SnarkyPuppy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 20 years from now, people will scavenge for encrypted hardwares that contain BTC private keys... just like deep sea treasure hunting :-) 20 years from now BTC security will be long since broken by quantum computing. Are you not similarly worried about your bank account or brokerage account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pau_ Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 That is a bit of BS, if could setup a mirror of the drive and try again and again. Painfully long but for 240M I'm sure he could even give it to a firm that would do it for him. That is especially true if the password is somewhat short 12 characters of less. BeerBaron My guess is that this cannot be done non-destructively with the IronKey drive or he would have done this already. I personally wouldn't start desoldering connections on an SSD that contains the private key to a fortune. So the best bet is to wait for someone to discover a firmware vulnerability in the device that lets him bypass the attempt counter, or to have an epiphany. This story reminds me of a story in WIRED where a guy tries everything to recover 7.4 bitcoin locked on a purpose-made hardware wallet with an escalating pin-entry delay function (practically the same as a limit). https://www.wired.com/story/i-forgot-my-pin-an-epic-tale-of-losing-dollar30000-in-bitcoin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pau_ Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 20 years from now, people will scavenge for encrypted hardwares that contain BTC private keys... just like deep sea treasure hunting :-) 20 years from now BTC security will be long since broken by quantum computing. Are you not similarly worried about your bank account or brokerage account? Quantum computing is a threat to encryption because currently many forms of encryption rely on the fact that it's fast for a computer to multiple two very large numbers together but not fast to factor large numbers. There is an algorithm that runs on quantum computers called Shor's algorithm for factoring numbers much faster. There's a whole lot of work (Post-quantum cryptography) on finding and implementing encryption that doesn't rely on factoring and therefore isn't vulnerable to fast factoring by quantum computers. Google is already shipping and running post-quantum encryption in Chrome for a percentage of requests. https://security.googleblog.com/2016/07/experimenting-with-post-quantum.html As for bitcoin I imagine there are plans to upgrade to prevent quantum computing attacks (via a fork maybe?), but I don't really follow bitcoin closely so I don't know what the proposals are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewbieD Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 https://www2.deloitte.com/nl/nl/pages/innovatie/artikelen/quantum-computers-and-the-bitcoin-blockchain.html It seems there already keys believed to be resilient to early quantum computers. All these old lost keys probably not though. Tick tack.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brett Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Does anyone have access to HC Wainwright's research on RIOT that they could share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Went back some pages, but did not find anything about the theory that Tether printed without USD backing are being used to manipulate the price of BTC up. There may be something, however, as this was already being discussed out there a few months ago. In any case, if this is true, and regulation was to stop the proliferation of tether (and/or similar stable coins), the price of bitcoin could be negatively impacted, so the argument goes. What do you make of it? https://medium.com/texas-mccombs/tether-connection-puts-bitcoin-at-risk-a6d332784f98 https://coingeek.com/tether-printing-presses-in-overdrive-as-regulators-watch-closely/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Went back some pages, but did not find anything about the theory that Tether printed without USD backing are being used to manipulate the price of BTC up. There may be something, however, as this was already being discussed out there a few months ago. In any case, if this is true, and regulation was to stop the proliferation of tether (and/or similar stable coins), the price of bitcoin could be negatively impacted, so the argument goes. What do you make of it? https://medium.com/texas-mccombs/tether-connection-puts-bitcoin-at-risk-a6d332784f98 https://coingeek.com/tether-printing-presses-in-overdrive-as-regulators-watch-closely/ If true, it is a short-term negative due to the elimination of artificial demand; however, it doesn't really change the valuation models that predict valuations for BTC. Will just remove some of the upside volatility/overshoots of those targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 rayscale, the world’s largest digital currency manager, said on Thursday its assets under management surged more than 900% to $20.2 billion at the end of last year, lifted by record inflows in the fourth quarter and the surge in the price of bitcoin. The cryptocurrency manager started 2020 overseeing $2 billion in assets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-crypto-currencies-grayscale/bitcoin-surge-helps-lift-grayscale-assets-to-record-20-billion-in-2020-idUSKBN29J2QL What are their expense ratios again like 2-3%? Nice juicy AUM fees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fly Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Went back some pages, but did not find anything about the theory that Tether printed without USD backing are being used to manipulate the price of BTC up. There may be something, however, as this was already being discussed out there a few months ago. In any case, if this is true, and regulation was to stop the proliferation of tether (and/or similar stable coins), the price of bitcoin could be negatively impacted, so the argument goes. What do you make of it? https://medium.com/texas-mccombs/tether-connection-puts-bitcoin-at-risk-a6d332784f98 https://coingeek.com/tether-printing-presses-in-overdrive-as-regulators-watch-closely/ If you owned a big pile of USDT and Tether corporation was shut down tomorrow what would you do with your USDT? Probably trade it for the most liquid asset ASAP. BTC/USDT pairings would skyrocket and would likely cause a short term burst in BTC/USD pairs as well, then decouple and see a normal BTC/USD with USDT turning into just another shitcoin. Most reputable exchanges dont even use USDT any longer, and it is only the shady places that use it for wash trading: https://www.viewbase.com/coin/tether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Not sure if folks had read this. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Not sure if folks had read this. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3 I don't think this is new info. Tether was the big concern in 2018 too. It doesn't change my long term opinion of BTC, although it could create a good buying opportunity if it crashes the crypto markets. Anyone know if there is a good way to short USDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pondside47 Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Not sure if folks had read this. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3 None of the fund flow charts shows RMB inflow. It's hard to imagine Chinese sitting out on this casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fly Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Not sure if folks had read this. https://crypto-anonymous-2021.medium.com/the-bit-short-inside-cryptos-doomsday-machine-f8dcf78a64d3 I don't think this is new info. Tether was the big concern in 2018 too. It doesn't change my long term opinion of BTC, although it could create a good buying opportunity if it crashes the crypto markets. Anyone know if there is a good way to short USDT? Good? No, but Kraken has a USDT/USD pair with 2x leverage. I think this Tether stuff is way overblown. Yes, they are corrupt and will likely get shutdown but it won't be some big black swan event where BTC drops massively. Hell, we've been hearing this Tether story for years now. Nobody should be surprised when it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The Tethers of the world exist because their client base 1) cannot stand the scrutiny of regulation, and 2) much of the client base is investment ignorant. When the client base prefers to NOT comply with standard KYC restrictions, it's not a good sign. At some point the Tethers will implode, probably with a little 'help' from the light side. Similarly much of the stable coin market will as well, when sponsors can no longer meet their margin calls - and their sh1te coin collateral is sold off en-mass. When? is anybody's guess, but it is a reasonable expectation. Why stable coin? the mechanics are very similar to a CDO^2. Last time around, a number of prominent I-Banks found out that liquidity is a bitch - when it suddenly evaporates :) It does not mean that BTC collapses, but it does mean that the derivative players make a great deal of money on the way down, and proven global establishment of 'crypto' as an investment 'asset class'. The wheel rolls, the 'dark side' gets shaken out, and BTC remains alive and well. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Pitch Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin. The Tethers of the world exist because their client base 1) cannot stand the scrutiny of regulation, and 2) much of the client base is investment ignorant. When the client base prefers to NOT comply with standard KYC restrictions, it's not a good sign. At some point the Tethers will implode, probably with a little 'help' from the light side. Similarly much of the stable coin market will as well, when sponsors can no longer meet their margin calls - and their sh1te coin collateral is sold off en-mass. When? is anybody's guess, but it is a reasonable expectation. Why stable coin? the mechanics are very similar to a CDO^2. Last time around, a number of prominent I-Banks found out that liquidity is a bitch - when it suddenly evaporates :) It does not mean that BTC collapses, but it does mean that the derivative players make a great deal of money on the way down, and proven global establishment of 'crypto' as an investment 'asset class'. The wheel rolls, the 'dark side' gets shaken out, and BTC remains alive and well. SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fly Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin. I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Pitch Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Too early to tell, but the most legit project at the moment is ESD. Incentives are being modified for a v2 to come out soon. No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin. I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fly Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Too early to tell, but the most legit project at the moment is ESD. Incentives are being modified for a v2 to come out soon. No one will care about Tethers or any stable coin when the market finally decides to back an algorithmic stable coin. I do think this is the future, but have just glanced briefly at the algo stablecoins. Any recs for leaders so far? Yes, ESDv2 and Frax were two I had been most interested in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elliott Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 are Polkadot, Chainlink, Cardano... competitors of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, or just of Ethereum? I ask because these coins are often said to have the same, or more, features than Ethereum, but with better technology, while Bitcoin is already accepted to have less features than even Ethereum. of course, this doesnt make them friends of Bitcoin, but, at least to my eyes, does make Ethereum their main rival. those points are arguable, and many will say even totally wrong. I am not asking about whether they are true or not, I just mention them as point of departure, because I think they represent a very widely held view. if you dont agree with that, though, please say so. discussing about what we speculate most people think may also prove useful. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 are Polkadot, Chainlink, Cardano... competitors of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, or just of Ethereum? I ask because these coins are often said to have the same, or more, features than Ethereum, but with better technology, while Bitcoin is already accepted to have less features than even Ethereum. of course, this doesnt make them friends of Bitcoin, but, at least to my eyes, does make Ethereum their main rival. those points are arguable, and many will say even totally wrong. I am not asking about whether they are true or not, I just mention them as point of departure, because I think they represent a very widely held view. if you dont agree with that, though, please say so. discussing about what we speculate most people think may also prove useful. thanks. I think of those as more similar to Ethereum than Bitcoin, as you said. I think we will see Bitcoin as an institutional store of value where Ethereum, et al, will be used for all kinds of things, but value will come in to be used then go back out to be stored. I think there is room for more than one Turing complete blockchain, they will compete on functionality, stability, ease of use, etc. Ethereum will likely be one of the winners just because of first mover advantage, a large userbase, and being good enough for most applications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The premium on GBTC surpassed 35% early this morning. 