muscleman Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Recent polls put the “no” vote just ahead, with more than 20% undecided. http://www.wsj.com/articles/next-wild-card-for-markets-italys-constitutional-referendum-1479465701 December 4th. Could the recent market rally end here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTerm Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 This is not a vote about leaving the EU. Rather it is about a constitutional amendment that, in the guise of making the political process 'work more smoothly', is an attempt, among other things, to concentrate power in the political parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 The "problem" here beeing the Italian banks, where EU don't accept the Italian State to bail out the Italian banks, because it's considered state subsidies by EU, based on common EU competition regulation. [Denmark has also had such certain cases with Danish banks]. Basically, everybody - except the greek citizens and I - want to leave EU. Nothing new under the sky here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Yes. Basically Italy cannot exit the EU. It will unleash a massive banking crisis which will be incredibly bad for the Italian economy. It was different for Greece. Since Greek banks were essentially already bankrupt they didn't much to loose. But you don't want to trigger a banking crisis just cause you're bored. But then when you put it to the people anything can happen. Plus it's quite hard to explain the mechanisms of a banking crisis to a population. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 I would really like gio to put some shade on this, based on his local/national knowledge, and his professional involvement in the RE/construction business. gio does not seem to around here anymore - within the last few months, unfortunately. I really hope gio comes back to us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Anybody on this board following the Italian situation - some places called "Quitaly" - right now? -The Referendum vote is on this coming Sunday. Personally, I have no idea about what this will bring short term - in the light of the US Presidential Election about three weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Yeah, it seems like everyone thinks it will be a no vote though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 It's going to be a rough couple of years for Europe. Even France and Germany have a majority who want to hold referendums. Just imagine the disaster it would be for the E.U. if those "surprised" and Germany and France were slated to exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 The voting procedure is running right now in Italy. I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 The voting procedure is running right now in Italy. I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see. I see Austria stayed the course this weekend. Maybe, just maybe, voters everywhere else are looking at the US muckety-muck, and realize that each of them as individuals can elect a creep, by accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indirect Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Italy referendum: PM Matteo Renzi suffers heavy defeat, exit polls suggest http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38204189 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Thanks Uccmal, and as already posted by indirect: Good night, and sleep well - what ever your time zone may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The voting procedure is running right now in Italy. I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see. I see Austria stayed the course this weekend. Maybe, just maybe, voters everywhere else are looking at the US muckety-muck, and realize that each of them as individuals can elect a creep, by accident. Speaking of Italian creeps; did Trump & Berlusconi ever hang out togeather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Not sure, sailor of this board, So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws. - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what! I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The voting procedure is running right now in Italy. I'll stay up and look at TV about it till the bitter end at about 03 AM this night, my local time. I still have no clue what this will bring for tomorrows markets [,perhaps some cheap SAN ADRs in the afternoon]. We'll see. I see Austria stayed the course this weekend. Maybe, just maybe, voters everywhere else are looking at the US muckety-muck, and realize that each of them as individuals can elect a creep, by accident. Speaking of Italian creeps; did Trump & Berlusconi ever hang out togeather? Funny, whenever I look to a comparable recent leader to the States' new Jackass, I think of Berlusconi. Voters are so stupid sometimes. God give me the strength to ignore these embarassments to the human species. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Not sure, sailor of this board, So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws. - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what! I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!]. Isn't it like 5 am in Denmark? Cheers, Al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Not sure, sailor of this board, So far, I haven't read any info implying they are hole brother inlaws. - By the way, I think I really need to go bed now before this is escalading into something I don't know what! I mean: Does it matter? Are Italian banks cheap right now or not? [For me so far: Not!]. Isn't it like 5 am in Denmark? Cheers, Al At this point is easier to just stay up ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Remember you need to distinguish between the EU and the Euro. I'm not aware of an Italian party that wants to leave the EU. But the major parties that campaigned for no in this constitutional reform referendum - which therefore now have political momentum - do view the Euro unfavourably. And that's hardly surprising given that the economy is 8% smaller than 8 years ago. The Euro is having the same effect on the peripheral European states as the gold standard had in Depression America. It will be interesting to see how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 We are really clearing up cancer from our society or this Left thing and markets are in full agreement. Next on the agenda is Merkel. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 We are really clearing up cancer from our society or this Left thing and markets are in full agreement. Next on the agenda is Merkel. Cardboard Merkel is not going to survive another selection as a chancellor - the refuge disaster in Germany alone is enough reason for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 We are really clearing up cancer from our society or this Left thing and markets are in full agreement. Next on the agenda is Merkel. Cardboard Merkel is not going to survive another selection as a chancellor - the refuge disaster in Germany alone is enough reason for that. Inclined to agree. Euro 1.0 is a house of cards, but only worked so long as no-one called the bluff. But Brexit did exactly that though many tried to dismiss it as just an irrational act (denial). The Trump win has rubbed the underlying reasons in the face of Europe (millions of people not benefiting from progress), & proved it isn't isolated. The Italian rejection has now removed the excuse that this is just something that happened 'over there'. It is very hard to imagine that this underlying 'angst' does not exist in every country of the EU; it's just a matter of how many governments topple, & which ones. The normal state of affairs in Europe is warfare of some type, even today (ie: the baltic states). Flushing todays 'radicals' into the sterility of daylight is highly desirable; its a competitive space, and it forces change - which will happen whether we want it or not. Damming change up behind a wall just creates devastation when the dam eventually breaks. Europe has had two World Wars to prove it. To dam change you have to use fear - the change is so frightening we have to lock it up ... creating the threat. Calling the bluff (Trump) pops the bubble, & releases the water behind the dam. Interesting times SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 We are really clearing up cancer from our society or this Left thing and markets are in full agreement. Next on the agenda is Merkel. Cardboard Yeah right, If the populist movement for the worker's rights is clearing the "Left thing" then bring it on. Conservatism is in the dumps now. Open trade done. Immigration agenda gone. Defense will be cut. Infrastructure spending will go up. Trump ran to the left of Clinton and we are heading towards left from here my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Irish Times: Senior euro zone figures call for calm after Italian vote. Translates for me to : "Crisis? - What crisis? -It's just a "permanent situation - Italian style"". -To solve a problem one must first acknowledge its existence. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Merkel is not going to survive another selection as a chancellor - the refuge disaster in Germany alone is enough reason for that. I really hope you are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The popularity of Mrs. Merkel has got some dents lately, related to the European migration crisis. Edit: No worries, rb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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