bianji108 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 is Q3 report releasing tmr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Sometime between now and early AM usually. NXP is one of the stranger companies I've seen when it comes to reporting. Call is 8 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpagano Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Results are out: http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/01/1640738/0/en/NXP-Semiconductors-Reports-Third-Quarter-2018-Results.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Results good, not great, guidance somewhat uninspiring but at these prices it doesn't need to be. Buyback up to max authorized at AGM. New investor presentation does a good job laying out the opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcm983 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 things that dont make sense... …I was talking to Sam Zell, a great real estate investor, and all he does, he reads the newspaper and all he’s looking for are things that don’t make sense. So I said, “Give me an example, Sam.” And he says, “Okay. I’m reading the newspaper and I see that there’s a Starbucks that’s just opened up (this is like 15-20 years ago) in Mongolia.” And he thinks to himself, “Mongolia? I thought they drink tea. What’s with that?” He’s so curious about this because it makes no sense that he takes his private jet, flies to Mongolia, and he discovers that they’ve started mining. This was the beginning of the big China infrastructure build. And the only reason he knew about it was that “it didn’t make any sense.” So I’m telling you that’s the key thing. People stumble on these ideas and they dismiss them. They go, “Eh, that doesn’t make any sense.” But I’m telling you that’s where the gold mine is; things that don’t make sense. That’s all I pay attention to now. What I don't understand is all everyone talks about is how NXPI is cheap to the comps, etc. etc., and already trading at a nadir valuation, but yet the stock has thus far failed to go up. The other reason given is the busted merger arb, but at this point it's been long enough there should have been some price discovery - i.e., if some large value fund or large mutual fund wanted to buy, they would have. it is no longer about overhang, forced sellers, etc. i guess my question is if everyone agrees nxpi is at least relatively if not absolutely undervalued, how come the stock doesn't seem to move. it's not like there is some gotcha bear case that is well known as in some battleground stocks. this is just something that has given me pause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Maybe the valuation just isn't as attractive as a lot of people seem to imply (I'm talking absolute). What's the FCF yield today and what kinda growth rates can one expect? Whenever I looked I just didn't find it attractive but I probably don't fully grasp the business. I'm very simple and like to get an equity FCF yield plus 10 pct. as well as some growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 things that dont make sense... …I was talking to Sam Zell, a great real estate investor, and all he does, he reads the newspaper and all he’s looking for are things that don’t make sense. So I said, “Give me an example, Sam.” And he says, “Okay. I’m reading the newspaper and I see that there’s a Starbucks that’s just opened up (this is like 15-20 years ago) in Mongolia.” And he thinks to himself, “Mongolia? I thought they drink tea. What’s with that?” He’s so curious about this because it makes no sense that he takes his private jet, flies to Mongolia, and he discovers that they’ve started mining. This was the beginning of the big China infrastructure build. And the only reason he knew about it was that “it didn’t make any sense.” So I’m telling you that’s the key thing. People stumble on these ideas and they dismiss them. They go, “Eh, that doesn’t make any sense.” But I’m telling you that’s where the gold mine is; things that don’t make sense. That’s all I pay attention to now. What I don't understand is all everyone talks about is how NXPI is cheap to the comps, etc. etc., and already trading at a nadir valuation, but yet the stock has thus far failed to go up. The other reason given is the busted merger arb, but at this point it's been long enough there should have been some price discovery - i.e., if some large value fund or large mutual fund wanted to buy, they would have. it is no longer about overhang, forced sellers, etc. i guess my question is if everyone agrees nxpi is at least relatively if not absolutely undervalued, how come the stock doesn't seem to move. it's not like there is some gotcha bear case that is well known as in some battleground stocks. this is just something that has given me pause Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing. -VM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Maybe the valuation just isn't as attractive as a lot of people seem to imply (I'm talking absolute). What's the FCF yield today and what kinda growth rates can one expect? Whenever I looked I just didn't find it attractive but I probably don't fully grasp the business. I'm very simple and like to get an equity FCF yield plus 10 pct. as well as some growth. A lt of semiconductor stocks have become very cheap, just look at AMAT, TSEM. While these are not great comps for NXPI, it shows that the sentiment has soured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 The quarter was great - margins are very strong and the depth of the portfolio was really shown!! Management is actively buying back an insane amount of stock... $5bn so far in the QUARTER....leverage is low and free cash flow is high. The board approved another 15mm share repurchase by the end of the year I believe. A lot better then the Street was expecting...If you get earnings growth or cyclical growth period in the next 24 - 36 months EPS could be north of $10. NXPI has never been your typical semi company...so even putting a median multiple gets you well north of $110 - $120 per share. QCOM really should have tried to close this - even the $127.50 price would have been a steal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueMaven Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 The White House also announced that Mr. Xi said he would consider again the previously unapproved merger between Qualcomm Inc. and NXP Semiconductors NV, should the deal be presented. Chinese officials at the press briefing didn’t mention that pledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 QCOM has spent all the money on buybacks. Would 1) need to do a stock deal now and 2) need the companies to trust China and 3) would take 6+ months to close. Odds this happens are about 1%. But the stock will probably go up on Monday a few bucks regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 QCOM has spent all the money on buybacks. Would 1) need to do a stock deal now and 2) need the companies to trust China and 3) would take 6+ months to close. Odds this happens are about 1%. But the stock will probably go up on Monday a few bucks regardless. Agree, that boat has sailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bianji108 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 yes and what would happen in 6 months or a year is difficult to say. Dont think Qcom wants to deal with this stress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Its had a nice run, but that's probably over now. Anyone else getting tired of these tech companies consistently lowering their forward guidance, just so they can "beat" the lower number next quarter? http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/02/07/1711817/0/en/NXP-Semiconductors-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-year-2018-Results.html?culture=fr-ca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bianji108 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 same here. and with China-US tradewar unresolved, maybe some more downside to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Back over $100 now. Not bad from the August deal break. Spectacular IRR if you were buying low 80's and under a couple months ago. Rumor now Samsung wants it. FD: Took 25% off at $101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bianji108 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Could a Samsung deal pass the MOFCOM review? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 If there is a deal that would get through, Netherlands and Korea would probably have the best odds, combination wise, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 Samsung out saying it's all #FakeNews Nice sale at 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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