Cryptocurrencies

[Castanza]

How much do you own?  ;)

 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

 

“Most of my coins”

 

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

[rkbabang]

How much do you own?  ;)

 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

 

“Most of my coins”

 

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

 

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

[ValueArb]

How much do you own?  ;)

 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

 

“Most of my coins”

 

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

 

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

 

LOL I sold at $250 while simultaneously telling my friend that BTC had an innate value as a medium of exchange, especially in places like Venezuela, but as a value investor I couldn't calculate it so I wouldn't hold it. If I had only followed through building that mental model it would have been clear that world-wide the need for cryptocurrency in a $100T+ economy was a lot more than $500M. 

 

I mean even today I think that $1T isn't absurd, if it was $100B I'd probably get right back in. Which I could have not that many months ago.

[ValueArb]

 

Market volume across the six largest exchanges is $50 to $70B a day. There is probably more on the OTC but that is unknown. Lets go with the lower end and say you wanted your selling pressure to be less than 0.1% of the daily volume to avoid disruptions. That would mean you could probably unload in the ballpark of $50M worth a day and that is being super conservative. As a point of comparison Tesla acquired $1.5B worth of Bitcoins in about a month without rocking the boat which would be about $50M a day.

 

At that rate you could convert $18.3B a year so about 3 years to unload it all. Of course you aren't going to do that anonymously also if any of those early addresses moved it would cause a massive disruption as they are watched and have been dormant for a decade now.

 

That being said I am pretty sure "Satoshi" (who may actually be a team of people not an individual) intentionally destroyed those early keys, died taking the keys with him/them, or lost the keys due to some technical issue and/or negligence.

 

It isn't that most of satoshi's coins are dormant, none of them have moved in over a decade. He did move some (giveaways to anyone who asked) in the first two years but that stopped over a decade ago. Due to a privacy leaking flaw in how the extra-nonce was handled in the earliest bitcoin client we have solid evidence of which blocks were mined by satoshi even after other people started mining and literally none of the coins for those blocks have moved in over a decade. $50B worth of wealth and satoshi had a need to sell/trade/spend even 0.001% of that on anything in over a decade? Nobody can definitively prove it but I believe those keys to access those early coins are gone.

 

 

Interesting post on ArsTechnica BTC hits $1T story comments. “Satoshi Nakamoto” Has 1M Bitcoin .

[ValueArb]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

[rkbabang]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

 

He obviously wants to buy more

[Simba]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

 

Didn’t Elon Musk say Tesla price was too high at one point too?

[adesigar]

How much do you own?  ;)

 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

 

“Most of my coins”

 

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

 

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

 

At least you did buy some. I saw it when it was around $10 but didn’t buy any because new kid, death in the family etc. It was a crazy time. I almost bought $5k worth at that time but didn’t. I probably wouldn’t have held to $50k per Bitcoin anyways.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

 

Didn’t Elon Musk say Tesla price was too high at one point too?

 

Yes. Back in like May 2020 when the price was like 1/5 of what it is today. BTC to the

[SharperDingaan]

Not to rub it in ... but then there's the Pat Ryan & the Rocky Mountain Band, 'Bitcoin Song'.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-norton-ext_onb&ei=UTF-8&hsimp=yhs-ext_onb&hspart=norton&param1=715c1b21-f757-45b3-abef-000b5658630d_2019-07-29_cr&param2=ds_direct_ignite&param3=ngc_22.17.3.50_wk31_2019&param4=35170&p=bitcoin+song&type=cr_ds_ignite_wk31_2019#id=1&vid=85236c3ee4f4fac2b6ecdaa6064ab664&action=click

 

$400 worth at a dime = 4,000 BTC

Today, USD 220M - at USD 55K/BTC. Holy macaroni .... I AM rich!

 

Alternatively .. you can just be part of the HODL gang! - reminding yourself that 32% of young people prefer buying BTC, to stocks.

https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-norton-ext_onb&ei=UTF-8&hsimp=yhs-ext_onb&hspart=norton&param1=715c1b21-f757-45b3-abef-000b5658630d_2019-07-29_cr&param2=ds_direct_ignite&param3=ngc_22.17.3.50_wk31_2019&param4=35170&p=bitcoin+song&type=cr_ds_ignite_wk31_2019&_guc_consent_skip=1613916797#id=13&vid=e4f77d83cf371b4cf42efe5d0fa8c093&action=view

 

And we now have a BTC ETF fund just for you!

