Cryptocurrencies

[SharperDingaan]

Fact is, Ireland's health care system screwed up in a very public way, and it brought down a good portion of Irelands health care services. The Irish powers that be, knew they were exposed and CHOSE to do nothing about it. Didn't think it would ever happen - now it is just a panic to keep ones head.

The ransomers just rubbed their nose in it. 20M pounds is a ridiculously cheap ransom, relative to what the health care system spends EVERY DAY. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/05/irelands-healthcare-system-taken-down-after-ransomware-attack/

Blame everything, and everyone else - just not us!

Sorry .. you 'eff up, you wear it, nobody else. Accountability is a bitch.

SD

Edited May 17, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[Simba]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Imagine someone came up with a new type of Christmas lights……….that consume 20x the amount of power of old Christmas lights………the only incremental improvement these new 20x power consuming Christmas lights have is that they are the preferred Christmas lights of extrontists, kidnappers and degenerate gamblers. People argue these new type of Christmas lights should become the defacto Christmas lights for the global economy. Perhaps even the reserve currency Christmas lights. That’s what bitcoin is.

We have a currency already, its both digital & analogue, widely accepted, easily transferred with an at scale digital payments system processing zillions of transactions a second and has built around it an infrastructure which gives ‘bad guys” headaches around how they might get paid without getting caught for X,Y,Z crime. I like the old Christmas lights better.

100% agree.

Some of my random musings on BTC... 

1. There is enough people (i.e. demand), today, to support a price of $50,000. As that is the price.

2. While BTC has no intrinsic value, it's network effects are immense, one can even argue reflexivity is happening  

3. PayPal and Square, two major fintech companies have entered the space. It is only a matter of time as others follow.

4. Will Bitcoin ever reach $0? Do you think the probability of reaching $0, is higher than lower than 1 year ago, 3 years ago, 5 years ago? Every day that passes by, that user adoption increases, that technology increases, etc...Or is the probability decreasing every day that BTC goes to 0$?

5. How does one play bitcoin? By the time BTC gets full adoption, there will be no upside. Putting 1% of your portfolio, will that really make a difference to it?

6. In order for TSLA to buy $1.5B of bitcoin, they clearly was a lot of thought that went into it. The complete 180 in 3 months time, suggests internally they were some discussions going on. (Perhaps at the Board level?) 

7. Have we reached the tipping points, where BTC/ETH has won the crypto? History says otherwise. I still don't see why an alternative, better BTC, can't come up.

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Imagine someone came up with a new type of Christmas lights……….that consume 20x the amount of power of old Christmas lights………the only incremental improvement these new 20x power consuming Christmas lights have is that they are the preferred Christmas lights of extrontists, kidnappers and degenerate gamblers. People argue these new type of Christmas lights should become the defacto Christmas lights for the global economy. Perhaps even the reserve currency Christmas lights. That’s what bitcoin is.

We have a currency already, its both digital & analogue, widely accepted, easily transferred with an at scale digital payments system processing zillions of transactions a second and has built around it an infrastructure which gives ‘bad guys” headaches around how they might get paid without getting caught for X,Y,Z crime. I like the old Christmas lights better.

I can also make up examples that bear no relationship to reality. If you think the ONLY benefit to Bitcoin is it's ability to help extortionists, kidnappers, and degenerate gamblers it's because you have willfully ignored everything BTC supporters have said in the thread. 

[Xerxes]

Michael Saylor must not very happy. He is the one who pushed Musk into Bitcoin late 2020 and ignited this 2021 rally, and now the whole rally is coming down with Musk’ about face.

Saylor is very smart and good marketer. But pushing for Tesla/Musk to go long Bitcoin was a bold move that is now going to end up biting him. Musk is at the end an engineer, always iterating and looking for a solution. Saylor is a marketer and a Bitcoin maximalist. His incentives are clear. 

[JRM]

9 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Doesn't view Bitcoin as anonymous, but will contribute to the debunked trope that it's the "preferred" currency of cyber criminals wanting to escape detection

 

huh?  all I've been talking about is the energy use argument.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, JRM said:

huh?  all I've been talking about is the energy use argument.  

My bad - had you and the other guy confused for a second. I deleted the comment. 

[Castanza]

10 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Michael Saylor must not very happy. He is the one who pushed Musk into Bitcoin late 2020 and ignited this 2021 rally, and now the whole rally is coming down with Musk’ about face.

