MrB Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Sooo... Apart from buyout speculation (which does seem like the eventual outcome), what do people actually think about the business, the valuation and it's progress during the last year or so? It seems like a lot of the problems were self-inflicted with misaligned incentives and much too high staff turnover. Things that should be fixable. I think the core Rent-A-Center stores generate strong (if fluctuating) free cash flows. These free cash flows have been obscured by wasteful capital allocation. For example the company bought back over $500 million in stock at an average price of $31 per share, and also spent a ton of money on a proprietary point-of-sale ("POS" is definitely the appropriate acronym in this case) system that has been problematic . I thing I worry about is the performance of the company further deteriorating as a result of the revolving door that has apparently been installed in the C-Suite. If you look at Aaron's latest presentation http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/10/104698/AAN_3Q17_Investor_Relations_Deck_r.pdf then you will note on p.5 that the core business is declining and the top line is only growing because of Progressive/virtual (Anow equivalent). A good chunk of that is due to strategic shift from physical to online, but I think it is pretty established that the rent-to-own physical footprint is shrinking. It seems like tough nut to crack for a C-suite in disarray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Good point. Not really actionable, but it might be worthwhile for you guys to know that there has been a sales process going on in Denmark since autumn 2017 where L'easy - a company much like rent-a-center - has been shopped without success so far. L'easy is pretty well managed, so it's probably more a question of price since it hasn't been sold, but it means that at least two similar assets are on the sales block ATM. Lonestar has been mentioned as a potential acquirer of both I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Rent-A-Center, Vintage Capital sign standstill deal amid buyout talks https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rent-a-center-m-a-vintage/rent-a-center-vintage-capital-sign-standstill-deal-amid-buyout-talks-idUSKBN1F82VC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Do you think this is because they are the only bidder at table or do you think they have put a potential number on the table that is reasonable enough to have a more serious discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Do you think this is because they are the only bidder at table or do you think they have put a potential number on the table that is reasonable enough to have a more serious discussion? Bait or stalker? Not sure what odds I'm putting on that, but 50/50 is a good starting point for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 RCII has had a brutal last couple of weeks. I've (luckily) stayed away, based on the idea that their management turnover and distraction doesn't bode well for their upcoming earnings. Anyone think it's getting interesting here? Also, this: http://investor.rentacenter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90764&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2330309 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Basically up to Engaged now. Their show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Allan Mecham (Arlington Value) bumped up his RCII position by almost 1/3 in Q4. That tiny incremental positive was enough to motivate me to get back into this falling knife at $9.21 at few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Should I say welcome to Hotel California? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Should I say welcome to Hotel California? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Q4 results are out and, as I expected, they are poor. It doesn't look like the company is going to be sold off in the near term. I think it's especially instructive to look at the "Rental Merchandise" figure. They have ~13% LESS owned merchandise than they did a year ago. Most (all?) of the free cash flow they are producing is from what amounts to a slow motion liquidation as they "eat their seed corn." The refranchising initiative reminds me of GNC a few years ago. I see it as basically a "we can't make our stores work so we will simply sell them off." It's worth a try I guess, but I don't expect it to work much better than it did for GNC unless they can mitigate SSS declines somehow. I think what's going on is that the "virtual" solutions like AcceptanceNow and Aaron's Progressive Leasing are eating the core stores alive. John Doe no credit doesn't want to shop at Rent a Center for electronics when he can shop at Best Buy instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Also, consumer credit is very loose right now. This is bad for counter-cyclical RCII as it means that John Doe poor credit has financing available to him that he definitely wouldn't have had access to five or six years ago. This allows him to shop for furniture and electronics where he wants to, instead of being forced to resort to walking in RCII store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 FT I think it is worth noting that what they're doing is consistent with Engaged's original proposal e.g. stock selection is wrong and needs to be changed, AcceptanceNow is not working great, Mexico, etc. Worth a look. The link is somewhere in the thread and slide 66 is insightful in light of your comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Rent-A-Center in talks with possible buyers, cuts 250 jobs https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rent-a-center-layoffs/rent-a-center-in-talks-with-possible-buyers-cuts-250-jobs-idUSKCN1GJ35U Allan Mecham - Arlington Value is heavy in this name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Rent-A-Center spikes on report (EDIT: RUMOUR) of upcoming deal https://seekingalpha.com/news/3343354-rent-center-spikes-report-upcoming-deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Cerberus Enters Fray for Rent-A-Center https://www.thestreet.com/story/14546924/1/cerberus-enters-fray-for-rent-a-center-sources.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Cerberus Enters Fray for Rent-A-Center https://www.thestreet.com/story/14546924/1/cerberus-enters-fray-for-rent-a-center-sources.html Another rumour. Someone is playing those jungle drums hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/reuters-america-update-1-rent-a-center-expects-decision-on-buyout-bids-by-second-quarter.html UPDATE 1-Rent-A-Center expects decision on buyout bids by second quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 "the Company is raising its full year free cash flow guidance from at least $130 million to at least $170 million." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 "the Company is raising its full year free cash flow guidance from at least $130 million to at least $170 million." http://investor.rentacenter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90764&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2341581 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 I'm a buyer at this FCF multiple Aaron's could be a bidder but the fundamentals might justify a higher bid than the last one ( $13 per share) 55% short interest!? Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerBBQ Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 anyone have any thoughts on why the short interest is so high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 anyone have any thoughts on why the short interest is so high? Poorly run business in an industry that's being disintermediated going up against a well run competitor. I can see why someone would short it. The longs would likely generally acknowledge these factors, but feel they're changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Yup, RCII is improving. I'd be scared sh!tless if I were in this crowded short. Business is better since the $13 bid. Engaged Capital, Arlington Value, Vintage Capital & maybe Cerberus know it's worth much more than a measly $13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted April 10, 2018 Share Posted April 10, 2018 Engaged Capital Presentation: http://www.engagedcapital.com/press/RCII-Presentation.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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