B) are being offered at a very cheap vol close to 30. As a refresher, strike is C$2.21 and they expire in April 2024 vs the stock at ~C$3.30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 GMP initiates coverage with a Buy and a $6PT. Has it trading at 3x EPS and 2x EBITDA while forecasting declining production this year and using a $1250 gold price so there is upside to the estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 If anyone is looking for exposure on GCM, the long term warrants (GCM.WT.B) are being offered at a very cheap vol close to 30. As a refresher, strike is C$2.21 and they expire in April 2024 vs the stock at ~C$3.30. Vol squeezed to 20 now on these warrants. I knew we would see a squeeze but surprised it would be this much! Stock is $3.76 bid, so intrinsic value of the warrants is $1.55 vs the offer price of $1.86. Not a lot of option value! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 I bought even more today. Market has a net short position in gold currently. Last time this happened was April 2001. You can look for yourself where gold was trading at that point in time. People are correct that gold has little fundamental value and over time it might even be threatened by other and new stores of value. It is also kinda useless as a hedge against (geopolitical) uncertainty and shit hitting the fan, as we have learned in the last few years. The beauty of those characteristics is that it is very susceptible to pure sentiment. People will push it around to wherever their sentiment allows them to push it. Few limits imposed by rationality, as if investors have much of that trait anyway... Maybe rising rates are making gold less attractive to hold, but I don't see it as the price determinant. The stronger dollar has certainly helped but I'm betting sentiment is still the main cause of the lower price. We don't need a higher gold price for GCM to work out with costs so low and valuation so cheap. But if sentiment is any indicator, this could be one of the best contrarian bets over the next few years. So far, this has played out very nicely. I partly changed brokers recently and sold out of most of my GCM position at around $3.35 for a nice profit, hoping to buy it back at the new broker at around the same prices. Happy to see this one get recognised a little but sad if it runs away with a bigger position! Needless to say it is just a bias preventing me from buying back in right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 Nice trade Tom! I would look at the warrants to get back in. They have less liquidity but with the vol so low, you haven’t missed much by buying them now. Basically, at $3.35 and the warrants at $1.80 implies about a 40 vol which is still low versus more senior producers with listed leaps. I think a note holder woke up and decided to sell and move on and not really looking at the vol they are selling at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorteCapital Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Ready-to-Invest-in-Venezuela/default.aspx +8% right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Ready-to-Invest-in-Venezuela/default.aspx +8% right now.. Not sure how much it has to do with the spin versus the gold price. The warrants (GCM.WT.B) still seem like a cheap place to be with vol relatively muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingalsbe.parekh Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Increases-Interest-in-Sandspring-Resources-to-Approximately-18/default.aspx Has anyone checked out SSP? Pretty significant holding now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Gran Colombia crucifying its shareholders upon a cross of gold with this press release: https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/03/01/1745407/0/en/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Files-Preliminary-Short-Form-Prospectus-for-Equity-Offering.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Gran Colombia crucifying its shareholders upon a cross of gold with this press release: https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/03/01/1745407/0/en/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Files-Preliminary-Short-Form-Prospectus-for-Equity-Offering.html Amateur hour. http://www.grancolombiagold.com/news-and-investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/Gran-Colombia-Gold-Announces-C20000000-Convertible-Debenture-Bought-Deal-and-Termination-of-Previously-Announced-Equity-Offering/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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