Saylor is very smart and good marketer. But pushing for Tesla/Musk to go long Bitcoin was a bold move that is now going to end up biting him. Musk is at the end an engineer, always iterating and looking for a solution. Saylor is a marketer and a Bitcoin maximalist. His incentives are clear. 

Michael Saylor always sounds completely insane to me. He's like the Jim Jones of crypto.

"Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing even smarter, faster and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy" - Saylor

Edited May 17, 2021 by Castanza

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Michael Saylor always sounds completely insane to me. He's like the Jim Jones of crypto.

"Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing even smarter, faster and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy" - Saylor

Contrast that with a quote from Munger about Bitcoin “I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization”.

It goes to show that a crazy person can be at times right, while at the same time a genius can be short sighted and wrong.

 

[Castanza]

14 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Contrast that with a quote from Munger about Bitcoin “I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization”.

It goes to show that a crazy person can be at times right, while at the same time a genius can be short sighted and wrong.

 

I don't disagree and I'm not saying Saylor isn't an intelligent individual. There is just so much emotion behind crypto that it completely clouds the objective thesis. Do your personal gains cloud your view of crypto? 

[rkbabang]

6 minutes ago, Castanza said:

I don't disagree and I'm not saying Saylor isn't an intelligent individual. There is just so much emotion behind crypto that it completely clouds the objective thesis. Do your personal gains cloud your view of crypto? 

 

Undoubtedly.  No one can completely stop their emotions from having an effect on their thinking.  All we can do is try to minimize it as much as possible.   My thinking on crypto is basically the same now as it was 7 years ago when I started buying.  I'm hopeful, but hedging my bets.   Back then hedging my bets meant not buying a ton of it (much to my chagrin), and now hedging my bets means selling almost half and locking in some gains, a move that if I'm right about crypto I will regret as much in the future as I regret my decision to not buy more back then.

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by rkbabang

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Castanza said:

Michael Saylor always sounds completely insane to me. He's like the Jim Jones of crypto.

"Bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing even smarter, faster and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy" - Saylor

I made some good money on Shakespeare here, when I bought MSTR in mid-Dec and sold it north of $1050 several weeks later. Not in anyway close to the well-deserved 30,000% that Rkbabang tag & bagged !

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

 

Undoubtedly.  No one can completely stop their emotions from having an effect on their thinking.  All we can do is try to minimize it as much as possible.   My thinking on crypto is basically the same now as it was 7 years ago when I started buying.  I'm hopeful, but hedging my bets.   Back then hedging my bets meant not buying a ton of it (much to my chagrin), and now hedging my bets means selling almost half and locking in some gains, a move that if I'm right about crypto I will regret as much in the future as I regret my decision to not buy more back then.

 

What is your best bear thesis for crypto? Personally I think it's government. I don't think there is a chance in Hell that they stand by and watch their currency erode due to some "decentralized" currency. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Castanza

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

What is your best bear thesis for crypto? Personally I think it's government. I don't think there is a chance in Hell that they stand by and watch their currency erode due to some "decentralized" currency. 

I have 2. 

 

One, like you said, is government(s).  I don't think they can kill crypto dead, just like they can't get rid of weapons or drugs, but they can outlaw it and make it difficult for the average person to use or for legitimate institutions to hold, which will sharply reduce its value.

Two, the bear thesis for all existing crypto, is some new technology that does it better/safer/faster/etc, in such a way that existing blockchains can't fork themselves to take advantage of.   It is impossible to predict if and/or when that might happen.

 

[Fly]

5 hours ago, rkbabang said:

One, like you said, is government(s).  I don't think they can kill crypto dead, just like they can't get rid of weapons or drugs, but they can outlaw it and make it difficult for the average person to use or for legitimate institutions to hold, which will sharply reduce its value.

 

Don't you think we are beyond the point of "killing" crypto? It is going mainstream and held by wealthy as well as retailers. How would the government successfully kill it? Shut down the internet?

Heavy regulation and targeted higher taxes maybe? But would the wealthy find a way to offshore their assets to more friendly jurisdictions?

Edited May 18, 2021 by Fly

[rkbabang]

17 minutes ago, Fly said:

Don't you think we are beyond the point of "killing" crypto? It is going mainstream and held by wealthy as well as retailers. How would the government successfully kill it? Shut down the internet?