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-worlds-first-bitcoin-etf-begins-trading-on-tsx/

 

SD

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

How much do you own?  ;)

 

He's a billionaire, clearly.

 

“Most of my coins”

 

Implying at least three. If so congrats rk

 

Yes more than three, but much less than a billion dollars worth.  I was buying at $200-$500 and not buying more than I did is by far the biggest mistake of my life.

 

At least you did buy some. I saw it when it was around $10 but didn’t buy any because new kid, death in the family etc. It was a crazy time. I almost bought $5k worth at that time but didn’t. I probably wouldn’t have held to $50k per Bitcoin anyways.

 

Thats why you shouldn't sweat missed trades like this. I kick myself for not buying at $250, but I'm almost certain I would have sold at $1,000. So I missed a nice trade, not a life changing money (as if money can ever change life).

[SharperDingaan]

For those still seeking a 'modern day' explanation of de-fi, might I highly recommend  Hamilton vs Satoshi  ;D

Change isn't coming anymore, it's here !!!

 

 

SD

 

 

[widenthemoat]

For those still seeking a 'modern day' explanation of de-fi, might I highly recommend  Hamilton vs Satoshi  ;D

Change isn't coming anymore, it's here !!!

 

 

SD

 

This was pretty good ;D Gave me a good laugh and was actually quite catchy. Does anyone else find it ironic that during a period of intense government control and essentially total compliance by the population, that an "asset" which is reliant on stripping the government of power is the investment of choice?

[SharperDingaan]

For those still seeking a 'modern day' explanation of de-fi, might I highly recommend  Hamilton vs Satoshi  ;D

Change isn't coming anymore, it's here !!!

 

 

SD

 

This was pretty good ;D Gave me a good laugh and was actually quite catchy. Does anyone else find it ironic that during a period of intense government control and essentially total compliance by the population, that an "asset" which is reliant on stripping the government of power is the investment of choice?

 

Until now we've all had to accept the abuses inherent with fiat currency, and all we could do was swap one fiat for another - the meet the new boss; same as the old boss. Now there's a real choice, and at all times - the fiat currency is always the safety net.

 

The alternative to BTC is a global digital RESERVE currency - & elimination of USD reserve currency status. Today, central banks either get their collective sh1te together - and offer it (soon), or BTC becomes the RESERVE currency of choice. But it couldn't happen, had BTC not been invented by anarchists.

 

All good.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

[rkbabang]

At least you did buy some. I saw it when it was around $10 but didn’t buy any because new kid, death in the family etc. It was a crazy time. I almost bought $5k worth at that time but didn’t. I probably wouldn’t have held to $50k per Bitcoin anyways.

 

Yes, I had a similar situation.  As I wrote (here) I looked at it at some point 2011 and almost bought it, but I couldn't get over wiring money to mtgox, it just seemed so sketchy.  I changed jobs that year, moved, sold a house, bought another house in a different state, and didn't think about bitcoin again until it went to over $1000 and was in the news in 2013.  When it crashed back down to $200 I made sure to buy some, but not as much as I should have.

 

[Parsad]

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is asking me about crypto now...GME and TSLA don't seem interesting to them anymore.  Every time the subject comes up, I smirk reflexively out of disgust, and I keep hoping I didn't offend the person asking the question.  I also don't want to engage them, so I just say "Yeessss...."

 

I remember the last time this happened 2-3 years ago in these numbers, Bitcoin fell from $28K to $6K.  I'm expecting something similar again, as I don't think we are in a new era!  Cheers!

[rkbabang]

I remember the last time this happened 2-3 years ago in these numbers, Bitcoin fell from $28K to $6K.  I'm expecting something similar again, as I don't think we are in a new era!  Cheers!

 

I'd love the opportunity to buy at $6K again.  Don't get my hopes up like that.

[Parsad]

For those still seeking a 'modern day' explanation of de-fi, might I highly recommend  Hamilton vs Satoshi  ;D

Change isn't coming anymore, it's here !!!

 

 

SD

 

This was pretty good ;D Gave me a good laugh and was actually quite catchy. Does anyone else find it ironic that during a period of intense government control and essentially total compliance by the population, that an "asset" which is reliant on stripping the government of power is the investment of choice?

 

Until now we've all had to accept the abuses inherent with fiat currency, and all we could do was swap one fiat for another - the meet the new boss; same as the old boss. Now there's a real choice, and at all times - the fiat currency is always the safety net.

