Spekulatius Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 How low could it drop? There must be a floor. Funny now that they are on sale there isn't a lot of people asking which ones to buy now here lately. I bought more Bitcoin yesterday. Not to argue that merits of technical analysis, but you might want look at a BTC chart. Alternatively, build your own if you also want RSI and moving averages. SD Technical analysis on a value investing board? Mayorly undervalued is mayorly undervalued. Just mindful that the current price is below the last trough low (Feb-05) of USD 6,914. For those who belive in the voodoo science, this supposedly means that at the curent price of USD 6,611 it could drop quick a bit until it 'finds' a new level. And given that there really isn't any agreed fundamental value approach applicable to Bitcoin - tossing bones may well be as good as it gets! No opinion as to whether it is under or overvalued. ;D SD What would exactly provide a floor? Technical analysis would suggest much lower, maybe $800-900. Intrinsic is exactly what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Purely speculation. Looking forward today, 6-9 months out; it's pretty hard to see how the US doesn't end up in a trade war with somebody. It's also hard to see how some accident that significantly raises oil prices - does not occurr, somewhere in the world. Hard to see how the market overall would not decline were this to occurr. It's unlikely that Bitcoin would have gone to 20K/token - were huge amounts of money not freely and widely available. Should the sh1te hit the fan, and money become less available - who is going to be buying Bitcoin? And if you held Bitcoin - wouldn't you be inclined to start selling (raising supply), as you saw the above starting to occurr? So at what price does standing in the blood become interesting? Maybe 50-70% off the current price. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shalab Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Good point, what is the intrinsic value of a hash function like this? 000000000000000....adfcg...fe46518541f4739613b9ce29ecea6b6 I can generate one for you using "shalab" algorithm if you wish very cheaply. It seems tulip bulbs may have had more utility than these digital hashes. How low could it drop? There must be a floor. Funny now that they are on sale there isn't a lot of people asking which ones to buy now here lately. I bought more Bitcoin yesterday. Not to argue that merits of technical analysis, but you might want look at a BTC chart. Alternatively, build your own if you also want RSI and moving averages. SD Technical analysis on a value investing board? Mayorly undervalued is mayorly undervalued. Just mindful that the current price is below the last trough low (Feb-05) of USD 6,914. For those who belive in the voodoo science, this supposedly means that at the curent price of USD 6,611 it could drop quick a bit until it 'finds' a new level. And given that there really isn't any agreed fundamental value approach applicable to Bitcoin - tossing bones may well be as good as it gets! No opinion as to whether it is under or overvalued. ;D SD What would exactly provide a floor? Technical analysis would suggest much lower, maybe $800-900. Intrinsic is exactly what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Here is an attempt to determine the value based on a regression with the number or users. Makes sense to me and may or may not be better than SD’s chicken bones. The valuation approach in this article indicates a substantial overvaluation , but not by 10x or more. https://quantpedia.com/Blog/Details/what-is-bitcoins-fair-value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2018/04/09/reddit-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-hodl-stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Why is Etherneum doing better than Bitcoin? or means nothing? The latter. Ethereum is at least 100 times overvalued (and 99% of the alts are worth nothing st all) so it's all 1 giant crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 The latter. Ethereum is at least 100 times overvalued (and 99% of the alts are worth nothing st all) so it's all 1 giant crapshoot. Already posted by wachtwoord as a reply to your question, emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Casey Research says bitcoin is headed to zero on July 21st due to a secret meeting between various governments where they will decide to launch their own cryptocurrency. Anyone has an opinion? Opinion: LOL and I am certainly not bullish on crypto currencies. I wouldn’t even know how to argue why governements starting their own crypto currency/s would be bearish of bitcoin and al, in fact if anything, I would consider it being bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wachtwoord Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 Casey Research says bitcoin is headed to zero on July 21st due to a secret meeting between various governments where they will decide to launch their own cryptocurrency. Anyone has an opinion? Opinion: LOL and I am certainly not bullish on crypto currencies. I wouldn’t even know how to argue why governements starting their own crypto currency/s would be bearish of bitcoin and al, in fact if anything, I would consider it being bullish. Government crypto is pointless as the value comes from the distribution of trust rather than the centralization of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 Casey Research says bitcoin is headed to zero on July 21st due to a secret meeting between various governments where they will decide to launch their own cryptocurrency. Anyone has an opinion? Government crypto (CBDC) is just digital, versus physical, fiat currency. Where you have an economic trading block, it does make sense to have an internal CBDC for that trading block; but it's not going to take bitcoin to zero. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyPuppy Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Breakeven cost of mining is largely irrelevant to the actual value of bitcoin, as the difficulty to mine dynamically adjusts to the number of miners. Said another way, if the # of miners went down dramatically -> the ease of mining would adjust proportionally. Listen to podcast #3 if you're interested in more - http://horizonkinetics.com/podcast-type/consensus-money/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 WSJ this morning says that SEC is considering Etherenium as a security and its issuance may have been illegal. May 7th is the meeting. Any opinion? Wasn't the point of cryptocurrencies was to keep government and banks involvement to none? There is a pretty good understanding of what is/is not 'OK' in Canada - whether the legal communiuty likes it or not. If the coin or token is for 'internal' use only (ETH) it's not a security - & therefore 'OK' If the coin or token is just a 'crowd-funding' token (most custom ERC20 token) - it is not a security - & therefore 'OK' If the coin or token is just replacing a share or bond certificate (paper or book-based) - it is not a security - & therefore 'OK' If you create a crypto exchange to buy/sell various crypto - you are an unlicensed exchange - & offside. The only exception is if you are the market maker for your own 'internal' currency; & exchange at a fixed exchange rate. If the intent of your 'crowd-funding' token is that it is a subsitute for common shares - you have issued a security illegally - & are offside. It is not the issuers problem if the token buyer bought the token in expectation of a later sale at a higher price (speculation is not illegal). The expectation (not a requirement) is that the issuer adequately disclosed the nature of the crowd funding token at the time it was sold (white paper/selling process combination). 'Adequate', is open to interpretation. You are supposed to use the crowd funded proceeds to do what you promised; but if you lose it through incompetence, or bankrupt through really bad management - it's just everyday start-up business risk. Whether you bankrupted the start-up by making all the company cars Ferraris, & throwing extravagent parties, or not - & it is this kind of behaviour that the WSJ is alluding to. Irresponsible, but not illegal. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyPuppy Posted May 5, 2018 Share Posted May 5, 2018 Has anyone following the space closely identified a reasonably easy way to invest in companies working on custody solutions? I'm not aware of any public companies but haven't looked very hard. Will report back if I find anything as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Almost all altcoin and token is very difficult to short. There are people willing to lend token (criminal element), but its reputationally risky, an expensive carry, & on an on-demand basis only. Far simpler to either sell existing & buy-back lower, or avoid it entirely - hence the shorting comment. It is well known that without the discipline of short-selling, share prices artifically inflate as the bull case feeds upon itself. And as there are no valuation metrics, there is material information assymetry, and distorted supply/demand - there is little price support when the industry sells off. The result is volatility, and a systemic downward bias as fresh demand becomes increasingly hard to find - hence the 'glad to short' comment. Some think the price support collapses this year (90% fall thread) Of course Bitcoin (as the only crypto with an investable option and future market) is the exception. However, given its attractiveness to the criminal element, WEB can't exactly be seen recommending it. It is highly unlikely that WEB has a 'blind spot' around BTC. The blush is coming off the crypto currency rose, but it's still way too early to predict outcome. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 rkbabang, you said that GBTC is not worth as it is selling at 30% premium. I am thinking. If I bought GBTC at $130 (BTC worth $100). Assume, BTC rises 5 fold to $500, so does GBTC rises 5 fold to $650.00. I make $520 net by selling GBTC versus $400 selling bitcoin. Is GBTC not better? I must be wrong in my assumptions somewhere? Per your example, they both go up 500% - so you would be indifferent. But you would actually go with BTC as 1) less capital is risked to get the 500% return, & 2) there is no risk to a changing premium. What you really want is a cryptofund invested in primarily OTHER than BTC, that will give you non-recourse margin against the units purchased. Keep taking $ off the table through your hold period, & simply walk away if/when the unit/fund implodes under market volatility. The most you can lose is your iniitial equity MINUS whatever you have cummulatively taken off the table. Same trick that was used on inflated mortgages/house prices - going into the GR2 ;) It just needs a foolish banker, & crypto has a lot of them. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 What other cryptofunds are there besides GBTC for retirement funds? Do a google search on cryptocurrency funds. Read up on what non-recourse means. For this purpose non-recourse is a free put option on the unit - with proceeds equal to the margin borrowed. So continually sell the rips, buy the dips, and withdraw capital from both fund and broker. Continually test withdrawal ability, liquidate immediately and withdraw everything as soon as there is resistance. If it blows up, simply walk-away. It will not make you friends, so expect resistance. Brokers/HF's are supposed to make the money, not the client. https://next.autonomous.com/cryptofundlist/ https://www.investitin.com/crypto-fund-list/ SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-initial-coin-offerings-welcome-to-a-world-of-charlatans-and-frauds/ Written by Nouriel Roubini "Thus it is little wonder that, according to the ICO advisory firm Satis Group, 81 per cent of ICOs are scams created by con artists, charlatans and swindlers looking to take your money and run. It is also little wonder that only 8 per cent of cryptocurrencies end up being traded on an exchange, meaning that 92 per cent of them fail." "Hence, most ICOs deny investors any legal rights whatsoever. They are generally accompanied by vaporous “white papers” instead of concrete business plans. Their issuers are often anonymous and untraceable. And they skirt all AML regulations, leaving the door open to any criminal investor" "Jay Clayton, the chairman of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, recently made it clear that he regards all cryptocurrencies as securities, with the exception of the first mover, Bitcoin, which he considers a commodity. The implication is that even Ethereum and Ripple – the second- and third-largest cryptoassets – are currently operating as unregistered securities. Gary Gensler, a former chairman of the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission who now teaches a course on blockchain (the technology underlying cryptocurrencies) at MIT, has also suggested as much." The 92% failure inference is a little unfair; as ICO's are primarily issued by start-ups - and 92-95% of blockchain start-ups bankrupt within their first year. The take-away here is that even if there is a grandfathered solution, the prices of Ether and Ripple are highly likely to fall like a brick in the coming crackdown. Obviously, the investable solution is BTC futures and options. As at time of writing ETC is trading at USD 675.79, and XRP is trading at USD 0.692 SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 22, 2018 Author Share Posted May 22, 2018 Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day everyone! Bitcoin Pizza Day 2018: Community Celebrates a Takeout Order Now Worth $82 mln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 It would be very naive to believe that widespread manipulation does not exist in both the crypto-currency markets and the ICO space. In many places, it is the main reason why a back-street exchange is created. As there are very few legal penalties, it is an entirely rational and profitable thing to do. Attend any Blockchain/AI conference, and the level of audience anti-government, anti-regulatory stance is obvious. DL is the solution! they're trying to take it away from us! don't let them! Not a lot different to a US pro-gun rally, and many of the same tactics. Drown out the longer term requirements of corporate social responsibility, and you can continue with the short-term profit manipulation. Money is oxygen, starve the flow and the target suffocates. Bitcoin, as the only crypto with a recognized option and future market, is the only crypto that is institutionally 'investable'. Probes, concerns, etc. oblige the majority of institutional money in the space to stick to Bitcoin, diverting money away from the other crypto, starving flow and lowering prices. US KYC is moving to the BitLicence outlines of 23 CRR-NY 200 15(h). Identification and verification of account holders, and enhanced DD if you are trading crypto. Cant trade virtual currency with a foreign entity that does not have a physical presence in any country. Its getting harder to trade annonymously, corroding the annonymity of cryptocoin, and harder to divert institutional flow away from regulated channels - further starving capital flow. Currently, it's hard to put up Bitcoin as loan collateral. Play ball, and rules could be changed, lowering cost and greatly expanding the Bitcoin market space - at the expense of oher crypto. Particularly back-street market crypto. .... And all the time the various laws around the world are catching up, and cross-referencing against each other. Shrinking the legal vacumn. Hard to be sympathetic. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 https://qz.com/1287701/bitcoin-golds-51-attack-is-every-cryptocurrencys-nightmare-scenario/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted May 31, 2018 Author Share Posted May 31, 2018 Which one of you need help? https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/28/scottish-hospital-launches-treatment-for-bitcoin-trading-addicts/ I wonder if they accept Bitcoin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libs Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 I laughed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 Gotta get rid of the crypto stuff, if you can’t trade it anymore. In that sense, it makes sense to pay for treatment, with the caveat, that the hospital staff may get infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted May 31, 2018 Share Posted May 31, 2018 First step of treatment: give the hospital all your cryptocoins. ... Profit! (for hospital) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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