Cardboard Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 See: Crude oil to hit $90 a barrel as diesel, jet fuel demand soars, Morgan Stanley predicts http://www.cnbc.com/id/105212429 Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 It is now trading at $29,000 per flowing. Really good one day pop! At that price, I would sell some and look at competition in heavy: GXE, ATH. ATH is trading at $31,000 per flowing, has a nice mix of bitumen and light and if they go ahead with their infrastructure sale it will be incredibly cheap, again... PPR is also much cheaper than all of these right now. However, I don't think it will do anything unless this arbitration is positive. That is the impact of a management team with a high G&A, multiple equity raises. Simply no trust. Cardboard https://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2018/05/17/a-game-changer-acquisition-for-altura/#comments This is a good summary. He made a little error on potential growth rate for 2019 but we can classify it under being conservative. I'd be very happy with 2500 boe by YE 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 My OSD leaps on fire too lately. PPR being a turd as usual. ;D And should have not been cheap yesterday and buy more ATU at $0.50. I felt I missed a chance to pick up more. Can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 My OSD leaps on fire too lately. PPR being a turd as usual. ;D And should have not been cheap yesterday and buy more ATU at $0.50. I felt I missed a chance to pick up more. Can't win them all. PPR hedges are annoying but if you ignore that, the quarterly cash flow numbers should be very strong going forward assuming they can maintain production where it is now. Plus you have the QC catalysts that could come at any time. Seems like someone gave up today the way they sold it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Looks like it. IPO weak as well. Tried to buy some GXE and PPR after selling some bought CRC calls again but missed both! ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 How could you possibly miss PPR? Traded all day between $0.40 and $0.44. You want the 52 week low of $0.35? Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 How could you possibly miss PPR? Traded all day between $0.40 and $0.44. You want the 52 week low of $0.35? Cardboard I put in an order at $0.41 too late. It's already my second largest Canadian oil position so if it goes up I'll win anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted May 19, 2018 Share Posted May 19, 2018 Nice Twitter thread on oil thesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-g20-sullivan/u-s-will-not-recognize-venezuela-election-result-state-department-idUSKCN1IL0QS?il=0 US considering oil sanctions as Venezuela protest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pick52 Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/forget-about-oil-at-dollar80-the-big-rally-is-in-forward-prices/ar-AAxA2a5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Eric Nuttall presentation 04/25: Finally watched this - and I must say that I agree with him. In fact he may be underestimating the production deficit over the next few years and as a result I think the next few years could be the next "oil boom". That said, following CM's mantra of "invert, invert" I am trying to poke holes in his thesis ... Because of my bias its hard to come up with bear arguments but here are a few: - Russia may be able to produce more than it is currently, Putin under pressure from oligarchs to allow them to increase production so the Russia-OPEC deal falls apart - OPEC has spare capacity, more than we believe - shale production continues to grow Thoughts - bear or bull? cheers Zorro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly discuss raising oil output: http://www.cnbc.com/id/105231437 So far the effect is a 2% drop on Brent and WTI or down to around $77 and $69. The intent of Saudi Arabia and Russia should be to stabilize oil at these higher level and prevent a spike heading into the summer driving and higher demand season for which the official start is Monday actually or Memorial Day. After all they have been through, no change in players involved and likely pleased with progress so far with both price and fundamentals, they certainly should not be thinking of opening the floodgates. It should be a gradual move based on real production level. Recall that Iran production is still fully coming in the market with no change yet. I see this as a positive despite the fact that my holdings will likely get hit today: will keep demand strong, prevent hit on the economy and incentivize shale producers to seek profits vs production growth. However, in a year or two with Iran sanctioned, Venezuela hurt even more by this action, lower shale growth, no long term project coming on stream (and why would you commit to one today?), continued global demand growth, the supply crunch will be unavoidable and only demand destruction due to high prices will be the solution. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 25, 2018 Share Posted May 25, 2018 VZ sanctions are going to remove a lot of barrels until Maduro is replaced. If there is to be no change in oil-market fundamentals, that supply has to be replacd by others - hence OPEC/Russia open the taps. It implies that incremental US and illegal VZ production cannot meet the forecast near-term shortfall, and that tightening around Iranian production has begun (nukes related). SA also has the Aramco IPO coming up; the more they can pump in the near-term, the more they will receive from the sale. WTI remains stable (65-75/barrel), new US shale production remains viable, replacement heavy oil prices rise (Canada) with incremental production frozen out of the global market (infrastructure land-lock). Gulf coast refineries remain at capacity, secure incremental supply of heavy supporting incremental supply of light shale. Assuming Iranian sanctions, illegal Iranian production and remaining OPEC capacity addressing any near-term supply shock. Long-term, price ratchets up as annual net supply capacity reduction remains in effect. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Found on reddit, thought I would share here, GS research on oil. https://www.dropbox.com/s/g2pcsnlxp52ufbw/GS%20on%20OPEC%20and%20Russia.pdf?dl=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted June 4, 2018 Share Posted June 4, 2018 Venezuela cannot meet its supply commitments for June: https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/caracas-venezuela/pdvsa-tells-crude-buyers-it-cannot-meet-full-21057038?