Heavy regulation and targeted higher taxes maybe? But would the wealthy find a way to offshore their assets to more friendly jurisdictions?

Yes, that is the counter argument to government will outlaw it.  Every year that passes it becomes less and less likely, but they tried to ban alcohol for a decade, and marijuana for many decades, so never underestimate their stupidity, or how far they will go.

 

[Castanza]

52 minutes ago, Fly said:

Don't you think we are beyond the point of "killing" crypto? It is going mainstream and held by wealthy as well as retailers. How would the government successfully kill it? Shut down the internet?

Heavy regulation and targeted higher taxes maybe? But would the wealthy find a way to offshore their assets to more friendly jurisdictions?

They wouldn’t have to completely kill it to all but destroy the market for it. Executive Order 6102 was basically a ban on gold. Pretty much all production of gold coins and bullion owned by average folks ceased immediately. It had heavy fines and prison time if it wasn’t turned in. 
 

I think with crypto the exchanges would be targeted. How many people are going to go out of their way to buy crypto if the exchanges are not allowed to sell it? My guess is not many. And even fewer would take the risk of going to some sketchy website. Banks and financial institutions could also prevent payments on specific platforms. That’s kind of the crux with crypto right now. You can’t pay cash for it in any efficient manner. Are crypto ATMs still a thing? Cryptos entire thesis hinges on mass adoption and an expansive network. Yeah, no prohibition has ever truly worked.

[changegonnacome]

If the entire county of Iran can be cut off from the international banking system overnight……..I think the US/EU if they put their mind to it could stop you loading up your Coinbase / Gemini wallet with ACH or your debit card 

I think the way they do it, is much more subtle…..lets not forget BTC is a minority sport after all…….for all the headlines it gets…..you do what’s already being done in the EU, you take your banks and you impose on them enhanced due diligence AML/KYC on the provision of corporate banking services to crypto exchanges with the threat of massive fines by ESMA for failures……..exactly like Europe……….99.9% of your banks stop doing business with them immediately….……in Europe right now I can count on one hand the banks that will open corporate account / nominee accounts for exchanges…….for those with an exchange looking for a European home interested they are in Estonia,Liechtenstein & Lithunia……even the mighty Coinbase has to go to the backwaters of Europe to get a bank……….now you have them hoarded into a small space…..you only need to make FOUR phone calls to end crypto on/off ramps into Europe. The USA could do the same.

 

[SharperDingaan]

Authorities/CB's have ALREADY tried to shut down BTC, over YEARS of attempts - and CONSISTENTLY failed. Like it or not, BTC, and its underlying protocol is here to stay. Populations either move with the times, or go the way of the Amish communities. Most opt for progress.

Identical to drug use - populations can choose to either drive it underground, or keep it in the open. The drugs do not go away, they are still bought/sold, just for higher prices. BTC does not go away either, and it was DESIGNED FOR zero trust environments. So please ... drive it underground, prove its value-add still further, and raise the price!!

Currency is just a medium of exchange, to average 'Joe' - can you use it buy a coffee? Sorry. you cannot use BTC to buy a coffee - by the time the transaction chains, your coffee is cold. But buying coffee isn't the market; it is for high value and discrete transactions, where a 1% commission is just another cost of doing business. 

Like it or not, 'pseudo-annonymous' - is still annonymous. Sure, you can track and trace to/from an account, but you have no idea who the public key is. For the name - you are relying on the applications KYC process to open a wallet. Finding an autonomous robot with minimal KYC requirements to open a wallet - is a talent, but not particularly difficult.  

The US is famous for the adage, 'Guns don't kill people, people do'. In the US, more people die from gun-shot every day than vehicle accidents; and around the world - there has been no cure. BTC is identical to the 'gun' - the issue is with how people use it.   

SD

 

 

Edited May 18, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[patience_and_focus]

23 hours ago, Castanza said:

What is your best bear thesis for crypto? Personally I think it's government. I don't think there is a chance in Hell that they stand by and watch their currency erode due to some "decentralized" currency. 

+10

 

I think most of the sovereigns (Uncle Sam and all other Uncles out there) like control over something as fundamental as currency. Even if say US govt allows for broader adoption of any crypto (pick your favorite here) it will want to control the generation and distribution of that specific one (just like the dollar) and make all others as irrelavant as possible. At that point, its just another govt backed currency. It so happens that it is driven by crypto tech and has some other nice properties including, if its even possible, "green tech crypto". But (pseudo) anonymous will not be one of them.

