Sunrider Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 If I read the final notice and offering prospective correctly jnj may choose to,simply delist actelion or carry out a scqueeze out. Presume former means no money for non tendered shares, latter does - worth talking a risk on this "post merger spread"? C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Yeah, I meant they could steadily put in a bid to buy shares. I bought quite a number of shares on Friday before I realized the tax implications and sold them on Monday and the price didn't move a ton. Interestingly, at 98% ownership, the squeeze out takes a different form that doesn't have the same tax implications, i.e. no withholding. If I were JNJ, I would do it, but I think big corporations are pretty lazy, probably have to loop in a few dozen lawyers to figure out if they can do this, etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I suspect JNJ might be doing this now, between yesterday and today, they are starting to make a real impact on the volume and price. The best idea probably would have been to just buy the non-tendered ATLN shares and let JNJ slowly take them from you. Alas, I did not do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 I suspect JNJ might be doing this now, between yesterday and today, they are starting to make a real impact on the volume and price. The best idea probably would have been to just buy the non-tendered ATLN shares and let JNJ slowly take them from you. Alas, I did not do that. If you believe that why not buy today? Still a large discount to deal value. Personally I think it is very unlikely JNJ is buying ADRs in the open market. Probably all sorts of regulatory issues with that and average daily value traded in ALIOY is like $3m per day which is ~.01% of deal value. Hardly a drop in the bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 I don't think they are buying the ADR's, I think they are buying ATLN, which is the non-tendered shares. I think the ADRs don't have a shot at being tendered because Citi isn't going to do it. The volume and value of ATLN is much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Idorsia is the name of the spinout company. Here is the latest webcast: https://www1.actelion.com/en/investors/events/investor-update.page? (This is only an update on drug candidates going forward for Idorsia.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 Tomorrow Idorsia starts trading and the cash component should settle. Have been looking a bit at the Idorsia prospectus, trying to peg a value onto it. Doesn't really look like my thing. Idorsia is burning cash like crazy and I have no clue about the value of their pipeline. There will be some forced selling tomorrow probably but I doubt it reaches levels where I'd be intrinsically interested in the spinoff. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooking Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 I've never bought a Spinoff 'off the bat' before, I've always given it a month or two for the price to settle, see who else buys it, and do a bit more research on the management etc. However, on this occasion I've been watching the situation for a while and would like to buy the shares in Idorsia as soon as they become available. Looking at my brokerage screen I can't search for it at the moment (presumably as it's not listed), so when can I expect to see it, will it just show up tomorrow morning? I'm based in the UK so would like to buy through my Degiro brokerage account and AJ Bell Youinvest Pension and ISA accounts. Will they be added immediately? I think the fact that the old founders are staying on within the new companies, and have a great track record, means this will be a great opportunity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 16, 2017 Author Share Posted June 16, 2017 Well, this merger turned out ok. Idorsia now trading at a market cap of ~1.5b CHF before further dilution by JNJ. Upper end of my (conservative) estimate. I bought some more Idorsia shortly after the opening - opening auction volume was ~2% of free float and I thought it was reasonably likely some holders were blindly dumping their shares. Bit of a gamble but that turned out very nice. Closed out half my position at 13.80 CHF, will keep the rest for a few days to see how things develop. I think it's quite possible it is worth more but I absolutely have no clue how to value their IP .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Yes, pretty amazing to get what was in hindsight an spread of approximately 8% on a merger like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 29, 2017 Author Share Posted June 29, 2017 Idorsia now up ~75% since listing a few days ago. Pretty amazing. CEO and his buddy have raised their stake from 15% to 23% in a few days. I sold all my shares last week. Maybe that was too early but I heard that that's the trait of a good value investor ... Anyway, no clue how to value this thing so I can't be too unhappy about my decision to sell. Congrats to those still holding on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 fascinating to be invested in a biotech stock, you can almost feel the animal spirits...... this is far from a value stock, but the field they are in has endless potential and the team has demonstrated to be capable in building a 30 billion business from scratch in no time never done this, but i plan to stick with this one for the long run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hielko Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Idorsia now up ~75% since listing a few days ago. Pretty amazing. CEO and his buddy have raised their stake from 15% to 23% in a few days. I sold all my shares last week. Maybe that was too early but I heard that that's the trait of a good value investor ... Anyway, no clue how to value this thing so I can't be too unhappy about my decision to sell. Congrats to those still holding on. I have a very small position as a result of the merger arb, and I decided to just hold it until there is a good reason to sell. I can't value this company either, but I do like the situation. Small spin-off that might be undervalued because former Actelion holders don't want it. CEO that has been very successful with Actelion now doing again what he loves doing. That's the kind of spin-off you should want to own, or at least not just sell it as soon as you get it. I don't want to be the guy that blindly sells to create an opportunity for someone else. Since I can't value it I'm not buying it either, but selling a spin-off (especially one with a good structure/background like this) just feels wrong to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Idorsia now up ~75% since listing a few days ago. Pretty amazing. CEO and his buddy have raised their stake from 15% to 23% in a