LFvalueseeker Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Thanks for the update LFvalueseeker. My revenue estimates are a little lower, but in the same ballpark. I also think it's positive that their web listed inventory has increased to 1000+. I'm interested to see if the data point provides guidance on their sales and more specifically their consumer sales (not dealer/auction). Still holding. In all fairness, my revenue numbers might be slightly high because of the ~30 day distribution lag. I'm very focused on the acquisition side and that doesn't translate to same day revs. Excited to see Q2 report and god forbid they put out any news about partnerships or other updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 New write up today. (good read, no relation to the this blogger) https://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2018/07/12/new-position-in-rumbleon-selling-used-motorcycles-online/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 New write up today. (good read, no relation to the this blogger) https://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2018/07/12/new-position-in-rumbleon-selling-used-motorcycles-online/ I still don't understand why Carvana is a relevant comp. Insofar as I can tell, Carvana is all about using the internet and giant car vending machines to disrupt the traditional consumer used car buying process. RumbleOn is trying to use the internet to disrupt the traditional consumer used motorcycle selling process. Carvana needs to convince more consumers to buy the cars it is selling. RumbleOn needs to convince more consumers to sell their motorcycles to it. In theory, Carvana's addressable market is the entire US used car market (which is huge). RumbleOn's addressable market, insofar as I can tell, is limited to "lazy" motorcycle owners who are willing to make a convenience-for-dollars trade-off. Carvana, at least in theory, can sell used cars for less than traditional dealers. RumbleOn, on the other hand, offers consumers less than "fair market value" for their motorcycles. I just don't think the business models are particularly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 RumbleOn reported results today. Or at least I think they did. I've never seen an earnings release without the earnings results before. https://investors.rumbleon.com/about-us/investors/financials/financial-releases/press-release-details/2018/RumbleOn-Inc-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Financial-Results/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 RumbleOn reported results today. Or at least I think they did. I've never seen an earnings release without the earnings results before. https://investors.rumbleon.com/about-us/investors/financials/financial-releases/press-release-details/2018/RumbleOn-Inc-Reports-Second-Quarter-2018-Financial-Results/default.aspx This is really strange. Numbers are referred to in shareholder letter that isn’t uploaded. Annoying to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 I guess it's just an accidental omission, but it certainly is surprising. Maybe someone can ask for the earnings results on the conference call Q&A! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 There you go - https://s22.q4cdn.com/172929361/files/doc_financials/2018/q2/RumbleOn-Q2-2018-Shareholder-Letter.pdf ** Do you guys have the acceptance rate for this quarter? Stupid shareholder letter (at the cost of producing an annual report) has non-searchable text since the majority of it is a graphic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landstander Posted July 26, 2018 Author Share Posted July 26, 2018 Q2 and forecasts look pretty good to me, with most things being in line with what I was expecting. They sold more bikes (250 more) and had a lower average selling price (8% lower) than I was expecting but they maintained their margin. Pretty much on track, but we'll see what they say on the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 Questions for you guys - - What was the acceptance rate on cash offers this quarter? What was it last quarter. Couldn't find them in the releases. Passing mention on the call sounded like he said, "the 90% of people who don't accept our cash offer" - does that sound right? - What is the rate on the Ally Bank floorplan line? ** I see now it is 7.2% - How does the company have such visibility into future growth, claiming $100m in 2018 revenue, a $150m run rate at year end, and a doubling of 2019 over 2018 revenue? What are these numbers based on? - side note: the Sturgis marketing setup sounds perfect. They are going to sell $3 beer across from the Harley display, which they said is the cheapest beer on the block. If that's true and they really did lease a nice spot in a prime area, that will be really effective marketing spend. I'm sure it will cost a lot, but it does sound smart. I'm sure they'll have the tank-top ladies in there as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 I noticed the tank top girls as well in the earnings presentation. I don’t really recall any other details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landstander Posted July 30, 2018 Author Share Posted July 30, 2018 Regarding acceptance rates, I haven't seen it published. I find it difficult to calculate a specific value given the short history and significant changes in offers/turnover. There are probably many ways to do it, but assuming a current quarter's sales come from the inventory generated from 1/3 of a prior quarter's and 2/3 of the current quarter's cash offers gives you an acceptance rate of 9-10%. Using this method, acceptance rates haven't changed much Q1 to Q2 (-0.5%). I'm guessing they are using cash offers as their primary guide for revenue estimates. With cash offers doubling quarter over quarter and turnover dropping, they probably have good visibility to revenue. We'll see if they can deliver on their margin estimates. And agreed on the Sturgis event! I think they are engaging in smart ways with the community. I wonder how the cost/benefit compares to the racing sponsorships Cycle Trader does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NomadicRiley Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 I don't have any positions in this stock, but have followed this thread with interest since it was started in June. One thing I noticed in the shareholder letter is on page 13 they state that advertising was 16% of revenue. Yet on page 4 they are targeting gross margin in the 12-13% range. According to the 10-Q, advertising alone for Q2 was $2,229,837, or a cost of just over $1,100 for each of the 2,013 bikes they sold in Q2. Based on the numbers on page 3 of the shareholder letter (11.2% gross margin, $7,113 avg selling price) each bike only generated ~$800 of gross margin? Is the above accurate or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 LFvalueseeker you might have the oddest posting record in the history of this forum. 