BG2008 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tracking This Comedy Cash and cash equivalents of $480 million as of December 31, 2019. Revenue of $529,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Net loss of $73 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019, including applicable transaction costs. Adjusted EBITDA totalled $(55) million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Capital expenditures totalled $6 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2019-Financial-Results/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tracking This Comedy Cash and cash equivalents of $480 million as of December 31, 2019. Revenue of $529,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Net loss of $73 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019, including applicable transaction costs. Adjusted EBITDA totalled $(55) million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Capital expenditures totalled $6 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2019-Financial-Results/default.aspx I'm shorting some way out of the money calls right now so will be dialing into the conference call to hear an update on the business. As much as I think it's a nutty case I'm kinda curious about the business. Wait, should I have done some diligence before exposing myself to unlimited loss?? :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tracking This Comedy Cash and cash equivalents of $480 million as of December 31, 2019. Revenue of $529,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Net loss of $73 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019, including applicable transaction costs. Adjusted EBITDA totalled $(55) million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Capital expenditures totalled $6 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2019-Financial-Results/default.aspx Just want to doublecheck: you are surprised that pre-revenue company has no revenue and is losing cash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tracking This Comedy Cash and cash equivalents of $480 million as of December 31, 2019. Revenue of $529,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Net loss of $73 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019, including applicable transaction costs. Adjusted EBITDA totalled $(55) million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Capital expenditures totalled $6 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2019-Financial-Results/default.aspx Just want to doublecheck: you are surprised that pre-revenue company has no revenue and is losing cash? Not surprised, just baffled at how out-of-touch with reality the bulls in SPCE are. Famous last words. The stock is going to rip after I type this. This is a favorite on the WallStreetBets Subreddit on Reddit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Not surprised, just baffled at how out-of-touch with reality the bulls in SPCE are. Famous last words. The stock is going to rip after I type this. This is a favorite on the WallStreetBets Subreddit on Reddit Yeah, valuation is likely crazy. They could potentially get to $1B revenue by selling 10K tickets at $100K each. That still would not be good reason to invest from current operational situation and valuation. And yeah, there are funny tidbits in the release: Announced collaboration with Under Armour and unveiled Future Astronaut spacesuits. Launched Astronaut Readiness Program at Under Armour Global Headquarters in Baltimore, MD. I wonder if they already started collaboration on Astronaut Under-wear too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 I'll buy some SPCE stock if they get this guy to endorse Virgin Galactic Navy Seal Harvard MD Astronaut The ultimate Triple Crown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 25, 2020 Share Posted February 25, 2020 Tracking This Comedy Cash and cash equivalents of $480 million as of December 31, 2019. Revenue of $529,000 for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Net loss of $73 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019, including applicable transaction costs. Adjusted EBITDA totalled $(55) million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. Capital expenditures totalled $6 million for the three months ended December 31, 2019. https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2019-Financial-Results/default.aspx It’s a story stock. Numbers don’t matter unless the narrative changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I sold a few 4 day calls with a $40 strike for $2 and just bought them back at $0.35. Still have a few 5 day calls with 35 strike that I wrote for $2.09 which now trades at 0.88. Position sizing matters. This would've been a 40-50bps position if it actually becomes ITM. Implied vol was like 270 when I wrote those or 5.7% on the $35 calls and 5% for the $40 call. It's a weird world we live in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I sold a few 4 day calls with a $40 strike for $2 and just bought them back at $0.35. Still have a few 5 day calls with 35 strike that I wrote for $2.09 which now trades at 0.88. Position sizing matters. This would've been a 40-50bps position if it actually becomes ITM. Implied vol was like 270 when I wrote those or 5.7% on the $35 calls and 5% for the $40 call. It's a weird world we live in. I'm thankful for the vol lovers. Without them it's impossible to have these types of opportunities. I sold $55 calls for april expiry for $5.50 on Thursday. I think they're at $1.25ish now? Not a bad way to make a few dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I sold a few 4 day calls with a $40 strike for $2 and just bought them back at $0.35. Still have a few 5 day calls with 35 strike that I wrote for $2.09 which now trades at 0.88. Position sizing matters. This would've been a 40-50bps position if it actually becomes ITM. Implied vol was like 270 when I wrote those or 5.7% on the $35 calls and 5% for the $40 call. It's a weird world we live in. I'm thankful for the vol lovers. Without them it's impossible to have these types of opportunities. I sold $55 calls for april expiry for $5.50 on Thursday. I think they're at $1.25ish now? Not a bad way to make a few dollars. And another instance of how the most dangerous perceived thing to do actually was the most logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest roark33 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 The problem with this is that this idea seemed just as smart at $20, and you could have gotten run over at those prices, so calling it logical because it worked is really hindsight bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 I sold a few 4 day calls with a $40 strike for $2 and just bought them back at $0.35. Still have a few 5 day calls with 35 strike that I wrote for $2.09 which now trades at 0.88. Position sizing matters. This would've been a 40-50bps position if it actually becomes ITM. Implied vol was like 270 when I wrote those or 5.7% on the $35 calls and 5% for the $40 call. It's a weird world we live in. I'm thankful for the vol lovers. Without them it's impossible to have these types of opportunities. I sold $55 calls for april expiry for $5.50 on Thursday. I think they're at $1.25ish now? Not a bad way to make a few dollars. I had a feeling that the Corona Virus news was potentially the knive in the heart for SPCE. I have been buying puts in various companies including my own portfolio companies since Mid Jan. Selling the calls on SPCE was partially to finance the cost of my puts that I have been buying. But I sized it small like 40bps of notional exposure if they become ITM. These