Maple Fun Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 TWC has two businesses: 1) scenic railway (White Pass), the good business; 2) golf club operations, the bad business. The company is under a strategic review and is planning to sell or spin-off the good business. As for golf courts, they are trying to convert courts into residential programs. They successfully turned a golf club in Aurora, ON into a luxury community. It's under construction and sales office opened in mid-2017. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Yeah have owned it for years. Rai Sahi generally very good value investor and capital allocator. Have heard rumour they have buyer for White Pass but there was some sort of legal issue to get sorted out. Value of real estate at Glen Abbey good be significant compared to current EV if all zoning & approvals go through. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114060-twc-enterprises-2-undervalued-businesses-catalyst-horizon https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/how-morguard-ceo-rai-sahi-became-canadas-2-billion-real-estateking/article36012190/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 Yeah have owned it for years. Rai Sahi generally very good value investor and capital allocator. Have heard rumour they have buyer for White Pass but there was some sort of legal issue to get sorted out. Value of real estate at Glen Abbey good be significant compared to current EV if all zoning & approvals go through. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114060-twc-enterprises-2-undervalued-businesses-catalyst-horizon https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/how-morguard-ceo-rai-sahi-became-canadas-2-billion-real-estateking/article36012190/ What's your estimated valuation for White Pass in a sales scenario? I am looking at 500 Millions CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Will they spin off the railway or sell it to PE or the like meaning that we won't be able to buy shares? Any news or more information on this? I would be more intersted in a spun off railway company than in the golf transformation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 They own 50% of this community in downtown Aurora. :P https://www.geranium.com/aurora-allegro/floorplans/ https://www.geranium.com/file/2017/11/TodaysHomes-edit-sept-21.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Is the railway more of an amusement offering to railway fans than it is a railway for transportation of goods etc? (and it's only 110 miles long. Not a big railway) https://wpyr.com/company-info/ And have anyone noticed that they also operate 3 docks for cruise ships? EDIT: I notice now that they of course own the Skagway docks for cruise ships to come in whereafter tourists pay for the train ride. I notice on youtube and elsewhere that people are amazed by the railway tour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 I also notice the high leverage. Around 1,2x equity and EBIT only covers around 2x. They have ~280 mUSD borrowings at around 6-8 % interest with maturities through the 2020's. That's a little discomforting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 I also notice the high leverage. Around 1,2x equity and EBIT only covers around 2x. They have ~280 mUSD borrowings at around 6-8 % interest with maturities through the 2020's. That's a little discomforting Correct, it's another tailwind since the loan you mentioned is amortized loan and they are paid off gradually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Is the railway more of an amusement offering to railway fans than it is a railway for transportation of goods etc? (and it's only 110 miles long. Not a big railway) https://wpyr.com/company-info/ And have anyone noticed that they also operate 3 docks for cruise ships? EDIT: I notice now that they of course own the Skagway docks for cruise ships to come in whereafter tourists pay for the train ride. I notice on youtube and elsewhere that people are amazed by the railway tour The RR is for amusement and feeds off from cruise ship guests docking at the town. It’s a pretty fun and scenic ride - I took it when our ship stopped there at an Alaskan cruise. My guess is that their revenues depend on the # of cruise ships docking there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 I also notice the high leverage. Around 1,2x equity and EBIT only covers around 2x. They have ~280 mUSD borrowings at around 6-8 % interest with maturities through the 2020's. That's a little discomforting Correct, it's another tailwind since the loan you mentioned is amortized loan and they are paid off gradually. Why do you think this is a tailwind? Due to the tax shield from amortization? In general, such high debt levels frightens me as an investor. I hope the spin off the RR. Would be an interesting case then, but they would probably load the new entity up with debt anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 It's an amortized loan which means they are paying off the principle gradually, then they can refinance at a lower rate. The interest saved will go to shareholders. Why do you think this is a tailwind? Due to the tax shield from amortization? In general, such high debt levels frightens