40 posts in this thread over 6 weeks, but as soon as there's actual news about the company (secondary offering and Q2 results) you disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 LFvalueseeker you might have the oddest posting record in the history of this forum. 40 posts in this thread over 6 weeks, but as soon as there's actual news about the company (secondary offering and Q2 results) you disappear. Sorry, I don't get the alerts for some reason. I was not happy about the secondary as it hurt momentum at the time, especially ahead of earnings - which were solid in my opinion. I am still long and have added a tiny amount to my position. In hindsight the secondary seems to be well executed amongst retail investors and certainly increased volume. I am looking forward to Q3 numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 LFvalueseeker you might have the oddest posting record in the history of this forum. 40 posts in this thread over 6 weeks, but as soon as there's actual news about the company (secondary offering and Q2 results) you disappear. Sorry, I don't get the alerts for some reason. I was not happy about the secondary as it hurt momentum at the time, especially ahead of earnings - which were solid in my opinion. I am still long and have added a tiny amount to my position. In hindsight the secondary seems to be well executed amongst retail investors and certainly increased volume. I am looking forward to Q3 numbers. Any idea why the stock is up ~15% today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 LFvalueseeker you might have the oddest posting record in the history of this forum. 40 posts in this thread over 6 weeks, but as soon as there's actual news about the company (secondary offering and Q2 results) you disappear. Sorry, I don't get the alerts for some reason. I was not happy about the secondary as it hurt momentum at the time, especially ahead of earnings - which were solid in my opinion. I am still long and have added a tiny amount to my position. In hindsight the secondary seems to be well executed amongst retail investors and certainly increased volume. I am looking forward to Q3 numbers. Any idea why the stock is up ~15% today? No real idea other than a "super reliable" source said, "low floats are moving today". That reliable source is some unknown twitter alias :) $RMBL $MRAM $PMTS $ASUR $OMEX - these are the other stocks they mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 LFvalueseeker you might have the oddest posting record in the history of this forum. 40 posts in this thread over 6 weeks, but as soon as there's actual news about the company (secondary offering and Q2 results) you disappear. Sorry, I don't get the alerts for some reason. I was not happy about the secondary as it hurt momentum at the time, especially ahead of earnings - which were solid in my opinion. I am still long and have added a tiny amount to my position. In hindsight the secondary seems to be well executed amongst retail investors and certainly increased volume. I am looking forward to Q3 numbers. Any idea why the stock is up ~15% today? No real idea other than a "super reliable" source said, "low floats are moving today". That reliable source is some unknown twitter alias :) $RMBL $MRAM $PMTS $ASUR $OMEX - these are the other stocks they mentioned. Also technical traders are chirping about it which is a double edge sword. They help create momentum but when it doesn't do exactly what their charts dictate they bail. I'd prefer these traders to stay away for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Are victory laps OK on this forum? (asking for a friend who is worried about being called promotional and a pumper) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Are victory laps OK on this forum? (asking for a friend who is worried about being called promotional and a pumper) For a double in a month or so... by all means. Better idea than the usual watch paint dry, buy FFH or BRK stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Are victory laps OK on this forum? (asking for a friend who is worried about being called promotional and a pumper) For a double in a month or so... by all means. Better idea than the usual watch paint dry, buy FFH or BRK stuff. Nothing wrong with making a ****ton of money. Gonna spend some of it on a Harley right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFvalueseeker Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Are victory laps OK on this forum? (asking for a friend who is worried about being called promotional and a pumper) For a double in a month or so... by all means. Better idea than the usual watch paint dry, buy FFH or BRK stuff. Nothing wrong with making a ****ton of money. Gonna spend some of it on a Harley right? Searching Craigslist for a used bike now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Well done sir. I have no clue why this went up ~75% in a few weeks on no news (as far as I know) but who cares! Your posts in this topic were appreciated - I thought the idea was interesting, did a little bit of work on it but unfortunately I was too much of a cheapskate to actually buy shares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 So are you out of the stock LF? I've still got 100 shares left. Anybody know why they have an eBay motors logo on the homepage now? Are they selling bikes on eBay motors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landstander Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 They've had the eBay logo since earlier this year (at least 3/2018). They did sell a few bikes on eBay, but I don't believe they use it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Well done sir. I have no clue why this went up ~75% in a few weeks on no news (as far as I know) but who cares! Your posts in this topic were appreciated - I thought the idea was interesting, did a little bit of work on it but unfortunately I was too much of a cheapskate to actually buy shares. yeah, well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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