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=oil&utm_content=photo&utm_campaign=news&hootpostid=af0d8044ec185bae8b37c64af59e476d And with Russia and Saudi Arabia offering to meet any shortfall (along with Iranian barrels due to sanctions), Venezuela is getting less money per barrel due to reduced prices. So what is happening is that "spare" capacity, which is really ramped-up/unsustainable supply before negotiations took place for the OPEC/non-OPEC "cuts", is being used to meet supply that will not be able to return to market: Venezuela will plunge and more and more into crisis with lower volume/lower price and it will take years after to ramp it back-up if the country's debt is ever renegotiated to amicable terms. Iran is similar with companies leaving left, right and center, so new volume is gone for a long time and sanctions will remove supply for sure: https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/06/04/p-g-ending-operations-in-iran-because-of-trump.html http://www.mikrofonnews.com/en/general-electric-leaves-iran-due-to-sanctions/ Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 WCS price jump: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-oil-has-record-day-after-enbridge-scraps-new-rules-1.1087587 Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 That WCS differential is going to shrink further as the June VZ shortfalls show up at Gulf Coast refiners. WCSB heavy sour is around 22 API, whereas comparable VZ crude is around 12-15 API but less sour. It's not going to be a 1:1 swap of heavy sour for VZ crude. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 America and Trump are desperate for oil: "09:16 AM EDT, 06/05/2018 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices were down for the third-straight session Tuesday, dropping to the lowest since mid-May after news reports that the United States asked Saudi Arabia to boost output by one million barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery was down US$0.24 to US$64.51 per barrel while August Brent oil dropped US$0.92 to US$74.37. The drops came after Bloomberg News reported the Trump Administration had asked Saudi Arabia and other major producers to raise output to check rising oil prices and to replace volumes lost when it imposed new sanctions on Iran last month. OPEC is meeting later this month and will decide if it will end 1.8 million barrels per day of export cuts, shared with Russia, in order to replace supplies lost due to the Iran sanctions and the collapse of Venezuela's oil industry." Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted June 5, 2018 Share Posted June 5, 2018 Desperate for oil? Certainly desperate to keep the price from spiraling up and causing a recession. Some of the economic growth in the last three years in net importing countries has been fueled by low oil prices. Of prices go much higher growth will start to be dampened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Should have stayed with intuition on PPR. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Should have stayed with intuition on PPR. ;( Did you sell? At least with PPR unlike some other QC plays, the Alberta assets support the valuation. That being said, some people owned it just for QC regulations so it makes sense there will be selling pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted June 6, 2018 Share Posted June 6, 2018 Should have stayed with intuition on PPR. ;( Did you sell? At least with PPR unlike some other QC plays, the Alberta assets support the valuation. That being said, some people owned it just for QC regulations so it makes sense there will be selling pressure. I didn't as there should be enough MOS in rest of the company. But as I stated before, earnings disappointed before as well. I definitely saw this as a catalyst for the company and figure they will now continue to lag with a poor balance sheet a less room to move. Will definitely sell at a better price (without trying to anchoring to buying price too much). Can't really blame this on diworsification of ideas. Sure, I'd be up over 50% with more in GEAR but it is already a 35% position and I've done well with other diversifications like CRC with some options with over 1000% return in a few months. You win some, you lose some. This could still turn out to be a good investment over the longer term but I see better opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 I don't have the guts to concentrate my portfolio that much. Good for you! I understand there is supposed to be an operations update in the next few weeks. Maybe that will offset the weak Q1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Russia also desperate for oil: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/07/russias-vladimir-putin-holds-annual-phone-in.html "Agreements have been reached at the government level with all companies to increase the production of oil products and on deliveries to the domestic market to not permit a deficit," Novak said via video link. "Additionally, we have worked out a series of measures aimed at stabilization. I am referring to the possibility of introducing export tariffs by the Russian government on deliveries of oil products for export." Obviously, I am using the term desperate to create a shock. The Russians don't want either to see fuel prices to go up at home with a slowly recovering economy, yet they want full prices from outsiders to fill their coffers. It is an interesting dynamic that is developing and quite contrary to what the market was expecting or that Russia would simply follow the Saudis and essentially obey to Trump's demand for more oil. It seems that they may increase production of oil and restrict gasoline exports to only help drop fuel prices in their own country. So Russia may end up not exporting a barrel more of oil nor of gasoline/diesel. Regarding the Saudis, I am quite certain that they are not entertaining the idea of flooding the market after a year and a half of progress towards their objective: higher oil prices but, not skyrocketing. Inventories have about returned to normal and they will likely put more oil on the market only to avoid supply from dropping from current level. You make the call: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/07/opec-meeting-on-june-22-likely-to-see-disagreements.html Then, the more they mess around with prices or trying to keep them not too high for now, the lesser is the incentive to develop more. Already 1 trillion $ U.S. has been cut from capex budgets from 2015-2020 according to Wood Mackenzie. With an acceptable price, demand then keeps on growing, people buy more SUV's, world income continues to go up and eventually you have more demand "hooked" to oil with no more immediate extra supply available at all. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombgrt Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Currently listening to Goehring & Rozencwajg Intro Webinar. For those interested, might be able to still join! Sold off some CRC (a few more of last calls and common) today and picked up some TOO leaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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