ValueMaven Posted May 22, 2018 Author Share Posted May 22, 2018 I totally sold out of my position here...risk-reward has changed You basically had free money after earnings, when the stock was trading in the mid/upper $90s.... Sure there is 'some' spread-left... Caught an 18% move in 2 weeks...time to move on Sincerely, VM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterHK Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 I totally sold out of my position here...risk-reward has changed You basically had free money after earnings, when the stock was trading in the mid/upper $90s.... Sure there is 'some' spread-left... Caught an 18% move in 2 weeks...time to move on Sincerely, VM "Some" is still 10%, and there's still a large margin of safety due to the balance sheet flexibility they have if you have more than a 2 week time horizon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 "Some" is still 10%, and there's still a large margin of safety due to the balance sheet flexibility they have if you have more than a 2 week time horizon... Who knows how long that bird will stay in the bush, or if indeed the bird is in the bush at all. Also you have to consider the opportunity cost, maybe the deal falls through and it takes another year to reach these levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpagano Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Approval coming "in the next few days" according to WSJ sources this morning it looks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-set-to-approve-qualcomm-purchase-of-nxp-semiconductors-1527333552?mod=e2tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted May 26, 2018 Author Share Posted May 26, 2018 Congrats all... We all benefited along the way... Shows you the value add this board can have!!! Inital when QCOM rebid @ $127.50 we all benefited, and then when NXPI started to trade in the low 100s, and even the mid 90s (where I really backed up the truck)... Reminds me of that Munger quote on how idiot hedge funds are always forced to do something....yet the active individual can wait, and wait, and wait until the timing is just right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Got in under $100 less than a month ago. Made a great return in a short time. Thanks for bringing this to the boards attention. I owe you guys a drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bianji108 Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 according to WSJ, Chinese regulator should give approval next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpagano Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 Word is China is ready to approve and is just waiting on the U.S. to officially resolve the ZTE issue: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-28/china-is-said-to-clear-qualcomm-nxp-once-confident-of-zte-deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted June 8, 2018 Share Posted June 8, 2018 This gets done next week...ZTE out of the way...Congress is just making noise...WSJ reports again China is going to sign off...spread way too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterHK Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Part of the issue here is that arb shops can't handicap the political risk and are also trading on stats (ie using vols as a risk measure), so they're getting absolutely whipsawed around. It sort of compounds because they're also most of the trading volume (I'd wager) so you see moves that then exacerbate themselves as other shops are forced to sell as risk levels get triggered. In the end I think either the deal gets done, or if it doesn't, you should be a buyer at ~$100 or less for a top quality analog name with a constrained balance sheet that becomes unlocked and owner/operator management (CEO sold his stock due to taxes, not because he wants out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bianji108 Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 any thoughts on congress' move to block ZTE settlement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisowis Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Deal approved, sources say http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2150894/chinese-regulators-approve-qualcomm-purchase-nxp-us44-billion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted June 15, 2018 Author Share Posted June 15, 2018 NXPI has been WAY to vol for my liking recently...all of the easy money was made (by us here) in the low 100s and even in the low 90s!! Who knows if it gets approved. I am following this one - but from afar currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 Deal seems very questionable at this point. I think investors need to factor in a deal break at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted July 12, 2018 Author Share Posted July 12, 2018 I am back in... Discount is way too wide right now...even given all of the Tariff issues. IF the deal breaks, buy more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 I am watching to see this thing go under 100 again. I think the deal being approved is not going to happen, even with the ZTE deal. China arnt going to give any thing up with trump increasing his tariffs. There appears to have been some manipulation going on here, maybe we should leak a story that the deal is going through ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted July 12, 2018 Author Share Posted July 12, 2018 If the deal fails - it is very possible NXPI rips higher from here IMHO. For starters QCOM will pay $2bn on the morning of the 26th... Let's not forget the underlying business is doing very well right now... At this point you have 2.5 weeks left before a break happens. Its a very decent risk-reward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 I am back in... Discount is way too wide right now...even given all of the Tariff issues. IF the deal breaks, buy more In the current climate - why would China approve this deal? What is their incentive to do so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterHK Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 I think the focus on whether the deal happens is so ridiculously shortsighted. They're going to have $8bn in cash: 20% of the market cap. They haven't had an earnings call in a year so the street isn't paying attention to how the business is doing. It's doing fine, and it's in a very attractive industry growing at 2x GDP sustainably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorrofan Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 China's approval of the deal could be a face-saving way of restarting negotiations with regards to tariffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 I am back in... Discount is way too wide right now...even given all of the Tariff issues. IF the deal breaks, buy more In the current climate - why would China approve this deal? What is their incentive to do so? I think you need to flip that around. Why wouldn't China approve this? Not approving this, is an irreversible blunder. Probably worse than any tariff because it can't just be "undone". Holding this in limbo forever has the same effect without the lasting consequences. Otherwise, agree that this is just another example of market stupidity. Just like Peter said. There's no reason any investor who's holding a pile of cash shouldn't be in on this. Risk to reward is excellent on both short term and long term basis. Or wait, TRADE WAR! Dump your stocks, tank the market several hundred points, and then watch it trade back to the same level within a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 The street does pay attention to 41% of NXPI‘s revenues being tied to China.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 I'm also huge in this and think the deal goes through. That said, if you own this thinking its a buy if it breaks, you're doing it wrong. You will easily get to buy it at 90 or 95 in a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 At $90-95, I will buy some too. I don‘t think that deal approval is likely - China might run out of tariffs to retaliate, which means they will do so in other ways. Doing nothing is either for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 At $90-95, I will buy some too. I don‘t think that deal approval is likely - China might run out of tariffs to retaliate, which means they will do so in other ways. Doing nothing is either for them. Not true. They gain a lot from approving. 1) They get concessions from NewCo vs. nothing if they don't approve. 2) They get goodwill from EU and rest of world, not to mention U.S. It made complete sense they would wait till the 11th hour to approve. They want to hold as much leverage as possible with ZTE outstanding and the larger trade war. But once it becomes clear this deal will DIE on July 25th, they hold no leverage anymore. And there is no way to put it back together if they don't act. They also approved the 20b Toshiba deal to a US PE firm just a few weeks ago. It shows the are not holding up every deal, merely delaying them for leverage. Final point: QCOM and NXPI will be pissed if this dies and could move biz operations outside of China over the coming months/years to make sure they don't get screwed again. Yet another reason to approve the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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