few days. I sold all my shares last week. Maybe that was too early but I heard that that's the trait of a good value investor ... Anyway, no clue how to value this thing so I can't be too unhappy about my decision to sell. Congrats to those still holding on. Although press reports had it opening at 10, I believe it opened at 13 and change; was in available to you on a when issued basis (my broker did not have the when issued shares.) this is far from a value stock, but the field they are in has endless potential and the team has demonstrated to be capable in building a 30 billion business from scratch in no time You can cut value many ways. A proven, shareholder friendly operator at a reasonable valuation, i.e. money in the bank for development with a pipeline and a marketing partner is a value in my estimation. Honestly, this would count as a better 'value' than BRK when Buffett took over. (It won't be but prospectively it looks better. i.e. better looking prospects with a proven operator, which Buffett was not, he was 'only' a proven investor.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 29, 2017 Author Share Posted June 29, 2017 Although press reports had it opening at 10, I believe it opened at 13 and change; was in available to you on a when issued basis (my broker did not have the when issued shares.) This was not an IPO, no when-issued trading AFAIK. The opening auction was at 10. VWAP for the first 30 minutes of trading was 10.62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 netnet, I remember we talked about biotech spinoffs including Idorsia and how they are good places to invest. I looked at it the day it opened, no way to value, stock up 30%+, put in order around the bid/ask, it ran away, I said screw it, won't chase. I see the meta-thesis and it's likely you gonna make a bunch of money on this. But it's tough to buy without any valuation and no upcoming valuation for quite a while. And with a runup out of the gate. Yeah, I bought a tiny bit of KHTRF some time ago and still holding, but really it's tough. Good luck. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 netnet, I remember we talked about biotech spinoffs including Idorsia and how they are good places to invest. I looked at it the day it opened, no way to value, stock up 30%+, put in order around the bid/ask, it ran away, I said screw it, won't chase. I see the meta-thesis and it's likely you gonna make a bunch of money on this. But it's tough to buy without any valuation and no upcoming valuation for quite a while. And with a runup out of the gate. Yeah, I bought a tiny bit of KHTRF some time ago and still holding, but really it's tough. Good luck. 8) Thanks. Yes it is hard to value, but you have to make an educated guess on the pipeline, (good), operator(excellent, and proven) and, so as to overall value, this is hard but frankly I have seldom seen a insider buying into a spin (except John Malone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
netnet Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 My problem with this spinoff is that disciplined limit orders meant that I only got a small fraction of what I wanted before it got away, now up 2x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooking Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 I started buying in at 12CHF and I'm still buying up to 20CHF and every time it dips below 20CHF in order to build a large position. I feel that this is what Clozel has done / is doing and that this is a textbook Greenblatt spinoff opportunity. Large insider ownership, insider ownership increasing in number of people and in value, Actelion was one of the biggest companies on the Swiss stock index, meaning institutional investors who owned a 30bn pharma company likely won't want to or won't be able to own a 2bn R&D biotech company, this means forced / blind selling which keeps the price stable for buyers. Couple this with someone who turned a garage business with his wife into a 30bn concern, still has all his staff, and wants to do it all over again... I think this is the type of person we want to bet on and along with the drugs he has already in development, I'd venture as far as to suggest that this is what Buffett would call a moat. I view this as something with a long runway and a possible 10x / 10-bagger in a few years. I'll be comfortable holding up to 30% of my portfolio in this and hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 this means forced / blind selling which keeps the price stable for buyers. So nowadays 80% runup is called blind selling that keeps price stable. ::) :o Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted April 20, 2020 Share Posted April 20, 2020 ..... 3 years later.... looks like the r&d pipeline is about to deliver its first (post spin-off) blockbuster drug...... “While we designed daridorexant to have the optimal profile for a sleep medicine, I am none-the-less stunned by the results. Once approved, by providing daridorexant to the millions of patients with insomnia, Idorsia will have a major impact on this medical, social, and economic problem. It has struck me particularly in these times of confinement that we are living through, that sleep problems are a major issue and require an extremely safe and effective drug that can be used by the many. With these results Idorsia is entering into a new era; less than 3 years since its creation, Idorsia is taking a huge step forward in delivering on the vision to become a fully-fledged biopharmaceutical company.” https://www.idorsia.com/media/news-details?newsId=2284972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WayWardCloud Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Idorsia announced the success of phase 3 of their insomnia treatment, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/06/2057679/0/en/Idorsia-announces-positive-results-in-the-second-Phase-3-study-of-daridorexant.html As well as the establishment of a commercial US antenna, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/16/2063004/0/en/Idorsia-establishes-US-commercial-operations-and-leadership-team.html Yet, right at the same time, Cilag, Johnson and Johnson's Swiss arm, is letting go of their 8.3% share in IDIA, which I assume dates back from the original spin-off. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-johnson-johnson-idorsia/johnson-johnsons-cilag-to-sell-up-to-11-8-million-idorsia-shares-idUKKBN2492K4 They're probably the single best informed outsider of the company given their shared history so I wonder if they know something we don't ??? i wish I could add more information or my own take on this but I know pretty much nothing at all about biotechs. Very curious to hear what you guys make of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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