roughlyright Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 today there was a big drop in Mongolia Mining company. More attractive price. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/mongolian-coal-miner-posts-losses-tough-market-conditions-offset-price-revival-20170323-00130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 today there was a big drop in Mongolia Mining company. More attractive price. http://www.nasdaq.com/article/mongolian-coal-miner-posts-losses-tough-market-conditions-offset-price-revival-20170323-00130 The equity is pretty risky. I bought the bonds at 52. Currently waiting for the debt swap. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roughlyright Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Muscleman, Why do you think the equity is risky? From what I gather from their website, they have already settled with 96% of the debt holders. From other members on VIC it seems that the remaining 4% will settle very soon. So all of bond holders are going to get equity of only 10% of the equity. All the equity holders have powerful positions in the current ruling party. Why do you think they will accept huge wipe out of the equity? I am trying to understand what makes this risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Muscleman, Why do you think the equity is risky? From what I gather from their website, they have already settled with 96% of the debt holders. From other members on VIC it seems that the remaining 4% will settle very soon. So all of bond holders are going to get equity of only 10% of the equity. All the equity holders have powerful positions in the current ruling party. Why do you think they will accept huge wipe out of the equity? I am trying to understand what makes this risky. Risk of dilution, coal price etc. Please see my spread sheet below. Equity's base case target is 0.5 cents, just 2x. Debt also 2x. So I bought the debt. Equity's bull case is much higher but I focus more on downside. https://1drv.ms/x/s!AkWFHc5rHvdjhUWH2YnNi8K9FCQA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Debt restructuring is supposed to be done by May 4th. Till now I have received neither the early consent fees (Which are due in January) nor the new perpetual notes+new senior notes+new shares. I am really upset with IB. >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Be careful with this one, investing in developing countries that lacks the rule of law usually ends in tears. Even if you are correct in the business economics. The early investors in Russia had to learn it the hard way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Be careful with this one, investing in developing countries that lacks the rule of law usually ends in tears. Even if you are writing in the business economics. The early investors in Russia had to learn it the hard way. Thank you for the advice. I found that I missed some forms that I was supposed to submit by April 5th. I thought sending in the early consent forms would be sufficient. Now I am stuck in a limbo state. >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
701 LV Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Any updates on this idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Any updates on this idea? http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2017-08-10_e_profit.pdf Huge swing to profitability. I'd assume the debt forgiveness gain is roughly 150M, so the rest would be gains in selling coals. We'll get more details soon. If my estimates are correct, this is trading at 1 P/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Be careful with this one, investing in developing countries that lacks the rule of law usually ends in tears. Even if you are correct in the business economics. The early investors in Russia had to learn it the hard way. I finally got the new bonds and stocks after months of talking to IB and the issuer's banker. IB has been extremely slow on every manual work. They are only good for automated electronic trading. Now I am stuck with these two bonds. IB kept telling me that they can't find any bids despite Stuttgart Exchange showing good bids each day, and the issuer's banker told me the bond is also actively trading in Hong Kong and she helped Goldman Sachs to buy a large amount recently. I am stuck here!!!! >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyow Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Honestly idk how you guys invest in these companies, most management teams in the US/Canada have little respect for stakeholders, even factoring in that these markets are the best in terms of internal controls/oversight/transparency, they still have to be watched like little kids. If it is true that goldman bought, at least you can assume there was some due diligence on their part, but who the hell knows. For all we know management is eating escargot with muscleman's funds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Be careful with this one, investing in developing countries that lacks the rule of law usually ends in tears. Even if you are correct in the business economics. The early investors in Russia had to learn it the hard way. I finally got the new bonds and stocks after months of talking to IB and the issuer's banker. IB has been extremely slow on every manual work. They are only good for automated electronic trading. Now I am stuck with these two bonds. IB kept telling me that they can't find any bids despite Stuttgart Exchange showing good bids each day, and the issuer's banker told me the bond is also actively trading in Hong Kong and she helped Goldman Sachs to buy a large amount recently. I am stuck here!!!! >:( Sounds like you need a better prime broker. I recalling Sanjeev advocating a good prime broker over all else a few years back. Maybe he will have some good recommendations. Good Luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Anyone looking at this? Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 No one cares about this? I finally got the bonds sold at very good prices after moving from IB to TD Ameritrade. It only took one phone call and one hour wait. In IB I waited for months without getting a bid. I am so pissed with IB that I am going to move all of my other positions to TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 No one cares about this? I finally got the bonds sold at very good prices after moving from IB to TD Ameritrade. It only took one phone call and one hour wait. In IB I waited for months without getting a bid. I am so pissed with IB that I am going to move all of my other positions to TD. Care to share your annualized return on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 No one cares about this? I finally got the bonds sold at very good prices after moving from IB to TD Ameritrade. It only took one phone call and one hour wait. In IB I waited for months without getting a bid. I am so pissed with IB that I am going to move all of my other positions to TD. Care to share your annualized return on this? About 50% for this one. Should have been much higher because I am supposed to get the new bonds in May but I forgot to file some paper work to agree with their restructuring deal, so I was horrified in May to find out that I was still holding the old bonds and I had to file paper work to get the new bonds and they won't give me the 2% incentive fees for voting yes because I missed the voting. Then I finally got the bonds in August, but IB is such a lousy broker that they spent months and told me that they could not find any bids for the bonds. I got scared that I may not be able to sell at all and got stuck with these bonds. I eventually found out that TD Ameritrade is able to sell these bonds, so I requested a transfer, which took months to happen. The bonds finally hit my account yesterday. I called TD, and in just one hour, they were sold. Great relief! You don't know how much pain I suffered. But in the end, my original analysis was correct. The bonds had lower risk and higher returns. Had people bought the stock instead, they'd be down 40% now. I had enough with IB that I am going to transfer everything to TD now to thank them for the bond trade. IB had non-existent order execution quality. I had accounts in Fido, IB and TD recently and place orders simultaneously. I always get the worst fill in IB. >:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awindenberger Posted March 28, 2018 Share Posted March 28, 2018 Its been a while since anyone discussed this stock here, and I just noticed the stock is trading at annual lows despite what seems to have been a reasonable 2017 result. http://www.mmc.mn/upload/2018-03-22_e_00975ann-20180322.pdf Anyone else here been paying any attention to this? I just came back across it and with the recapitalization having been completed and positive earnings in spite of continuing border crossing issues, seems like there is less risk today than a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 >80 MM shares traded, up > 35% news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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