LowIQinvestor Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 I love when everyone references Volkswagen/Porsche in a crowded name. There were very specific reasons for that squeeze and it was a pair trade - this has none of those qualities. I spent some time looking at Engaged portfolio and their investment success. I was not impressed. They have had some success in selling companies - and some failures. But if you look at their core portfolio now, HAIN, RCII, TIVO - they have lost a lot of money on all of them despite market up huge. Re turn-around strategy working - I have no view. But I do know that consensus is if this ends w/o a sale - the stock will go down - A LOT. So please keep that in mind as you invest for the coming weeks. I am not short, not long obviously. Puts seem to be very cheap if what you say is true. You're right...option prices are odd - very low implied vol given the event is imminent. Still have no interest but that's odd. I think the likely outcome is a sale at/near current prices. Something must have leaked ahead of the annual meeting. :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrB Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 I love when everyone references Volkswagen/Porsche in a crowded name. There were very specific reasons for that squeeze and it was a pair trade - this has none of those qualities. I spent some time looking at Engaged portfolio and their investment success. I was not impressed. They have had some success in selling companies - and some failures. But if you look at their core portfolio now, HAIN, RCII, TIVO - they have lost a lot of money on all of them despite market up huge. Re turn-around strategy working - I have no view. But I do know that consensus is if this ends w/o a sale - the stock will go down - A LOT. So please keep that in mind as you invest for the coming weeks. I am not short, not long obviously. Puts seem to be very cheap if what you say is true. You're right...option prices are odd - very low implied vol given the event is imminent. Still have no interest but that's odd. I think the likely outcome is a sale at/near current prices. Something must have leaked ahead of the annual meeting. :-X Rent-A-Center Concludes Review of Strategic and Financial Alternatives, Announces New 2018 Guidance Based on Materially Improved Financial Performance and Provides Business Updates ...“Through the execution of our strategic plan, we continue to make significant progress to strengthen our financial profile and improve our results. Our cost reduction initiatives are significantly ahead of schedule and we expect to generate over $100 million in annual run-rate savings and realize approximately $70 million in savings in 2018. This compares to our previous expectations of $65 million to $85 million in annual savings and $43 million to $57 million realized in 2018 announced in February, and $75 million to $95 million in annual savings and $50 to $63 million realized in 2018 which was updated in April.... ..2018 Guidance Consolidated Revenues of $2.640 to $2.690 billion Core U.S. Revenues of $1.835 to $1.865 billion Acceptance NOW Revenues of $730 to $750 million Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $160 to $180 million Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.65 to $0.90 cents Free Cash Flow of $210 to $230 million (compared to at least $130 million announced in February and at least $170 million announced in April) [EDIT: Current MV = $540m) Net Debt of $405 to $425 million at year end(1) Consolidated leverage ratio of 2.3 to 2.7 at year end(2).. http://investor.rentacenter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90764&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2353933 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted June 11, 2018 Share Posted June 11, 2018 Well this is pretty "material" ! Raised 2018 FCF guidance: Free Cash Flow of $210 to $230 million (compared to at least $130 million announced in February and at least $170 million announced in April) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 12, 2018 Author Share Posted June 12, 2018 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/933036/000114420418033839/tv496322_ex99-3.htm This letter confirms our best and final offer to acquire RCII for $14.00 per share in cash. At this time, RCII is in possession of all requested documentation concerning our proposal, including (1) a draft merger agreement that we are prepared to sign; and (2) an equity commitment letter and ample supporting documentation to evidence our ability to complete an acquisition of RCII. As previously communicated, we believe that our proposed merger agreement resolves all open points in a manner satisfactory to RCII. As we have communicated on numerous occasions, we are committed to completing an acquisition of RCII as quickly as possible. We strongly believe that our proposal represents a value-maximizing outcome for RCII stockholders. It delivers immediate and certain value without any business execution risk. We are confident that RCII stockholders will agree that the right path for RCII at this time is for our offer to be accepted. Our offer will remain open and capable of acceptance until 5:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Friday, June 15, 2018. If our offer is not accepted by that time, we will terminate our consideration of an acquisition of RCII. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Stock is still cheap Should be above $14 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Any informed thoughts on whether a deal with Vintage gets signed? Also, what could be Vintage's rationale for such an aggressive deadline ("Our offer will remain open and capable of acceptance until 5:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Friday, June 15, 2018")? Presumably they want shareholders to pressure RCII's, but why give a deadline only a few days away from the initial filing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Any informed thoughts on whether a deal with Vintage gets signed? Also, what could be Vintage's rationale for such an aggressive deadline ("Our offer will remain open and capable of acceptance until 5:00 p.m., Eastern time, on Friday, June 15, 2018")? Presumably they want shareholders to pressure RCII's, but why give a deadline only a few days away from the initial filing? That would be my guess. Create urgency & get shareholders scared of the alternative of not accepting the $14 per share. I think $14 is too low. Look at AAN & CONN as comps and it is easy to justify a $20 stock price in a successful turn-around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 Bam! Rent-A-Center to be Acquired by Vintage Capital for $15.00 Per Share in Cash https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rent-center-acquired-vintage-capital-120000700.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 18, 2018 Author Share Posted June 18, 2018 Unfortunately I chickened out at some point. Congrats too those who didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 The saga continues! http://investor.rentacenter.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=90764&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2380980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 Accordingly, Rent-A-Center notified Vintage Capital today of Rent-A-Center’s termination of the Merger Agreement and noted Vintage Capital’s obligation under the terms of the Merger Agreement to pay the Company a reverse breakup fee of $126,500,000 within three business days. zzzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Accordingly, Rent-A-Center notified Vintage Capital today of Rent-A-Center’s termination of the Merger Agreement and noted Vintage Capital’s obligation under the terms of the Merger Agreement to pay the Company a reverse breakup fee of $126,500,000 within three business days. zzzing. I doubt Vintage is going to hand over that much $ without a fight. Lawsuits and counter-suits coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 18, 2018 Author Share Posted December 18, 2018 Probably. I'm wondering what is going on here. Why did Vintage Capital not send an extension notice? If I remember correctly they weren't that large .. Seems like a massive break-up fee to me, wondering if they can cough that up even if they wanted to. Interesting to see how this all works out. No opinion on the stock itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 I'm probably an idiot but I don't understand the price action at all .. Squeeze? I'm short a token amount of shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I'm probably an idiot but I don't understand the price action at all .. Squeeze? I'm short a token amount of shares. I only listened to a few minutes of this morning's CC, but management sounded very bullish. Might have piqued the animal spirits a bit. I'm skeptical for the same reasons I was way back in February. It's an interesting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 There is apparently much to be said for dotting every "i" and crossing every "t." I reckon this long and sordid sequence of events has finally reached it terminus. http://investor.rentacenter.com/mobile.view?c=90764&v=203&d=1&id=2395133 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted June 11, 2019 Author Share Posted June 11, 2019 For those interested in another roller coaster, Vintage is now trying to do something similar with TAXA. One would assume they have learned from their (epic) mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 For those interested in another roller coaster, Vintage is now trying to do something similar with TAXA. One would assume they have learned from their (epic) mistake. As of yesterday, Vintage is engaging in shenanigans with Red Robin. It "would be prepared to bid $40.00 per share" if the company is put on the auction block. I'm firmly in the skeptical camp on that claim. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1171759/000114420419030778/tv523530_ex1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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