Cigarbutt Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 Thought this was a nice article giving perspective on Hyman Minsky, the economist. (From David Hay, Gavekal) Credit amplifies business cycles. Where are we in the cycle (supercycle)? I somehow feel that bottoms have not been tested. Enjoy the ride. http://files.constantcontact.com/3bf703a6001/0b7092c0-e570-46ec-8b59-4c01e6d749aa.pdf?ver=1496433429000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jb85 Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 total credit to GDP has stopped shrinking and is either flat lining or going up again https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=316529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 total credit to GDP has stopped shrinking and is either flat lining or going up again https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=316529 This is a bit misleading. "Total" credit would be inclusive of corporate and gov't where this is simply households and non-profits. Total debt across public and private sector has never stopped growing - even when expressed as a percent of GDP. See p.i (p.3 in the pdf) which shows the progression over the last few years of Domestic Nonfinancial Debt https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted June 5, 2017 Share Posted June 5, 2017 Government's borrowing in own currency are not subject to Minsky moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 Government's borrowing in own currency are not subject to Minsky moments. Not making an argument one which way or another. Printing yourself out of debt and into hyperinflation is its own kind of problem. Was simply showing that the title "total debt to GDP" that excludes public debt is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aberhound Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 Government's borrowing in own currency are not subject to Minsky moments. Except for Venezuala, Argentina and Zimbabwe, and now with cryptocurrencies probably Italy, Greece and Portugal forcing the EU federal union. Isn't that the purpose of the Anglo alliance for allowing cryptos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 Government's borrowing in own currency are not subject to Minsky moments. Except for Venezuala, Argentina and Zimbabwe, and now with cryptocurrencies probably Italy, Greece and Portugal forcing the EU federal union. Isn't that the purpose of the Anglo alliance for allowing cryptos? Yea none of those countries you listed borrow/borrowed in their own currency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jb85 Posted June 6, 2017 Share Posted June 6, 2017 This is a bit misleading. "Total" credit would be inclusive of corporate and gov't where this is simply households and non-profits. Total debt across public and private sector has never stopped growing - even when expressed as a percent of GDP. I included (DODFS) and (TBSDODNS) in the above graph. These are financial and nonfinancial company liabilities. This should include everything and matches what i've seen is about 330% total credit to GDP. I'd be curious to see figures that show total debt to GDP that is signficantly higher than this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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