dwy000 Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 I don't normally delve into this space too deeply (wish I did for Brookfield!) but when Seth Klarman and David Abrams both initiate huge portfolio positions in the same company in the same quarter - from zero - it gets my attention. Has anyone dug into this and have a view as to why this one and why now? It doesn't look like it's moved much over the recent past to suggest bottom fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Legacy Northstar assets were discounted due to a bad deal with their external manager, trading at up to a 15% yield last year at some point. Read up old NRF thesis on VIC or seeking alpha. They were also across invested several industry verticals and products, including manufactured homes and CDOs, making it difficult for some investors to value. Colony paid off former managers $250mm to go away and now is selling down those discounted assets and getting the investment closer to fair value. Thesis of selling non-core assets and redeploying money into core-verticals is working out as well. I like the investment: I think you replaced crummy managers with a world class operator in Thomas Barrack, with assets at a discounted price. Abrams and Baupost both played the merger and did well. NRF and NSAM rallied from the deal announcement through closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Does anyone have any idea why CLNS has declined 30% in the last year? It looks like similar peers are down 15-20% in the last 6 months, so why is CLNS so much worse given that it was already trading at a lower FFO multiple/higher yield before the recent declines? One thing I know is they've been slowly moving their portfolio of other investments off-balance sheet, and in most cases collecting a mgmt. fee on those assets I think that most investors don't believe their dividend is sustainable, but in my own analysis, I assumed FFO from balance sheet assets declined while asset management fees increased (many of these assets are being spun into new entities managed by CLNS) so that FFO ultimately declined to a level that was in excess of the current $1.08 dividend. Has anyone else analyzed this and come to a different conclusion? It's trading at an 11.4% yield right now with a basket of hotel, industrial, and healthcare real estate. Industrial and healthcare assets typically trade at mid-single digit cap rates 4-6% given their growth (industrial) and stability (healthcare). What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berkshire101 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Does anyone have any idea why CLNS has declined 30% in the last year? It looks like similar peers are down 15-20% in the last 6 months, so why is CLNS so much worse given that it was already trading at a lower FFO multiple/higher yield before the recent declines? One thing I know is they've been slowly moving their portfolio of other investments off-balance sheet, and in most cases collecting a mgmt. fee on those assets I think that most investors don't believe their dividend is sustainable, but in my own analysis, I assumed FFO from balance sheet assets declined while asset management fees increased (many of these assets are being spun into new entities managed by CLNS) so that FFO ultimately declined to a level that was in excess of the current $1.08 dividend. Has anyone else analyzed this and come to a different conclusion? It's trading at an 11.4% yield right now with a basket of hotel, industrial, and healthcare real estate. Industrial and healthcare assets typically trade at mid-single digit cap rates 4-6% given their growth (industrial) and stability (healthcare). What am I missing? I was in NSAM prior to the merger. The management is shady, like really shady. So I think the company is being discounted given management lack of accountability and transparency. Also, they're pretty levered compared to their peers, and the debt maturity isn't well staggered. And when you have a diversified portfolio with mixed industries, it's harder to value. Their assets aren't class A. Makes sense there's a discount relative to peers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The management has changed, and is run by the former Colony Capital folks. Do you know much about Colony's mgmt. team? Or is that specific to Northstar team, which does sound really shady. I believe they got paid $250MM NOT to manage the assets anymore. Agreed they are highly levered, and the mixed industries make the value more obscure, but none of that explains why CLNS trades at an 11.4% yield when its closest peer (VTR) trades at 5.6% in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 CLNS is down ~25% this morning on anemic guidance. Assuming the guidance is accurate, it still doesn't seem particularly cheap to me on a cash flow basis. This despite it trading significantly under TBV and having lots of 3rd party AUM (poor ROA). Maybe their G&A is bloated beyond all reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 CLNS is down ~25% this morning on anemic guidance. Assuming the guidance is accurate, it still doesn't seem particularly cheap to me on a cash flow basis. This despite it trading significantly under TBV and having lots of 3rd party AUM (poor ROA). Maybe their G&A is bloated beyond all reason? They said 4Q 0.16 FFO/share is run-rate, suggesting full year FFO is 0.64? At 6.00 thats a ~9.3x FFO, not cheap at all. New yield is ~7.3% on a .11/quarter dividend. I really haven't done any work on this, but was G&A synergies just from not paying over-inflated salaries to previous management? I get the feeling they're trying to be a new BAM, with lower quality assets and an acquisition of Northstar at a cyclical high. I also read on the call that they have $4.8bn in floating rate debt? Ouch. Now that rates are rising, the music has stopped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogermunibond Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 CLNS amazes me because both Baupost and Abrams were holders in the the 4th quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrallen81 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Yes, and I re-learned that even the greatest investors make bad mistakes. Feel I didn't look hard enough before buying because in the back of my head I knew they were investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Good article on CLNS by Koneko Research https://konekoresearch.com/2018/03/09/colony-northstar-merger-math-2223/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted March 27, 2018 Share Posted March 27, 2018 I think the run rate FFO is about $0.88/share/year ($0.22/q = $0.16-$0.01 (gains) + $.05 (hosp seasonality) + $.02 (CDO write-offs)) with no gains going forward so at current price you have 6.4x FFO. The prefs are still trading at 8% so you get a pref/common spread of 6.3% with no growth. If they can get some growth from here you can have some nice upside. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winjitsu Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 I think the run rate FFO is about $0.88/share/year ($0.22/q = $0.16-$0.01 (gains) + $.05 (hosp seasonality) + $.02 (CDO write-offs)) with no gains going forward so at current price you have 6.4x FFO. The prefs are still trading at 8% so you get a pref/common spread of 6.3% with no growth. If they can get some growth from here you can have some nice upside. Packer Packer, curious do you do cap structure "arb" trades [short pref, long equity]? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I think the run rate FFO is about $0.88/share/year ($0.22/q = $0.16-$0.01 (gains) + $.05 (hosp seasonality) + $.02 (CDO write-offs)) with no gains going forward so at current price you have 6.4x FFO. The prefs are still trading at 8% so you get a pref/common spread of 6.3% with no growth. If they can get some growth from here you can have some nice upside. Packer I believe that's the run rate core FFO based on their Q4 results, but didn't the CFO guide that 2018 would be lower when he discussed each segment individually during his part of the call? Ditto for his attempt to quantify 2018's increased interest expenses related to all the floating rate debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 In the transcript the CFO stated in the Q&A that Q4 was a better proxy due to the lack gains which were not expected going forward. Later he goes through the adjustments to the 4Q results to get a run rate. Unless I missed something in the transcript. Do you know where the comment you refer to is in the dialog/transcript? Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 In the transcript the CFO stated in the Q&A that Q4 was a better proxy due to the lack gains which were not expected going forward. Later he goes through the adjustments to the 4Q results to get a run rate. Unless I missed something in the transcript. Do you know where the comment you refer to is in the dialog/transcript? Packer In the CFO's prepared remarks he went through each of of their 5 operating segments. At the end of his discussion of each segment he gave a 2018 outlook/forecast for that segment. He also guided to $0.07 per share higher full year interest expense, which would need to be factored in since most of the segment guidance was NOI-based. If you scroll down to the bottom of the Koneko Research post I linked to earlier in this thread there's a (somewhat pixelated) model that IMO does a good job of capturing the guidance that was provided. It's not my model, but the #s I've come up with are similar. I don't think they've given any guidance for corporate overhead. It's going to be interesting to see how many more cost reductions they can eke out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Contra123 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 FWIW after hearing of this name & seeing the chart (looks like death) and pondering of doing some work on it recently, I spoke with someone who is familiar with the key personalities at the top of this company and some of the assets, and they STRONGLY advised me to steer clear. I don't know though to what extent this is a widespread perception in the market & thus priced in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 18, 2018 Share Posted April 18, 2018 FWIW after hearing of this name & seeing the chart (looks like death) and pondering of doing some work on it recently, I spoke with someone who is familiar with the key personalities at the top of this company and some of the assets, and they STRONGLY advised me to steer clear. I don't know though to what extent this is a widespread perception in the market & thus priced in. Can you be more specific? Did this person give any specific rationale for not liking the management and assets here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Colony returning to its distressed investing roots. Tom Barrack, an Arabic speaker, has a long history doing business in the Middle East. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-abraaj-divestiture/colonys-cayman-court-showdown-on-abraaj-set-for-july-11-sources-idUSKBN1JO0RY Hilarious (to me at least) that they recently changed the name of the company to remove the Northstar stigma. What a dumpster fire Northstar turned out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ballinvarosig Investors Posted August 20, 2018 Share Posted August 20, 2018 I have to say, this one is starting to look interesting to me. Discount to tangible book value and a huge slug of shares just repurchased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Pay-to-play is alive and well in the US-of-A https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/trump-s-inaugural-chairman-looked-to-cash-in-on-infrastructure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Pay-to-play is alive and well in the US-of-A https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-05/trump-s-inaugural-chairman-looked-to-cash-in-on-infrastructure Mueller enjoyed the festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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