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SVIN - Scheid Vineyards


fishwithwings

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  • 5 months later...

I think it's possible that we see a special dividend coming soon. Al Scheid (founder and chairman) owes the company $3.6 mil by October 1st, 2019.

 

Al and Scott Scheid informed investors in the shareholder letter from June 19th that they were planning on selling a few properties that were recently annexed and rezoned into Greenfield. After doing some digging, it looks like 47 acres are now zoned as low density residential, 66.99 as heavy industrial, and 22.95 as highway commercial. In the past when they have done this, the value of the properties were sold for a "handsome profit". I'd imagine that the price per acre of this type of zoning is higher than that for a vineyard or pasture. I think these properties may be worth as much as $15 mil.

 

Al owns 17.8% of the company. I think there is an incentive for him to issue a dividend to shareholders with some or all of the proceeds from these properties (after they're sold, of course) so he can use the cash to pay off some of his outstanding debt.

 

Or he can just roll it over. Who knows.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Nice writeup, while the company is coming out of the dark, financial statements are often hard to find.  Here is a link to the latest posted on OTC markets

 

https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/210422/content

 

One really small point - the note you mentioned to Al Scheid is covered on page 11 - it pertains to a life insurance policy on him to the benefit of the company.  I don't think any decision to have a special dividend etc. will not be driven by the note

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Nice writeup, while the company is coming out of the dark, financial statements are often hard to find.  Here is a link to the latest posted on OTC markets

 

https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/210422/content

 

One really small point - the note you mentioned to Al Scheid is covered on page 11 - it pertains to a life insurance policy on him to the benefit of the company.  I don't think any decision to have a special dividend etc. will not be driven by the note

 

Nice catch. I took it as a loan against the value of the insurance that Al had purchased.

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Another small point, my understanding is that it takes significant capital to develop an acre of vineyard from irrigation, to scaffolding to grow the grapes on (sure there is a more technical term), to the actual vines.  The company leases 1800+ acres on a long term basis - there is value in those improvements.  At $15,000 per acre for 1800 acres on less than 900,000 shares outstanding - it starts to add up can be $30+ per share.  Maran capital touches on it in their presentation (page 39)

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54cd02c2e4b0c5c90af010e7/t/5a6697d2c8302557d79d0089/1516672988787/Maran+Cap+SVIN+Pres+Jan+2018.pdf

 

 

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 months later...

Oddball Stocks makes a good case that Scheid is just a bad business:

 

http://www.oddballstocks.com/2019/07/do-disappointing-scheid-vineyards.html

 

A $9/ share GAAP loss for a $65 stock is something to sneeze at.

 

Indeed. Awful year.

 

Case sales were extremely disappointing, as these sales are the basis for the long-term thesis. Looking forward to seeing FY 2020 case sales with the increased sales effort and announced partnerships. 

 

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Isn't the long-term thesis that the owners sell this to another rich man who wants a hobby at a very juicy price / acre? Consider me skeptical about the economics of the vineyard itself.

Yes, owning a vineyard is similar to owning a sportsteam, horses etc. in this sense - they are status symbol he super Rich and give them something to do. Scheid vineyards may not be good enough in terms of quality to be bought as a celebrity toy though.

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If someone is (1) interested in this space and (2) only managing their personal account, I think they would be better off trying to buy a few shares of the (brutally illiquid) CAOX, which is more of a landlord than it is a vineyard operator (over 50% of its owned acreage is leased to 3rd parties).

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If someone is (1) interested in this space and (2) only managing their personal account, I think they would be better off trying to buy a few shares of the (brutally illiquid) CAOX, which is more of a landlord than it is a vineyard operator (over 50% of its owned acreage is leased to 3rd parties).

 

I have nothing to add.

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  • 3 months later...

Greenhaven Road is still in this, with the thesis being that it's trading @ ~30% of NAV.

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/5daa7eaeab96a61181bef76f/1571454639744/Greenhaven+Road+Letter+%282019+Q3%29.pdf

 

While it is undoubtedly too small/illiquid for Greenhaven, I continue to believe that CAOX is a better deeply discounted CA vineyards play than SVIN. CAOX leases a big chunk of its land to SVIN -- I know which side of that transaction I'd rather be on.

 

 

 

 

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Greenhaven Road is still in this, with the thesis being that it's trading @ ~30% of NAV.

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/5daa7eaeab96a61181bef76f/1571454639744/Greenhaven+Road+Letter+%282019+Q3%29.pdf

 

While it is undoubtedly too small/illiquid for Greenhaven, I continue to believe that CAOX is a better deeply discounted CA vineyards play than SVIN. CAOX leases a big chunk of its land to SVIN -- I know which side of that transaction I'd rather be on.

 

Well just a simple look into the latest bag holder report should remove all doubt where not to put any money:

https://backend.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/231867/content

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  • 9 months later...

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