greater fools trades looks unstoppable until it stops working. I actually thought about buying the $15 puts expiring in July. But decided to sell the calls after thinking it through.l The real companies shine through if we do get a real full blown recession. It is probably a better short now than before as the air feels like it is being let of the balloon of these YOLO traders. Gay bear wins for now (reddit reference). Tendies all around. And another instance of how the most dangerous perceived thing to do actually was the most logical. I think if you had a view that the YOLO crowd was on its last legs and the Corona Virus is going to be much bigger deal than the market was anticipating, then maybe there was a madness to that process and not hindsight results thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 Its not really hind site bias as much as it is pattern recognition. Im not claiming to have made money on this; I didn't. Perhaps one day I'll take the time to put together a precise checklist of these things, but when they all align it is almost always the end. Check the Tesla top thread. A few people got it. Beyond Meat, same thing. Tilray, got it too. Some of(but definitely not all, as Im half assing a summary) these tell tale signs include: -well researched short pitches significantly below current price - series of gap ups -significant spike in HTB rate -irregular borrow availability -massive increase in social media activity -seeing the company making headlines on non financial news websites -doubling or tripling in less than 1 month or so, many times even a few days/weeks -no real catalyst for the move(people will often say "Oh the SpaceX valuation", or things like that, but those are bullshit) -blow off top generating 50%+ returns from days prior The more of these you have, the closer you are to the end. After a while it becomes very predictable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 The problem with this is that this idea seemed just as smart at $20, and you could have gotten run over at those prices, so calling it logical because it worked is really hindsight bias. You're right to a certain extent. If the trade was initiated at $20 the MTM would hurt. But I think this is where you sort of need to go in with a game plan that accounts for that scenario (e.g., the expiry, strike, etc.), and you need to be confident enough to put on more trades if it goes against you. I'm not saying $20 would have been the right or wrong point, just that the mental exercise needs to be there to be prepared. In my instances, if the stock went to $45, I would have sold more calls at $65 strike, and so forth. Even if the calls get ITM, I can always roll the calls to the next expiry. So being wrong on one point doesn't necessarily mean being wrong on the entire trade, if one is planning to follow up on it. However, as Greg alluded to above, at certain times the market just gets crazy and the implied vol is just not sustainable. When I put the trade on the IM was over 200. Think about this for a second - someone is willing to pay 15% of the current stock price ($5.5/36), betting that the stock will go up by 68%+ ($55 strike), in about 40 trading days, when 40 trading days ago it was just 28% of the current stock price (~10/36). In other words, I'd need to believe that the stock is worth 6x what it was worth at the end of December by mid April, to buy those calls. Possible? Yes. Likelihood? Very, very low, IMHO. And if I'm wrong, I'm willing to put more trades on to get my money back, and then some (within a risk profile). To put this into perspective - AMZN, itself not a low vol stock, is trading at 1980. A comparable strike would be 3025, but for April expiry the market doesn't even offer it. For a 2900 strike, the market is pricing it at 0.30 at the mid. And I would argue that the likelihood of AMZN at those levels is greater than SPCE on a fundamental basis. If I may put the question back to you - how much would you need to be compensated to sell those calls? $10? $20? $50? More? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted February 27, 2020 Share Posted February 27, 2020 It is probably a better short now than before as the air feels like it is being let of the balloon of these YOLO traders. Gay bear wins for now (reddit reference). Tendies all around. I do have to credit WSJ or wherever it is where I read about WSB. I had no idea about SPCE until I saw it there. It gave me some comfort if that was the other side of the trade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 I kid you not, this is the headline for Virgin Galactic from a research report Virgin Galactic Stock Soars Because Covid-19 Can’t Hurt Companies With No Sales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 24, 2020 Share Posted March 24, 2020 I kid you not, this is the headline for Virgin Galactic from a research report Virgin Galactic Stock Soars Because Covid-19 Can’t Hurt Companies With No Sales I love that the only comment on the Barron's article is "hahahahaha." Yeah, that about sums it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaegi2011 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 I kid you not, this is the headline for Virgin Galactic from a research report Virgin Galactic Stock Soars Because Covid-19 Can’t Hurt Companies With No Sales But it's true... :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 There are no viruses in space. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 There are no viruses in space. Just sayin' Not if you put it in a space ship and shoot it up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 There are no viruses in space. Just sayin' Not if you put it in a space ship and shoot it up there First company to send virus into space! Boldly going where no virus has gone before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted March 25, 2020 Share Posted March 25, 2020 I’m no doctor of medicine/physics, but I would think a virus could circulate for longer in outer space since there is less gravitational pull bringing viral air droplets down to the “ground”. Same could go for spitballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 So VSS Unity, the company's sole completed space vehicle, has only been to outer space two times: Once in 12/2018 and once in 2/2019. Unity's predecessor craft, the VSS Enterprise, crashed and was destroyed in 2014, but I'm sure all the kinks are worked out now and that next year this company will do the 115 successful flights to outer space that management is projecting. :P https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash Well, here we are all these months later and the Unity has still been to space only two more times than my car has. Saturday's test flight didn't go so well. At least no one died this time. https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Update-on-Test-Flight-Program/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Well, here we are all these months later and the Unity has still been to space only two more times than my car has. We should book your car on SpaceX to equal out the numbers somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Saturday Dec 12th: failed test First two business days following the failed test: Chairman of the company sells 3.8 million shares because he needs to "manage [his] liquidity" What a remarkable coincidence! https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706946/000170694620000061/xslF345X03/wf-form4_160816341417857.xml https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1339425375063953409 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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