30-35% has signalled short-term tops in sentiment in recent months, but that doesn't mean it couldn't go higher in a frenzy like 2017 OR that you'd lose money buying it today if BTC keeps on keeping on. Just the first indicator I watch for overly bullish sentiment. I noted back around ~18k that even after the 80% rally we'd seen, that its NAV was still within reasonable bounds of recent history and not bubbly - now we're getting there. Mayer multiple is 1.88 (multiple to 200 day moving average). 2.4 is the typical sell signal in a euphoric rise - though it has gone much higher (like 3x+ in 2017) before they bust. Keeping in mind that the 200 day moving average is rising every day, 2.4x sell signal will likely be triggered around ~30-35k if it happens in the next 2-3 months. It's better for all of us if it takes its sweet time in getting there though - makes the stock to flow forecast of 100k by the end of 2021 a more reasonable topping point if the 200 DMA is given time to rise to 25-30k instead of trying to make it there when its currently at 12k. Happy trading all This post was made when BTC was around 23k. Obvioulsy BTC topped out at 41k following GBTC premium exploding to 40% (sell signal above 25%) and the Mayer multiple topping at 2.9x (sell signal @ 2.4x). Obviously this went significantly higher than the "reasonable" top by these technical indicators, but basically pointed to late December being the time to sell. Now? GBTC premium is single digits (buy signal) and Mayer multiple is back to being 1.8x where it was when I posted on December 17th. First time it's been below 2x since that time as well. Obviously, BTC can undershoot to the downside like it overshot to the upside, but this is probably the first time since mid-December where the technicals start supporting accumulating again. Particularly if you believe that this is just a pit-stop on the way to a larger rally like we saw happen multiple times in 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Has anyone bought GBTC in IRA? How sure are you that GBTC is legal in IRA and does not have unexpected tax consequences? (E.g. things like MLPs can screw you in IRA). I know that Fido asks for additional agreement before they allow you to buy GBTC. I believe that GBTC sucks in taxable account although I don't remember exact details. Anyway, does anyone has a strong handle of tax implications of GBTC in IRA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Has anyone bought GBTC in IRA? How sure are you that GBTC is legal in IRA and does not have unexpected tax consequences? (E.g. things like MLPs can screw you in IRA). I know that Fido asks for additional agreement before they allow you to buy GBTC. I believe that GBTC sucks in taxable account although I don't remember exact details. Anyway, does anyone has a strong handle of tax implications of GBTC in IRA? I own GBTC in an IRA at Schwab and didn't have to sign any additional agreements. Given that GBTC doesn't have any distributions associated with it, I don't think you'll encounter similar taxable issues as owning MLPs in an IRA. It's my understanding it's just a publicly traded trust more akin to REITs than ETFs/stocks/MLPs/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Has anyone bought GBTC in IRA? How sure are you that GBTC is legal in IRA and does not have unexpected tax consequences? (E.g. things like MLPs can screw you in IRA). I know that Fido asks for additional agreement before they allow you to buy GBTC. I believe that GBTC sucks in taxable account although I don't remember exact details. Anyway, does anyone has a strong handle of tax implications of GBTC in IRA? I own GBTC in an IRA at Schwab and didn't have to sign any additional agreements. Given that GBTC doesn't have any distributions associated with it, I don't think you'll encounter similar taxable issues as owning MLPs in an IRA. It's my understanding it's just a publicly traded trust more akin to REITs than ETFs/stocks/MLPs/etc. I believe your understanding is only partially correct. You are right that GBTC has no income, so currently it has minimal tax implications. However, it is not akin to REITs - it is a grantor trust and its income/expenses flow through to shareholders. So if it had income, you would have to pay tax on it. Whether that would mean K1 or some other IRS form and whether it would have tax implications for IRA, I am not fully sure. In that sense it is way closer to a partnership than to REIT. Maybe this question is academic since it does not have income currently (and foreseeably). https://grayscale.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-BTC-2019-Tax-Information_Final.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Has anyone bought GBTC in IRA? How sure are you that GBTC is legal in IRA and does not have unexpected tax consequences? (E.g. things like MLPs can screw you in IRA). I know that Fido asks for additional agreement before they allow you to buy GBTC. I believe that GBTC sucks in taxable account although I don't remember exact details. Anyway, does anyone has a strong handle of tax implications of GBTC in IRA? I own GBTC in an IRA at Schwab and didn't have to sign any additional agreements. Given that GBTC doesn't have any distributions associated with it, I don't think you'll encounter similar taxable issues as owning MLPs in an IRA. It's my understanding it's just a publicly traded trust more akin to REITs than ETFs/stocks/MLPs/etc. I believe your understanding is only partially correct. You are right that GBTC has no income, so currently it has minimal tax implications. However, it is not akin to REITs - it is a grantor trust and its income/expenses flow through to shareholders. So if it had income, you would have to pay tax on it. Whether that would mean K1 or some other IRS form and whether it would have tax implications for IRA, I am not fully sure. In that sense it is way closer to a partnership than to REIT. Maybe this question is academic since it does not have income currently (and foreseeably). https://grayscale.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Grayscale-Bitcoin-Trust-BTC-2019-Tax-Information_Final.pdf Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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