 

The alternative to BTC is a global digital RESERVE currency - & elimination of USD reserve currency status. Today, central banks either get their collective sh1te together - and offer it (soon), or BTC becomes the RESERVE currency of choice. But it couldn't happen, had BTC not been invented by anarchists.

 

All good.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

I still don't understand the fundamental functionality behind current cryptocurrencies including BTC.  With fiat currency, you have tax revenues and public assets that support the currency.  With gold/silver/etc you have actual utility value that increases with inflation over time.  There is nothing supporting bitcoin except the increase in universality...but at one time tulips were just as universal as currency.  This is going to end the same way...probably when well-endowed companies, sovereign funds, nation states create their own digital/crypto currency.  Cheers! 

[Parsad]

Musk says BTC price seems high, less than two weeks after buying $1.5B worth?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/20/elon-musk-says-bitcoin-seems-high-after-surpassing-1-trillion-market-cap.html

 

Didn’t Elon Musk say Tesla price was too high at one point too?

 

Yes. Back in like May 2020 when the price was like 1/5 of what it is today. BTC to the

 

Does Musk own BTC because he believes it is a fundamental replacement for currency/hard assets?  Or does he own it because he can now tap into the $100B market of potential Tesla buyers that make their money illegally and could not buy Teslas because they didn't want to show cash.  That's alot of Teslas that he can now sell that other car companies can't because they don't accept BTC. 

 

The buyer pays in BTC and then sells the Tesla for cash to others...instantly laundered money for the buyer and Tesla sells a shitload of new Teslas.  At some point, governments will crack down on BTC.  They have to get their cut somehow...a BTC/crypto tax is coming!  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is asking me about crypto now...GME and TSLA don't seem interesting to them anymore.  Every time the subject comes up, I smirk reflexively out of disgust, and I keep hoping I didn't offend the person asking the question.  I also don't want to engage them, so I just say "Yeessss...."

 

I remember the last time this happened 2-3 years ago in these numbers, Bitcoin fell from $28K to $6K.  I'm expecting something similar again, as I don't think we are in a new era!  Cheers!

 

This is interesting to me just because my experience with it is so different. Obviously crypto is seeing more headlines now after it's 5x run, but my experience is that the interest in it still isn't close to what it was in 2017.

 

In my own anecdotal experience, my little brother's college friends were trading shit-coins and getting "rich" in 2017. My NYC finance friends were talking about buying lamborghinis with their crypto profits. I couldn't go to a holiday party at Thanksgiving or Christmas or Ned Years in 2017 without cyrpto being a topic of conversation for people there.

 

Now? Not a peep out my bro's college friends last time I checked in with him (a month or so ago around 35-40k), I have one friend in NYC who still owns Ethereum, and nobody really ralks about it in my social circle except for me.

 

So to me it looks like retail interest is still relatively minimal while it seems it truly is institutional demand pushing the price.

 

While I don't think BTC's boom bust cycle is over, I do think we have further to boom before the eventual bust. The pullback from 40k to 30k was a healthy consolidation that lasted 2-3 weeks. My guess is that we'll pull back to 35-40k for another consolidation in the near future. I don't think this run exhausts itself before 100k though (which would still be shallow compared to prior rallies).

 

Consider 2017. Prices start ~$900/coin and rallies to ~7k by early December. And then goes from 7k to 20k in 4-5 weeks. A massive blow off top that accelerated at the end.

 

We've just seen the rally from 10-12k to 57k over the course of 5 months (akin to the 2017 run) , but haven't yet seen the blow off top IMO. I imagine this will be a 30-50% correction/consolidation like January proved to be and that we'll continue to move higher in the near term. My best guess is this exhausts itself somewhere around 120k a coin, but we'll probably have two or three more 30-50% pull backs along the way.

[Parsad]

For those still seeking a 'modern day' explanation of de-fi, might I highly recommend  Hamilton vs Satoshi  ;D

Change isn't coming anymore, it's here !!!

 

 

SD

 

This was pretty good ;D Gave me a good laugh and was actually quite catchy. Does anyone else find it ironic that during a period of intense government control and essentially total compliance by the population, that an "asset" which is reliant on stripping the government of power is the investment of choice?

 

Until now we've all had to accept the abuses inherent with fiat currency, and all we could do was swap one fiat for another - the meet the new boss; same as the old boss. Now there's a real choice, and at all times - the fiat currency is always the safety net.

 

The alternative to BTC is a global digital RESERVE currency - & elimination of USD reserve currency status. Today, central banks either get their collective sh1te together - and offer it (soon), or BTC becomes the RESERVE currency of choice. But it couldn't happen, had BTC not been invented by anarchists.

