DooDiligence Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Latest earnings webcast takeaways for SCI. ----- CEO talked about earnings & how the tax issue affected profits. Discussed pre-need sales increases & their contribution to growth. Then he switched to cash flow & capital allocation. CFO concentrated on cash flow analysis & touched on earnings & how they were affected by the results of an IRS audit covering 1999 to 2005 which increased payables by $40M (2 b funded by an existing credit facility) & the effects of discontinued businesses. He mostly explained the results from a cash flow perspective. How refreshing! Still some overhang on the IRS situation but expected to resolve soon with payment following (also released reserves for the IRS resolution.) Expects 36% to 37% tax rate into the future. $100M in cash held captive in Canada. 14% to 18% cash growth expectation on flattish revenues & earnings (near term.) Continuing aggressive buy backs ($274M left in repurchase program.) Buying back roughly 4x the dividend rate. OCF expected to be in the range of $460M to $505M for 2017 & will spend $75 to $100M on acquisitions & new funeral home construction opportunities - expects 100M in dividends - and the remaining $260M will be used for share repurchases & other value enhancing projects. $180M recurring CAPEX for 2017 with $25M for growth CAPEX (green field projects.) $80M marked for existing cemetery development CAPEX. ----- Working higher end clients ($40K or more sales) & building out nicer digs for the beneficiaries (that’s a nice way of saying dead guys) and they have “velocity” in this category (unit volumes are increasing! sustainable?) Building out new facilities to service this segment (completed Vancouver project recently.) Using 1031 exchange transactions & a trust fund which can be utilized for acquisitions & shields from cap gains (no effect on IRR) (6% to 7% growth in the trust fund.) Focusing on & achieving higher value “pre-need” sales & ASP’s are growing (the Pig in the Python!) Cemetery sales are largely “pre-need” & represent float? (35% to 40% down-payments) the sales rep gets 20% commission out of this & any build-outs to support the sale get done as needed (funded by installment payments?) Rev recognition from “pre-need” sales may provide a tailwind to eps & give better market visibility going forward but management doesn’t seem inclined to aggressively abuse this. Comp revs growing 1.9% (excluding cremation) (holding 1% to 2% same store sales increases lets them protect margins.) Fixed costs are largely personnel & benefits are a big component. Being more efficient by using FNARP? system by Oracle (What the Facebook is that?) The funeral business is seasonal. Talked up the Flu as a sales driver! Big Flu season = more business (go Flu, just not in me.) “While we didn’t see a big flu season last year” we’re holding our breath for a strong season & hoping more PBM’s will require co-pays to reduce vaccinations (he only really said the stuff in quotes, I was just riffing with the rest.) Expect to achieve low single digit growth in cremation (scale is important.) Guiding flat to low overall on earnings & soft sells guidance (which I like.) —— They use the “HMIS Plus” for their customer facing, web based sales tool (said they’ve been experiencing a little reluctance which necessitates re-training to get sales reps onboard.) They’re looking to use HMIS Plus in what they call “the sales enablement tool” to take the show out of the funeral home & on the road (back half of this year.) Said they want to “roll this through the country.” Are they hiring for the "on the road" sales effort or do they have reps in place already? Transitioning from selling on your own turf is a big change. * Note: A competitor, Batesville (a Hillenbrand Co), bought HMIS funeral home system (a private co) back in 2012 and apparently continues to offer the software/service to competitors. How important would the loss of this platform be to SCI’s marketing efforts? Hillenbrand chose to buy the company for tighter integration. SalesForce system has been fully implemented as their CRM tool. I assume they use SalesForce to do outreach with patients like those who are “terminal contracts” to predict upcoming benefit revenues & expenses & of course to coordinate services. —— Had $2.5B in FCF over the past decade & returned it almost to the penny through mostly buybacks & to a lesser extent, dividends. Increased the balance sheet by roughly $2.8B (liabilities increased $3.1B (ex share equity) & shareholders equity decreased about $290M) Current assets down from $421M in 2007 to $354M in 2016. Gross PPE went from $3,790M in 2007 to $3,293M in 2016. Roughly $240M went out in executive comp over the decade. Market cap increased $1.8B over the same time period. Oh, and it's highly leveraged (I know you guys like that) & not just on the balance sheet, they have operating levers as well. Not a screaming deal right now but a cannibal which could continue eating itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikhil25 Posted June 8, 2017 Share Posted June 8, 2017 Haven't looked at SCI closely, but was researching the industry for a startup idea. Figured you might find my notes helpful. Industry overview: - large, 2.6M die each year (US) - total size: 18.75B annual revenue - fragmented, largest player (SCI) controls 16% revenue market share; other large consolidators (carriage, stonemor, North Star & arbor) have 5% share; 79% independents - total funeral homes in US: 28000; 24k are individually owned - other big player (adjacent): walmart - sells caskets online - average funeral cost: $7500 - $9000 Challenges: - absolutely no price transparency - very expensive - availability can be an issue - funeral home directors are difficult to work with (not open to technology / competition) Trends: - big trend towards cremation; tougher for cemeteries - focus on celebration of life and service - meeting needs of ethnic and religious preferences - companies focusing on "pre-needs" Opportunities start ups are seeking: - Price comparison / transparency; e.g., parting.com looked up nomispublications.com (yellow pages) to identify funeral homes & paid Indian call center $3/hr to call them to source info on prices/services. Built database of 15k funeral homes, but only 150 are verified/premium paying customers - pre-needs/afterlife needs: setting up your will (willing.com), what to do with your social media accounts/digital presence - celebration of life: foundation partners group is selling experiences using multi-sensory experience rooms e.g. Using audio/video/scent of newly mowed grass, you could salute the life of a golfing fanatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 8, 2017 Author Share Posted June 8, 2017 Haven't looked at SCI closely, but was researching the industry for a startup idea. Figured you might find my notes helpful. Industry overview: - large, 2.6M die each year (US) - total size: 18.75B annual revenue - fragmented, largest player (SCI) controls 16% revenue market share; other large consolidators (carriage, stonemor, North Star & arbor) have 5% share; 79% independents - total funeral homes in US: 28000; 24k are individually owned - other big player (adjacent): walmart - sells caskets online - average funeral cost: $7500 - $9000 Challenges: - absolutely no price transparency - very expensive - availability can be an issue - funeral home directors are difficult to work with (not open to technology / competition) Trends: - big trend towards cremation; tougher for cemeteries - focus on celebration of life and service - meeting needs of ethnic and religious preferences - companies focusing on "pre-needs" Opportunities start ups are seeking: - Price comparison / transparency; e.g., parting.com looked up nomispublications.com (yellow pages) to identify funeral homes & paid Indian call center $3/hr to call them to source info on prices/services. Built database of 15k funeral homes, but only 150 are verified/premium paying customers - pre-needs/afterlife needs: setting up your will (willing.com), what to do with your social media accounts/digital presence - celebration of life: foundation partners group is selling experiences using multi-sensory experience rooms e.g. Using audio/video/scent of newly mowed grass, you could salute the life of a golfing fanatic Thank god I'm on an imposed 7 day cooling off period right now. You give me much to look at (thanks!) I see opportunities for them in moving the show "on the road" & using technology to facilitate. If undertakers won't leave their mausoleums (had to look that word up) then hiring an outside sales force should be a priority. Green services are an opportunity they're pursuing https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/10/05/877401/0/en/Dignity-Memorial-Opens-First-Green-Burial-Cemetery-in-Seattle-Area.html Will add on services make up for lower ASP's on cremation? (it's a volume business.) Gotta hook up with more of the immigrant population - foreigners love funerals! ;) I think there's a tiny float in the pre-needs biz. Roll ups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Doo, Like you said on TRUP thread: two words: pet funerals. This could be barking yuge. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atbed Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Doo, Like you said on TRUP thread: two words: pet funerals. This could be barking yuge. 8) ROFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Thanks & keep em coning. My self imposed cooling off period ends next Thursday & I'm open to being talked out of it. If it was around $25 or less I might have an itchy finger but... Wonder if this guy still works for them? https://funerals.org/i-work-for-sci-currently-it-is-a-sales/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Life expectancy isn't increasing anywhere near the levels that most people think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Life expectancy isn't increasing anywhere near the levels that most people think it is. Cyborgs would be the nail in the coffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Life expectancy isn't increasing anywhere near the levels that most people think it is. Cyborgs would be the nail in the coffin Wouldn't it be nice if you actually posted some thoughtful comments from time to time as opposed to knee-jerk rambling nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 Doo, Like you said on TRUP thread: two words: pet funerals. This could be barking yuge. 8) These guys can bury a horse! http://dignifiedpetservices.com (devote 20 seconds to watching the vidi on their homepage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 Great article! Strong brand with pricing power? and a little bit of switching costs? Nancy bought Ronny's services through SCI? Some warts in the article too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atbed Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Doo, Like you said on TRUP thread: two words: pet funerals. This could be barking yuge. 8) These guys can bury a horse! http://dignifiedpetservices.com (devote 20 seconds to watching the vidi on their homepage) http://themascott.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/nottugboat.png I guess there are tugboats of all sizes out there... jeez what pet weighs "up to 3,000 pounds" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 I have yet to see an investment thesis for SCI - FCF yield? The valuation metrics don't look compelling to me. The pre-need accounting is funky, since the funds don't belong to the company (they are in a trust fund) until the time comes. STON is a case study of a funeral MLP, which distributed cash Bernie Madoff style, based on very questionable accounting for a long time. I can get better DCF yield with pipeline MLP's or similar C-corps in the pipeline business (KMI, ENB) and I think their accounting is much more straightforward and the growth profile better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Life expectancy isn't increasing anywhere near the levels that most people think it is. Cyborgs would be the nail in the coffin Wouldn't it be nice if you actually posted some thoughtful comments from time to time as opposed to knee-jerk rambling nonsense? The post with which Doo started this thread was not good enough for you? ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 10, 2017 Author Share Posted June 10, 2017 The Bloomberg article pretty much gives these guys the high end market. the Bloomberg article They've apparently memorialized a lot of important people & recent "pre-need" over $40K contract results seem to support this. --- "The pre-need accounting is funky, since the funds don't belong to the company (they are in a trust fund)" (spek) Isn't this part of the tax strategy they discussed (along with 1031 transactions?) I kinda think it represents a weak, nebulous float? (I admit to not totally understanding this fund, will read up on it...) I also think that once a guy makes a downpayment on a $40K+ contract, there's switching costs. And how hard can it be to repossess a grave? --- Definitely NOT arguing with you Speck. Valuation looks bad. I'm anchored to the demographics of an aging populace. Management speaking more in terms of managing cash flow instead of earnings, also kind of hooked me. I think you're mostly right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DooDiligence Posted June 10, 2017 Author Share Posted June 10, 2017 Headwinds are increased life expectancy and the trend towards cheap cremation "turn and burn". My guess is that the latter is secular and probably accelerating as I see that baby boomers and the generation that follow care much less about funerals than those before. Life expectancy isn't increasing anywhere near the levels that most people think it is. Cyborgs would be the nail in the coffin Wouldn't it be nice if you actually posted some thoughtful comments from time to time as opposed to knee-jerk rambling nonsense? There are others who would say that cyborgs are not just knee jerk, rambling nonsense. It sounds like a joke when you just say "cyborg" but when you think in terms of a body filled with replacement parts & then call the result a cyborg, well, maybe there's a better name for it, like "enhanced individual" (EI's with AI's running the systems & AR assisting the host?) Pohl - "Mars Plus" & "Man Plus" were AWESOME friggin novels & Miller's "Canticle for Leibowitz" is kinda the antithesis. RB, your point re: life expectancy growth is valid & your strong insights will ALWAYS be welcome - even if you struggle to add humor to them ;) I'm not gonna change my style, I am a natural born smart / dumb ass. I am; however, going to continue TRYING to post relevant thoughts about businesses I believe COULD be profitable to own. I'll also stick to COBF thread naming conventions from now on (no more Rocky & Bullwinkle titles.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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