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MSG - The Madison Square Garden Company


saltybit

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$400m for the Forum, more than double my estimates. So yea, coronavirus what? Billionaires will still buy billionaire toys.

 

EDIT, I'll also add, this against a total cost from purchase date of about $140M. Not a bad IRR over 7 years.

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Forbes value is predominantly based on EV/Sales, so it's a lagged metric which is why transactions have typically occurred above the stated level. I've found that there's usually other things at work in the actual transactions (favorable licenses, other assets, etc.) but the Forbes value isn't so bad a place to start.

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Also good news, MSG Sphere LV suspended. Woo hoo. You can put a fork in London if thats the case.

 

How much did they sink in LV and London so far? Hopefully that these things will never get build. They were a bad idea when the economy was going great and they sure aren’t a good idea now.

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$200-$300 already on LV. They ll likely see that through. But the slowdown will certainly halt anything in London. Dolan is a dreamer, but he s not stupid. You’ve also got guys like Nelson Peltz on the board. It’s a wise move tapping the breaks, if nothing else to see what’s going to play out before committed 60% of the market cap(or 30% of total intrinsic value) on a fantasy project. Couple these with the timely Forum sale, and I’m a happy camper.

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So MSG has about $1.3 Billion in net cash? Seems more than enough to weather the storm..

 

Great news that the spinoff is still happening

 

I think NBA games come back sooner than expected (with no fans). Test all the players for COVID & let them play---TV viewership / ratings would be off the charts!

 

Seems at least 50% undervalued.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Hmm is there a balance sheet available on just MSG Sports? Would you value it simply as Knicks + Rangers +/- cash/debt?

 

They have pro forma numbers in form 10.

MSGE will have about $1.7b cash and $253m debt after LA Arena transaction. MSGS will have about $100m cash.

Most people are probably in this for MSGS assets. At today's price, MSGE is valued around its cash value while MSGS is about $4.3b for Knicks and Rangers. Would love to hear board members thoughts.

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Hmm is there a balance sheet available on just MSG Sports? Would you value it simply as Knicks + Rangers +/- cash/debt?

 

They have pro forma numbers in form 10.

MSGE will have about $1.7b cash and $253m debt after LA Arena transaction. MSGS will have about $100m cash.

Most people are probably in this for MSGS assets. At today's price, MSGE is valued around its cash value while MSGS is about $4.3b for Knicks and Rangers. Would love to hear board members thoughts.

 

Yup. I love the sports and probably won't ever sell, but the E is being given away. When you put on your long term investor cap, its crazy to think you are getting this biz, one that has hugely favorably growth runways with millenials+future generations, at these prices. Future consumption trends toward "experiences" and MSGE is one of the cleanest ways to play it, with a massive margin of safety at these prices. Ive been buying today. I also expect them to eventually pull the trigger on a REIT conversion here.

 

Knicks at $5 and Rangers at $2 is reasonable, but thats all thats left in S, and you have to discount that until they are sold. $5B-$5.5B is probably my guess at FV for that.

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Hmm is there a balance sheet available on just MSG Sports? Would you value it simply as Knicks + Rangers +/- cash/debt?

 

They have pro forma numbers in form 10.

MSGE will have about $1.7b cash and $253m debt after LA Arena transaction. MSGS will have about $100m cash.

Most people are probably in this for MSGS assets. At today's price, MSGE is valued around its cash value while MSGS is about $4.3b for Knicks and Rangers. Would love to hear board members thoughts.

 

Yup. I love the sports and probably won't ever sell, but the E is being given away. When you put on your long term investor cap, its crazy to think you are getting this biz, one that has hugely favorably growth runways with millenials+future generations, at these prices. Future consumption trends toward "experiences" and MSGE is one of the cleanest ways to play it, with a massive margin of safety at these prices. Ive been buying today. I also expect them to eventually pull the trigger on a REIT conversion here.

 

Knicks at $5 and Rangers at $2 is reasonable, but thats all thats left in S, and you have to discount that until they are sold. $5B-$5.5B is probably my guess at FV for that.

 

 

Gregmal, do you have an update on where you think the whole pie should trade pre/post deal? Trying to wrap my head around a reasonable intrinsic value number? Thanks

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Everything in the universe?

 

Ive got MSGN at $2.75B- assets are simple enough

 

MSGS $7B then just kind of scribble in an annual % appreciation for the trophy assets. +5% annually should be the floor for IV.