 

All good.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

I still don't understand the fundamental functionality behind current cryptocurrencies including BTC.  With fiat currency, you have tax revenues and public assets that support the currency.  With gold/silver/etc you have actual utility value that increases with inflation over time.  There is nothing supporting bitcoin except the increase in universality...but at one time tulips were just as universal as currency.  This is going to end the same way...probably when well-endowed companies, sovereign funds, nation states create their own digital/crypto currency.  Cheers!

 

By the way, don't think that I don't believe in crypto or digital currencies, just not the current ones and how they are supported.  I was way ahead of most people on this, because I bought into blockchain technology when Patrick Byrne was buying up companies years ago...just not a proponent of the current crop of crypto. 

 

I can see someone like Apple issuing their own crypto and backing it with their cash flows as they become larger and larger.  I can see universal use of blockchain technology.  I just don't see BTC being the winner...I see it as the AOL or tulip of this new "paradigm".  Don't trade your shares of Berkshire for BTC!  Remember Time Warner?  Cheers!

[Krapdivad]

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is asking me about crypto now...GME and TSLA don't seem interesting to them anymore.  Every time the subject comes up, I smirk reflexively out of disgust, and I keep hoping I didn't offend the person asking the question.  I also don't want to engage them, so I just say "Yeessss...."

 

I remember the last time this happened 2-3 years ago in these numbers, Bitcoin fell from $28K to $6K.  I'm expecting something similar again, as I don't think we are in a new era!  Cheers!

 

This is interesting to me just because my experience with it is so different. Obviously crypto is seeing more headlines now after it's 5x run, but my experience is that the interest in it still isn't close to what it was in 2017.

 

In my own anecdotal experience, my little brother's college friends were trading shit-coins and getting "rich" in 2017. My NYC finance friends were talking about buying lamborghinis with their crypto profits. I couldn't go to a holiday party at Thanksgiving or Christmas or Ned Years in 2017 without cyrpto being a topic of conversation for people there.

 

Now? Not a peep out my bro's college friends last time I checked in with him (a month or so ago around 35-40k), I have one friend in NYC who still owns Ethereum, and nobody really ralks about it in my social circle except for me.

 

So to me it looks like retail interest is still relatively minimal while it seems it truly is institutional demand pushing the price.

 

While I don't think BTC's boom bust cycle is over, I do think we have further to boom before the eventual bust. The pullback from 40k to 30k was a healthy consolidation that lasted 2-3 weeks. My guess is that we'll pull back to 35-40k for another consolidation in the near future. I don't think this run exhausts itself before 100k though (which would still be shallow compared to prior rallies).

 

Consider 2017. Prices start ~$900/coin and rallies to ~7k by early December. And then goes from 7k to 20k in 4-5 weeks. A massive blow off top that accelerated at the end.

 

We've just seen the rally from 10-12k to 57k over the course of 5 months (akin to the 2017 run) , but haven't yet seen the blow off top IMO. I imagine this will be a 30-50% correction/consolidation like January proved to be and that we'll continue to move higher in the near term. My best guess is this exhausts itself somewhere around 120k a coin, but we'll probably have two or three more 30-50% pull backs along the way.

 

Michael Saylor had a recent podcast on The Bitcoin Standard Podcast where he was explaining how this wave of buying was different from the past ones because of the incoming institutional investors' size and typical holding period. They are able to move the market cap of Bitcoin at $1 trillion more meaningfully due to their size, and able to create less downside volatility because they're allocating a relatively small portion of their overall portfolios to bitcoin as an alternate store of value. This could mean we are in the early stages of mass adoption and likely see the price move much higher rather than lower with the replacement of bitcoin's base of retail adopters with institutional investors.

[SharperDingaan]

The value of BTC is as a store of value, and it does that very, very well.

 

Steal big, and you have an anonymous safe place to store your loot; protected by both technology and the collected ‘enforcement’ of other similarly influential, and like-minded people. Rob a bank, or steal via QE driven inflation; you have the same need - and similar influential like-minded people. What a coincidence!

 

Yes, it’s a great storehouse, but it’s a sh1te ‘store of value’. Not any more - CME derivatives allow the user to continually hedge the value of BTC, and at an ongoing cost well below that of alternative ‘security’. To the anarchists central banks are criminals, on par with the obvious buyers of BTC. The anarchists just recognize that when two scorpions are confined within a small bottle (Yin/Yang), everyone is safer. Mutually Assured Destruction, is a well-proven nuclear arms deterrent. 