me as an investor. I hope the spin off the RR. Would be an interesting case then, but they would probably load the new entity up with debt anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cameronfen Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I don't know if this is Rai's endgame, but from google searches, it costs about 5 million to buy a golf course. Maybe these courses are in the middle of nowhere I don't know. To be safe let us say it costs 10 million to buy one. Each golf course has 100-200 acres of land. Call it 150. At 150 acres, the cost per acre is about 70k an acre, which is way cheaper land price in the suburbs than buying land outright (see here for Oakville: https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Land-For-Sale/ON/Oakville.html). Additionally, you have a lot of contiguous space which goes for a premium. If you want to develop, of course, you have to deal with problematic zoning and concerned citizens who wouldn't approve of developing golf courses into office and residential space, however even if you can't develop you recoup the costs by running the golf course. If you do redevelop the course you make a boatload of money. If this is his end game it could go pretty well IMO and based on only quick research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 Tough call there. I read an interview of him years ago where he spent the whole time talking about how much he loves golf and golfing. On the other hand, if I wanted a sharp elbows partner to do land development, he would be pretty high on my list. Plus, he has filed for a few already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted February 10, 2018 Author Share Posted February 10, 2018 A quick back of envelop calculation: NOI (R&P) 30.4 White Pass CAP 6.00% EV (R&P) 506.67 NOI(GOLF) 32.3 CAP 10% EV(GOLF) 323.00 NOI(CORP) -3 Corporate overhead CAP 5% EV(CORP) -60 EV 769.67 Net Borrowing 286.4 Equity 483.27 SHROUT 27.3 TP 17.70 White Pass + Golf Aurora 130.452 AuroraPS 4.78 Aurora TP 22.48 White Pass + Golf + Aurora Sensitivity Test based on different CAP rate: White Pass 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% GOLF 8% 29.15 27.13 25.44 24.01 22.79 9% 27.51 25.48 23.80 22.37 21.14 10% 26.19 24.17 22.48 21.05 19.83 11% 25.12 23.09 21.40 19.98 18.75 12% 24.22 22.20 20.51 19.08 17.86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted June 7, 2018 Author Share Posted June 7, 2018 TWC Enterprises Limited Announces Plans to Divest White Pass & Yukon Route to Carnival Corporation & plc https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6119216289344281&qm_symbol=TWC Looks like a fair deal to both sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonomen Posted June 7, 2018 Share Posted June 7, 2018 Terrible!! I wanted shares in the railway biz : ( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted April 23, 2019 Author Share Posted April 23, 2019 The stock rose by around 25% since the OP. Given the uncertainty around Glen Abby and other proposed projects, I figured it is time to move on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sculpin Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 I would think selling TWC right now would be quite premature. My estimates of potential SOTP value over the longer term. DYODD... Liquid assets Cash $5.60/share Carnival $1.00/share Golf ops Clublink $35mm EBITDA @ 8 X = $280mm or $10.25/share Land development potential Glen Abbey $500mm or $18.40/share Kanata $160mm or $6/share Highland $70mm $2.50/share Woodlands $50mm $2/share Rattlesnake $150mm $5.50/share Huntsville $16mm $0.50/share Total Land $946mm $34.90/share Total Potential Asset Value $51.75 Less LT debt $132mm or $4.75 Net Potential Equity Value Per TWC Share $47.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted April 23, 2019 Author Share Posted April 23, 2019 :P Wow, really a blue-sky scenario imo... I would think selling TWC right now would be quite premature. My estimates of potential SOTP value over the longer term. DYODD... Liquid assets Cash $5.60/share Carnival $1.00/share Golf ops Clublink $35mm EBITDA @ 8 X = $280mm or $10.25/share Land development potential Glen Abbey $500mm or $18.40/share Kanata $160mm or $6/share Highland $70mm $2.50/share Woodlands $50mm $2/share Rattlesnake $150mm $5.50/share Huntsville $16mm $0.50/share Total Land $946mm $34.90/share Total Potential Asset Value $51.75 Less LT debt $132mm or $4.75 Net Potential Equity Value Per TWC Share $47.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 Aside from assuming their blue sky developments work out (which is less than a 100% chance of success), I think 8x is a bit high for the golf. IIRC club Corp went for about that multiple in a takeover, and it was US based with better scale and a takeover premium. The biggest issue is that if you assume they sell the best golf courses, you should probably also assume that they end up with way less golf ebitda. They won't get the earnings from glen abbey et al after they develop/sell the land. This could still be a great deal, and I'd glen abbey goes through it probably is, but I think that estimate is probably aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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