Jump to content

IPOAU - Social Capital Hedosophia


saltybit

Recommended Posts

Trading at $7.25.  Stay the F away from SPACs post deal people.  The best one that I have seen is Del Taco and that has crashed to $7.50.  Hostess Brands is still holding up.  ROIC is probably one of the best performing.  That was a SPAC that they convert into a REIT vehicle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Replies 75
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Adam Jonas, the guy who put a $125-$250 per target on Tesla when it was a $30 stock apparently thinks this is worth $22....

 

 

Its a tempting short(and eventual zero IMO) but could also continue to rip shorter term. It seemed everyone and their mother was hugely negative on this and rightfully so. However there is enough of a bridge between now and when they will have to produce anything sort of meaningful, where meaningless shit will move the pps. I'm stalking this for sure, but hoping to avoid all the whipsawing that probably takes place in between.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

So VSS Unity, the company's sole completed space vehicle, has only been to outer space two times: Once in 12/2018 and once in 2/2019.

 

Unity's predecessor craft, the VSS Enterprise, crashed and was destroyed in 2014, but I'm sure all the kinks are worked out now and that next year this company will do the 115 successful flights to outer space that management is projecting.  :P

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So VSS Unity, the company's sole completed space vehicle, has only been to outer space two times: Once in 12/2018 and once in 2/2019.

 

Unity's predecessor craft, the VSS Enterprise, crashed and was destroyed in 2014, but I'm sure all the kinks are worked out now and that next year this company will do the 115 successful flights to outer space that management is projecting.  :P

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash

 

Yea the above is something I struggle with a little. You kind of have a great short setup here, but there are also quite a few very realistic scenarios here where you stand to profit from some tragic and unfortunate stuff. Not something a typically like participating in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

 

Thanks for the link. No position, but I continue to believe this will end up being a dumpster fire. Some of these statements from Palihapitiya are just LOL:

 

"The actual business performance looks like a software company"

 

The company is effectively pre revenue, so by "actual business performance" he really means "management's projections."

 

Is launching people into space really akin to a SaaS business? No, not at all. Software businesses can often scale without big increases in expenditures, but for this to gain scale it has to (among other things) build more spaceships, which is very expensive.

 

"We have spent 14 years de-risking alot of the technologies"

 

Was the ship that crashed and was destroyed in 10/2014 part of that de-risking? I guess now that their current spaceship has left the atmosphere twice, the technology is de-risked.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Some of these statements from Palihapitiya are just LOL:

 

"The actual business performance looks like a software company"

 

...

"We have spent 14 years de-risking alot of the technologies"

 

Yes.

 

Sir Richard looked quite uncomfortable during some questions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lot of dreams / revenue streams ? .

 

I think their main source of revenue is going to be launching satellites for other countries, companies similar to spacex and blue origin. Not sure how far down they are with this capability.

 

Another stream of revenue might be cutting travel time between different cities. How much of a volume they will have who knows.

 

The space tourism revenue is probably lumpy or not that huge compared to commercial satellite launches. That too is not recurring or high number of turns.

 

I have heard hazardous waste ( nuclear ) disposal on other planets (mars) theory as well

 

We have 2 people who are masters at selling things to other people, whether it materializes or not who knows

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also I wonder what kind of relationship Chamath and Adam Jonas have. Chamath seems to be talking up Adam Jonas in tv interviews and Adam Jonas increases his price targets on SPCE.

 

Every sell side analyst is different. Some are known for their analysis (estimates, price target, etc.) while some are known for providing management access to buy side clients. Adam Jonas is the latter type, which is perfectly ok and is a very lucrative career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think their main source of revenue is going to be launching satellites for other countries, companies similar to spacex and blue origin. Not sure how far down they are with this capability.

 

They don't have orbit-capable ship.

Edit: this has been under development from 2007: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LauncherOne

Scheduled for flight in 2020. We'll see.

 

Another stream of revenue might be cutting travel time between different cities. How much of a volume they will have who knows.

 

Safety, cost, noise, etc. is not resolved.

Space-X is way ahead of them and even Space-X won't have this for 10 years+.

 

I have heard hazardous waste ( nuclear ) disposal on other planets (mars) theory as well

 

As long as we are in SciFi land, we should ship the hot air to space.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Virgin Orbit owns LauncherOne. Virgin Orbit is not owned by Virgin Galactic, it is a separate and distinct entity. Virgin Galactic is a pure play on suborbital space tourism.

 

"The merger between holding company Social Capital Hedosophia (NYSE:IPOA) and Virgin Galactic, announced back in July, is not expected to close before Q4 2019, and will not include a transfer of ownership of Virgin Orbit in any case. And no other plans to make Virgin Orbit publicly tradable have been announced."

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/06/virgin-orbit-plans-first-satellite-launch-in-2-mon.aspx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

I wonder how many of the retail investors piling in to this are aware of Branson's sweet royalty deal:

 

"we [sPCE] are obligated to pay VEL [Virgin Enterprises Limited] quarterly royalties equal to the greater of (a) a low single-digit percentage of our gross sales and (b) (i) prior to the first spaceflight for paying customers, a mid-five figure amount in dollars and (ii) from our first spaceflight for paying customers, a low-six figure amount in dollars, which increases to a low-seven figure amount in dollars over a four-year ramp up and thereafter increases in correlation with the consumer price index. In relation to certain sponsorship opportunities, a higher, mid-double-digit percentage royalty on related gross sales applies."

 

#PartyLikeIt's1999

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mark my words! Virgin Galactic trading below $10 is going to be horrific.  In SPAC investments, trading below the $10 initial price has very detrimental consequences for investor psychology.  I don't know why, I hate Chamath as my spidey senses feels really weird around him. 

 

I was right briefly and then I have been wrong big time on this one.  This market is incredible. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Best way to trade this market is to snort a line of cocaína just before the market opens, then use all your available margin to buy junk like NVTA, SPCE, and NIO while pounding your chest and screaming "YOLO" and "FOMO" at the top of your lungs.

 

#NotInvestmentAdvice

#NoSeriouslyThisIsNotInvestmentAdvice

 

Idk, even Bloomberg featured a piece this week about r/wallstreetbets and the Microsoft options being touted on there ;D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Best way to trade this market is to snort a line of cocaína just before the market opens, then use all your available margin to buy junk like NVTA, SPCE, and NIO while pounding your chest and screaming "YOLO" and "FOMO" at the top of your lungs.

 

#NotInvestmentAdvice

#NoSeriouslyThisIsNotInvestmentAdvice

 

LOL. This really deserves and upvote.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea this, much like TSLA on this last spike to 900 and change has a lot of the hallmarks of the blow off top. Borrow rates have gone from basically a general collateral security, now either none(as indicated above) or HTB and 60%+ ranges.

 

I've got some puts here from 12.5 and 18 that are still somehow indicating value, but are likely toast. Theres probably good money here if anyone can figure out a cost effective short, but I am not seeing anything. Even pairing the upper end with some calls is costing like $9 per share for a month or so of protection. Puts are juiced out.

 

Despite all the danger, shorting some shorter dated out of the money calls is probably the best bet here. But I am not feeling that ballsy this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...