 

Should an Apple, Google, or Facebook create their own currency, it would quickly become a global reserve currency – and compete directly with central banks. Forcing central banks to issue their own digital currencies, and a digital global reserve currency for trade settlement - backed by all central banks. All good.

 

The rub is that BTC is like no other asset, so how do you value it? The reality is that you cannot, hence the need for ongoing hedging, and co-opting the gambling market that it creates - criminals aren’t stupid. Accepting BTC for a luxury goods payment, is just being practical; a payment in dirty money, or BTC - the outcome is the same. Whether that be cars, or Rembrandt’s bought as future ‘get out of jail free’ cards.

 

Point? BTC is here to stay, value will change according to the underlying need, and there will be hiccups along the way. Nobody likes change, and this is not your grandpas or your dad’s technology. Ever since day-1, cultures and businesses have sought out the rebels, and ‘assimilated’ them (Star Trek ‘Borg’). Todays rebels become tomorrow’s leadership, and this is no different.

 

SD

 

[Fly]

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is asking me about crypto now...GME and TSLA don't seem interesting to them anymore.  Every time the subject comes up, I smirk reflexively out of disgust, and I keep hoping I didn't offend the person asking the question.  I also don't want to engage them, so I just say "Yeessss...."

 

I remember the last time this happened 2-3 years ago in these numbers, Bitcoin fell from $28K to $6K.  I'm expecting something similar again, as I don't think we are in a new era!  Cheers!

 

This is interesting to me just because my experience with it is so different. Obviously crypto is seeing more headlines now after it's 5x run, but my experience is that the interest in it still isn't close to what it was in 2017.

 

In my own anecdotal experience, my little brother's college friends were trading shit-coins and getting "rich" in 2017. My NYC finance friends were talking about buying lamborghinis with their crypto profits. I couldn't go to a holiday party at Thanksgiving or Christmas or Ned Years in 2017 without cyrpto being a topic of conversation for people there.

 

Now? Not a peep out my bro's college friends last time I checked in with him (a month or so ago around 35-40k), I have one friend in NYC who still owns Ethereum, and nobody really ralks about it in my social circle except for me.

 

So to me it looks like retail interest is still relatively minimal while it seems it truly is institutional demand pushing the price.

 

While I don't think BTC's boom bust cycle is over, I do think we have further to boom before the eventual bust. The pullback from 40k to 30k was a healthy consolidation that lasted 2-3 weeks. My guess is that we'll pull back to 35-40k for another consolidation in the near future. I don't think this run exhausts itself before 100k though (which would still be shallow compared to prior rallies).

 

Consider 2017. Prices start ~$900/coin and rallies to ~7k by early December. And then goes from 7k to 20k in 4-5 weeks. A massive blow off top that accelerated at the end.

 

We've just seen the rally from 10-12k to 57k over the course of 5 months (akin to the 2017 run) , but haven't yet seen the blow off top IMO. I imagine this will be a 30-50% correction/consolidation like January proved to be and that we'll continue to move higher in the near term. My best guess is this exhausts itself somewhere around 120k a coin, but we'll probably have two or three more 30-50% pull backs along the way.

 

We're definitely not at the 2017 retail hysteria for Bitcoin:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?data-ipsquote-timestamp=today%205-y&q=bitcoin

 

But...

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?data-ipsquote-timestamp=today%205-y&q=ethereum

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?data-ipsquote-timestamp=today%205-y&q=cardano

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?data-ipsquote-timestamp=today%205-y&q=ethereum,cardano,bitcoin

 

I do think this time around retail will be brought into crypto through lower priced coins since seeing ~$50k BTC prices isn't as attractive, even if they know they can purchase tiny fractions of a coin. Retail wants something "cheap" price-wise that will turn into the next $50k coin.

[tede02]

Fed chair said today that they are looking very closely at issuing a digital dollar. If central banks issue digital currencies, does that upend BTC and everything esle? Or are people attracted to crypto because of its decentralized nature and supposed anonymity? I struggle to understand the bull case for crypto. The ledger technology seems to have real utility but I don't really grasp how these are solving a lot of problems unless one really fears inflation.

 

I work with a lot of retail investors. My totally subjective view is the fervor for crypto is similar to 2017, maybe slightly dampened because there have been other hot assets running up simultaneously. You know its crazy when construction workers start asking about it... LOL (and I've had several).