 

MSGE I think is now where more the value will be unlocked. The RE itself probably somewhere around $2B, the brands like Rockettes are hard to value but certainly worth something, cash, and of course the eventual Sphere but even that is interesting here. If theres a slowdown then construction costs should be able to get negotiated downward, or, the project could get scrapped. I see it as universally negative in peoples opinions of it, and I aint crazy about it, but it could also surprise folks. FV estimate at this point is probably around $3.5B

 

Not exactly in the same light 100% but Ive always thought the MSG Company had/has a lot of similarities to an early stage Disney. If they are able to grow and lead the pack in the "experience" category, things could get very interesting.

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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29079303/a-rod-j-lo-retain-jp-morgan-possible-bid-mets-per-reports

 

Recession? Economic slowdown? As long as there are rich people with egos there will be demand for sports assets. It will be interesting to see if the Mets get the $2.5-$3B that Cohen tentatively offered. Nets got $2B and the stadium $1B, there is no reason the Knicks + Garden arent at least double that.

 

 

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https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29079303/a-rod-j-lo-retain-jp-morgan-possible-bid-mets-per-reports

 

Recession? Economic slowdown? As long as there are rich people with egos there will be demand for sports assets. It will be interesting to see if the Mets get the $2.5-$3B that Cohen tentatively offered. Nets got $2B and the stadium $1B, there is no reason the Knicks + Garden arent at least double that.

 

Hi Gregmal,

 

Where can I find the financials for MSGE?

 

Thanks

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Everything in the universe?

 

Ive got MSGN at $2.75B- assets are simple enough

 

MSGS $7B then just kind of scribble in an annual % appreciation for the trophy assets. +5% annually should be the floor for IV.

 

MSGE I think is now where more the value will be unlocked. The RE itself probably somewhere around $2B, the brands like Rockettes are hard to value but certainly worth something, cash, and of course the eventual Sphere but even that is interesting here. If theres a slowdown then construction costs should be able to get negotiated downward, or, the project could get scrapped. I see it as universally negative in peoples opinions of it, and I aint crazy about it, but it could also surprise folks. FV estimate at this point is probably around $3.5B

 

Not exactly in the same light 100% but Ive always thought the MSG Company had/has a lot of similarities to an early stage Disney. If they are able to grow and lead the pack in the "experience" category, things could get very interesting.

 

I appreciate the perspective!

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Everything in the universe?

 

Ive got MSGN at $2.75B- assets are simple enough

 

MSGS $7B then just kind of scribble in an annual % appreciation for the trophy assets. +5% annually should be the floor for IV.

 

MSGE I think is now where more the value will be unlocked. The RE itself probably somewhere around $2B, the brands like Rockettes are hard to value but certainly worth something, cash, and of course the eventual Sphere but even that is interesting here. If theres a slowdown then construction costs should be able to get negotiated downward, or, the project could get scrapped. I see it as universally negative in peoples opinions of it, and I aint crazy about it, but it could also surprise folks. FV estimate at this point is probably around $3.5B

 

Not exactly in the same light 100% but Ive always thought the MSG Company had/has a lot of similarities to an early stage Disney. If they are able to grow and lead the pack in the "experience" category, things could get very interesting.

 

I appreciate the perspective!

 

No problemo. All I'd add, something I struggle with, at least in terms of struggling to get granular on a valuation gap that is massive, is the overlap with incorporating stadium/venue values into the sports teams. Its hard to look into the data of past sales because market/region is the driving figure and comps on 1/1 assets are tough. To be safe I'd probably put MSG dirt at $2B, air rights at $500M, and Knicks at $4.5, Rangers at $1.25B, but again, its all perspective and can be tinkered with and is now even more complex with the arena in one entity and sports in another. Actually quite smart. Nets I found to be a good floor marker.

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For those invested in the MSG universe, are you also in Liberty Braves?  It seems to trade at a large discount to Forbes valuation plus real estate assets.  If one is preferred over the other are there any particular reasons?  Thanks for your thoughts.

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For those invested in the MSG universe, are you also in Liberty Braves?  It seems to trade at a large discount to Forbes valuation plus real estate assets.  If one is preferred over the other are there any particular reasons?  Thanks for your thoughts.

 

I dont own the Liberty Braves because by and large I am not really that hot on sports assets as investments through public vehicles. MSG is appealing because you own the absolute best ones, at a large discount, with a stealthily shareholder oriented operator whom most write off as the exact opposite. To me, baseball teams are also less desirable than basketball. Maybe similar to hockey, outside of course, the major market teams. Trophy assets, are hot most of the time. The trophy assets of the trophy assets, are hot ALL the time. Atlanta is a tier 2 market.

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