[changegonnacome]

As by homie Naom Chomsky says - Governments have a monopoly on violence.....and they aren't giving up their monopoly on the money supply either.

Expanding aggressively the fiat money supply in times of deep distress has saved society's bacon twice in my brief lifetime......2008 & 2020.....I WANT a central authority to spot impending doom and do something about it.........not some decentralized hive mind that may or may not come to consensus on taking actions to save humanity. This is the problem at the heart of decentralization - as problems become increasingly complex it becomes clear, pretty quickly that some centralized governance and control is required. Its the story of every ETHER based project tackling big big problems.

For the bitcoin evangelists in their utopia of a decentralized future world with no central authority issuing monetary instruments........whats the plan for the next global pandemic/disaster that freezes the economy for months? My guess there isn't a plan? How could there be there is no CEO of bitcoin, President of ethereum?

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

As by homie Naom Chomsky says - Governments have a monopoly on violence.....and they aren't giving up their monopoly on the money supply either.

Expanding aggressively the fiat money supply in times of deep distress has saved society's bacon twice in my brief lifetime......2008 & 2020.....I WANT a central authority to spot impending doom and do something about it.........not some decentralized hive mind that may or may not come to consensus on taking actions to save humanity. This is the problem at the heart of decentralization - as problems become increasingly complex it becomes clear, pretty quickly that some centralized governance and control is required. Its the story of every ETHER based project tackling big big problems.

For the bitcoin evangelists in their utopia of a decentralized future world with no central authority issuing monetary instruments........whats the plan for the next global pandemic/disaster that freezes the economy for months? My guess there isn't a plan? How could there be there is no CEO of bitcoin, President of ethereum?

Sounds a lot like Hamilton 

SD

 

[changegonnacome]

Love it  

Was China reading my posts for the last few days  …….they sure do move fast over there

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-financial-payment-bodies-barred-cryptocurrency-business-2021-05-18/

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Love it  

Was China reading my posts for the last few days  …….they sure do move fast over there

https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-financial-payment-bodies-barred-cryptocurrency-business-2021-05-18/

China has been negative towards crypto from the start. There were posts back in 2019/2020 talking about how Xi wanted to ban it and he'd bad-mouth it and it'd crash 20% overnight - this happened on multiple occasions. 

While it would be more bullish if China (and India) were onboard with BTC (growing network and all), I don't think China's continued stubbornness in this regard is anything new to be concerned with. Ultimately, those savvy enough will still have access if they want it and this isn't a permanent bar on mainstream access - yet. 

DeFi on Ethereum has exploded. 20x increase in transaction volume YoY and 71% increase in active user addresses YoY. The "crash" in BTC prices has taken us back to highs from just 3-months ago while ETH is back to where it was 3-weeks ago.  We keep rehashing the same debates and arguments and everyday the network value is growing for both both BTC and ETH. 

[changegonnacome]

Yeah China/India……no biggie………… just 2.8 BILLION people or pushing about 40% of the worlds population…….your right

[TwoCitiesCapital]

35 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Yeah China/India……no biggie………… just 2.8 BILLION people or pushing about 40% of the worlds population…….your right

1) How many of Bank of America's clients do you envision are based in China? How could it ever demand a $350 billion valuation without them?!?!?

2) How many search results for Google come from China to support it's $1.5 trillion valuation? How could Google every hope to support it's business without any users in China?!?!?!

3) How many Chinese citizens own U.S. stocks on U.S. exchanges? How could the S&P ever be worth 20 trillion in aggregate capitalization without Chinese citizens buying it?!?!?

There's value to the world outside of China/India because what matters is aggregate incomes and wealth. While both of them are improving, they're still not as impactful as the developed world economies.

 If both of them permanently ban it then than of course it's maximum value will be lower than if both of them supported it. But that doesn't mean it's worth 0, or that people won't find value in a network that excludes China/India, or isn't worth it's current value of $43,000 without them. We literally saw announcements like this all throughout 2019 and 2020. It still went to 65k and network usage/wallets/participants exploded. 

There is nothing new about criticalness from China/India, or from the power usage arguments, or crime arguments all of which get continuously get recycled here. 

Edited May 19, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital