Gregmal Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Ive lived in and around NYC my whole life. I guess Im just used to the stench... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Thinking about the whole things with the Spheres, the fact that there don’t appear to be real return projections, it seems to me a Dolan vanity project. I guess since Dolan itself is an aspiring artist (thanks fo Foreign Truffet for the video clip), he probably really likes the idea of creating something unique of such scale. The economics with a $1.7B cost ($500M above internal projections) on leased land, with a cost plus project where the land owner gets a cut of the profits above a certain threshold look pretty bad to me. Looks like the MSG has delayed the project and tries to figure out how to get the cost into control. They have sunk $100M so far in this. That said, I don’t think Dolan is totally stupid and any losses would come from his own pocket foremost, since he holds most shares. I feel that is a good chance that this gets scaled back or cancelled altogether. $100M in losses wouldn’t break the investment thesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted August 22, 2019 Share Posted August 22, 2019 Thinking about the whole things with the Spheres, the fact that there don’t appear to be real return projections, it seems to me a Dolan vanity project. I guess since Dolan itself is an aspiring artist (thanks fo Foreign Truffet for the video clip), he probably really likes the idea of creating something unique of such scale. The economics with a $1.7B cost ($500M above internal projections) on leased land, with a cost plus project where the land owner gets a cut of the profits above a certain threshold look pretty bad to me. Looks like the MSG has delayed the project and tries to figure out how to get the cost into control. They have sunk $100M so far in this. That said, I don’t think Dolan is totally stupid and any losses would come from his own pocket foremost, since he holds most shares. I feel that is a good chance that this gets scaled back or cancelled altogether. $100M in losses wouldn’t break the investment thesis. Aspiring? The guy legit plays at the Garden and goes on global tours lol. The thing is legit rich guy still in a garage band level shit. But good for him. Has the money to do it and is living the dream. If I owned an NHL team I'd be on the roster. If they're going to go ahead with this, I think its only fair to speed up the spin, which is what it looks like was the plan. Let shareholders invest where they want. If there is one thing you can not knock Dolan for, it is that historically, he listens to shareholders. For the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 https://sports.yahoo.com/chinese-state-tv-drops-nba-143151359.html Like trade war, this will probably drag on for a while. Long term, it'll probably be resolved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 https://lightshedtmt.com/2019/10/28/as-msg-circles-catalysts-360-in-view-initiating-with-buy-rating/ We believe a minority sale of the Knicks and Rangers will come in the next few months, but have not included that upside in our $360 PT $MSG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 https://lightshedtmt.com/2019/10/28/as-msg-circles-catalysts-360-in-view-initiating-with-buy-rating/ We believe a minority sale of the Knicks and Rangers will come in the next few months, but have not included that upside in our $360 PT $MSG “Fear the Sphere!” Until he drops his vanity project, I am out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 https://lightshedtmt.com/2019/10/28/as-msg-circles-catalysts-360-in-view-initiating-with-buy-rating/ We believe a minority sale of the Knicks and Rangers will come in the next few months, but have not included that upside in our $360 PT $MSG At the current valuation, even a partial sale should substantially move the needle. I liked this a lot more when the margin of safety consisted of a NAV around $10B and an EV around $5B; clean and clear. So yea, the idea that the sphere's could now eat up $3.6B of that....gives me some pause. But I think the risk of sphere 2 is lower and largely predicated on sphere 1 and its success or failure. Theres still few better assets to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Silicon Valley fund seeks major stake in New York Knicks, Rangers: https://nypost.com/2019/11/03/silver-lake-seeks-piece-of-lowly-knicks-rangers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 “You know I own a basketball team. For most people that would be a dream,” Dolan sang in the video with lyrics he made up. “For a trust fund kid, it’s a living hell. Always some a—hole telling me to sell.” This might be one of the most fucked up yet funny comments Ive ever heard, that has been said with complete sincerity. Silver Lake has long been around, and Im pretty sure they are Dolan's friendly option to make something happen where everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 You'd think the stock would be up on this news!? Go figure People really do hate Dolan I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 For one, I am not sure the market cares for Knicks/Rangers are getting sold rumors anymore...been too many of those. Second, if Silver Lake is the buyer, I wouldn't be so sure its at the $5b+ for the Knicks and $1.5b+ for the Rangers valuation, especially if its a non controlling interest. Doesnt mean there isn't upside, but there's been too many head fakes with the sales news. NY Post is typically reliable with Knicks/Rangers/Dolan stuff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 “You know I own a basketball team. For most people that would be a dream,” Dolan sang in the video with lyrics he made up. “For a trust fund kid, it’s a living hell. Always some a—hole telling me to sell.” This might be one of the most fucked up yet funny comments Ive ever heard, that has been said with complete sincerity. Silver Lake has long been around, and Im pretty sure they are Dolan's friendly option to make something happen where everyone wins. The stock would be up more if he would sing “I kick my sphere in the rear” or something similar during the next earnings report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 If he owned the whole team, nobody would be bothering to tell him what to do... it's just those pesky shareholders... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 https://nypost.com/2019/11/06/james-dolan-urged-to-sell-stakes-in-knicks-and-rangers-by-investor/ And another one. Curious if anyone is planning on attending the AGM next month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Yahtzee! https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1636519/000119312519287461/d828066dex991.htm Realign the spin, retain sports interests, split out the venues, and put London on ice. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Nothing but good news all around in this report! I'm very happy with these announcements. wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 3, 2020 Share Posted March 3, 2020 https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28818084/clippers-owner-steve-ballmer-advanced-negotiations-buy-forum-msg-sources-say This could potentially be material depending on where/when. If the sale is assigned to the entertainment company, this could be a nice chunk of capital on a % of market cap basis. If not, its still by my estimates $75-100M in proceeds. Dolans making lemonade out of lemons here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 4, 2020 Share Posted March 4, 2020 https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/charles-oakleys-dire-james-dolan-warning-after-spike-lee-fiasco/ Interesting stuff and if you read between the lines, I would be very careful if I was James Dolan. Would not be surprised if mystery tapes start getting leaked. Probably not true of course, but between disgruntled fans and very deep pockets of Wall Street scoundrels desperate for a liquidity event, you never know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pocoapoco Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Price down enough to add significantly here but I’m trying to handicap how much earnings loss in the next quarter will be in share terms. If they are shut down for 3 months, do they forgo the 600m in revenue but still pay the 500m expenses ... a ~$25 hit to valuation Thats probably too conservative for a quarter but it could leak into the following quarter etc Probably trading low enough to account for that and more but want to be careful of the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 11, 2020 Share Posted March 11, 2020 Yea the kicker of course is how the market reacts to the spin or if the company temporarily decides to hold off on that given the environment. The tricky aspect here is this has never really been an earnings or revenue story. So yes, they'll incur losses. At the same time, should Dolan decide to put the assets up for sale, I see zero change on the valuation front in terms of private market value. Of course thats a long shot still, but you never know. Given where the season is, thankfully its almost over anyway and the Knicks and potentially even Rangers likely weren't seeing huge playoff revenue. Of course concert figures will get whacked. We shall see. Ive added substantially here. Was a genius yesterday and a dumbass today. Thats how the market works sometimes. Always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/?_sm_au_=iVVRJKkSLk3H2HD62fFCLKQVsL14F Interesting take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 The Forbes value is simply taken as sacrosanct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 http://clarkstreetvalue.blogspot.com/?_sm_au_=iVVRJKkSLk3H2HD62fFCLKQVsL14F Interesting take Riddle me this: How much is a sports team worth if the owner has no intention of ever selling? The NPV of future cash flows and a reasonable guess as to how that cash flow will be allocated? Dolan family is uber wealthy, right? Assuming he doesn't have a medical emergency, kazoo playing Jim Dolan will probably never be a forced seller like Donald Sterling was. "I am not selling, but I am determined to find the right leader for the Knicks who will ensure the long-term success of the team, just as we did with the hiring of Rangers President John Davidson." https://www.si.com/nba/2020/02/06/james-dolan-knicks-president-search-not-selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 The Forbes value is simply taken as sacrosanct? I wouldn‘t put much credence in any valuation that is more than 3 weeks old right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 The Forbes valuation has always been lower than the actual transacted prices, by a significant margin. This is basically just a time arbitrage right now. You're buying the whole thing for less than the Knicks value. This "super flu with a social media following" isn't impairing anything, and will blow over. When it does, you've got a lot of upside even with a discount. People regularly said Dolan wouldn't sell Cablevision either. Its "he'll never sell, until he does". Its hard to make the case Dolan isn't working for shareholders when you look at all the corporate actions taken by companies he's controlled over the years. Its just a lazy narrative that looks a little easier to throw on top of the companies when everything appears to be in the gutter. Its much like all the "I knew company XYZ was a piece of shit" going on at several other investment sites with companies that were multi baggers and are now down 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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