DTEJD1997 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Hey all: Anybody else looking at the bombed out retail sector? Obviously the industry is going through hard times, and there are going to be plenty of losers...but they can't all be losers? Can they? Some well known big companies are selling for single digit P/E's and yields of 5%+ I think some of them also have good balance sheets... I am looking around, but have not yet pulled the trigger. Anybody else looking? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Hey all: Anybody else looking at the bombed out retail sector? Obviously the industry is going through hard times, and there are going to be plenty of losers...but they can't all be losers? Can they? Some well known big companies are selling for single digit P/E's and yields of 5%+ I think some of them also have good balance sheets... I am looking around, but have not yet pulled the trigger. Anybody else looking? Thoughts? I've been watching it. Bought a token position today in LB and looking to start a position in UA. Got my eyes on a few others too, but also waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest 50centdollars Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I am looking at Nordstorm. I think they are a survivor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 DDS looks somewhat interesting. Owns lots of real estate, bought back 50% of shares the past six years, trades at low multiples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregS Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I've been watching DSW for some time. Inventory growth has outpaced revenue growth since 2014, but appears to be coming in line, so maybe gross margin will stabilize. Still opening new stores but that's slowing down too. Zero long term debt. However, I'm increasingly concerned online shoe shopping is improving, and DSW's purchase of Ebuys looks very defensive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I've been keeping an eye on it as well. LB looks interesting to me. Maybe UA and URBN. Note that not everything retail has been bombed. WMT is hanging in and TJX seems to be unaffected as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregS Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Hey all: Anybody else looking at the bombed out retail sector? Obviously the industry is going through hard times, and there are going to be plenty of losers...but they can't all be losers? Can they? Some well known big companies are selling for single digit P/E's and yields of 5%+ I think some of them also have good balance sheets... I am looking around, but have not yet pulled the trigger. Anybody else looking? Thoughts? Care to share any tickers? Other than DSW, LB and TGT are interesting to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I've been watching almost all of the tickers listed above as well as: TSE: HBC I haven't bought anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Just to clarify why I have purchased LB and nothing else so far: it's two fold. 1) Therapeutic to make up for missing it in 2008/2009 and 2) There appears to be long-term resistance at $40 which may help it from going too much lower in the short-term to medium-term. If it went below $40 with brand still intact, I would probably consider making it a much larger position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Perhaps one of the owners of LB shares could start an investment idea thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MarkS Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 I've been looking at GGP, KIM and sold some covered puts on SPG. Thanks Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricSchleien Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Recently bought some more Buckle (BKE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Berkshire owns Garanimal's & I own Carter's. I believe children's clothing is a better category than tween's, teens & adults (purchasers don't have to contend with whether or not the baby likes the outfit or not - except from a comfort standpoint.) ----- Pro's I like their e-commerce efforts & recently opened a GA warehouse in support of online (bent a knee to Amazon by making a presence in that channel just like all the other competitors in this space: Children's Place, Gymboree, Disney, Gap, Gerber, etc.) E-commerce had a 22% comp increase in Q4 2016 (Amazon initiative not yet started in this Q) Most of their sales are from Canada & the US. Sales/profits over the past decade continuously rising (no decreases even during the recession.) GM increased from 34% to 43% over the past decade. Nice FCF. Returns cash to shareholders with modest buybacks & dividends. Employs reasonable debt. ----- Con's Wholesale business is declining in the face of private label. Vibrant market in "hand me downs" Retail is a black hole... ----- Miscellaneous: Oshkosh brand has a lot of room to expand to catch up with Carter's brand. Newer, side by side (Carter's/Oshkosh) stores experiencing mid single digit comp increases. Partnered with Pou Sheng International (Holdings) Ltd., to open retail stores in China. (Pou Sheng manages more than 8,000 stores for international brands including Nike and Sketchers.) Plans on opening 40 outlets in China this year. Management understands that children's wear in China has generally weak brand awareness and that the market is fragmented due to high competition, making it challenging to stand out. Also has a presence on Alibaba but I'm not sure how much this channel contributes... Could turn out great or could be a disaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 I've been looking at L Brands, Bed Bath & Beyond as well as Gamestop. Even though they've been slaughtered I don't think they're necessarily cheap considering the challenges that they face. So far I only play retail indirectly via Seritage and Revlon (and perhaps Auto Nation if that qualifies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
undervalued Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregS Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. This sentiment is exactly why I'm looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. This sentiment is exactly why I'm looking. It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. This sentiment is exactly why I'm looking. It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do. Return policy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted April 5, 2017 Author Share Posted April 5, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. If you truly believe this, then what value would be left in the real estate? Are other retailers going to buy the empty stores? I would posit that only so many empty Sears & JCP stores can be reworked into non-retail space... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do. Return policy? I bought Xbox and I think one laptop on BestBuy online in last couple years. Prices were cheaper than Amazon. I haven't been in their store for 5 years I think. I do online comparison shop for bigger ticket items or if I suspect I can get a better deal outside Amazon. Re: retail - no plans to invest in the sector. We liked going to TJX and DSW, but haven't been there for a while now. We still buy clothes/shoes in TJX/DSW. Wife shops at URBN brands and Forever 21 (private) once in a while. I might have to go to Burlington Coat Factory next winterish to buy couple winter coats. Last time we went, store looked like Kmart--. :/ I wonder if NKE and/or UA will be great investments here. Barron's says yes. ;) Disclosure: We have a tiny bit of AMZN, a bit of TJX, and a tiny bit of URBN. Not a suggestion that any of these are buys/holds/whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. If you truly believe this, then what value would be left in the real estate? Are other retailers going to buy the empty stores? I would posit that only so many empty Sears & JCP stores can be reworked into non-retail space... They will all be used for Amazon fulfillment centers ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tradevestor Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do. Best Buy price matches all local retailers and major online retailers like Amazon, Newegg and TigerDirect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. If you truly believe this, then what value would be left in the real estate? Are other retailers going to buy the empty stores? I would posit that only so many empty Sears & JCP stores can be reworked into non-retail space... They will all be used for Amazon fulfillment centers ;D Brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tooskinneejs Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. If you truly believe this, then what value would be left in the real estate? Are other retailers going to buy the empty stores? I would posit that only so many empty Sears & JCP stores can be reworked into non-retail space... They will all be used for Amazon fulfillment centers ;D So people will buy things online and go pick them up at local stores? Sounds an awful lot like brick and mortar retail to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates. If you truly believe this, then what value would be left in the real estate? Are other retailers going to buy the empty stores? I would posit that only so many empty Sears & JCP stores can be reworked into non-retail space... They will all be used for Amazon fulfillment centers ;D So people will buy things online and go pick them up at local stores? Sounds an awful lot like brick and mortar retail to me. Uh... Amazon ships people the goods bought from their fulfillment centers. I was only joking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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