Liberty Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 https://www.realvision.com/stanley-druckenmiller-interview It used to be behind a pay Wall, but they released it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thowed Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Awesome - many thanks for sharing this - I find he often has something to interesting to say, but I didn't feel strongly enough to pay for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Thanks, I wanted to watch this when it was first released but didn't want to hand over my CC# to that site :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Many thanks Liberty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 This was excellent. It's always interesting hearing from guys like Druckenmiller. The way he's been successful is so different from a traditional value investing approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocSnowball Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Thanks for sharing! This has made me think very carefully about studying the balance sheet for debt, liquidity and adequate access to capital (matching the life stage of the company) for any investments I make in this rising rate environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 15, 2018 Author Share Posted November 15, 2018 Like Malone, it's clear how important Druckenmiller's mariage is to him. Good lesson to remember there, for the young guys & gals watching this and just starting out in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocSnowball Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Like Malone, it's clear how important Druckenmiller's mariage is to him. Good lesson to remember there, for the young guys & gals watching this and just starting out in life. The best financial planning advice I received was in six words..."One small house One hot spouse". Throw in investing in your children as the best form of long term compounding and one is all set! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Liberty, thanks. This was by far the best interview of him I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickenumbers Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 It was a good interview. I like how he identified that it is a shame to have all these talented young minds bypassing medicine, in favor of financial markets and computer science. He is a smart dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nell-e Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 At the 17 minute 30 sec mark, does anyone know what Druckenmiller is talking about when he says "When you take away price action vs news from someone who's used price action vs news [for 35 years as their major tool, it's tough]' ? Can anyone further clarify the 'price action vs news tool' ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 At the 17 minute 30 sec mark, does anyone know what Druckenmiller is talking about when he says "When you take away price action vs news from someone who's used price action vs news [for 35 years as their major tool, it's tough]' ? Can anyone further clarify the 'price action vs news tool' ? I think he is talking about algos/quant who uses news and prices as signals to trade quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Liberty, i owe you a beer somewhere some day :-) Thank you for posting the link. A number of things have been rattling around in my head this year. Most importantly, i have been trying to reconcile the end of QE (and reversal in US) and much higher interest rates (from the Fed) with what happens to the stock market. Druckenmiller says the Fed will continue raising rates until there is a major event (a big stock market correction or worse). The Fed really has no choice. I have been trying to raise cash; it has been a slow process because the market has been weak (especially financials). Perhaps i need to accelerate the process a little. Capital preservation is the key to successful investing. The markets are flashing yellow right now (looking at things with a 10 time frame). Will the light turn red next month when the Fed raises rates or not until 2019 or even 2020? Does it matter? Does one really need to be so precise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 16, 2018 Author Share Posted November 16, 2018 Liberty, i owe you a beer somewhere some day :-) Thank you for posting the link. Come to the CSU AGM in Toronto next spring ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted November 18, 2018 Share Posted November 18, 2018 Really good interview. One of the bests, and an absolute legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Great interview. Definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 At the 17 minute 30 sec mark, does anyone know what Druckenmiller is talking about when he says "When you take away price action vs news from someone who's used price action vs news [for 35 years as their major tool, it's tough]' ? Can anyone further clarify the 'price action vs news tool' ? He means if good news and price goes up, it is bullish. If good news and price goes down, it is bearish. If bad news and prices goes down, it is bearish. If bad news and prices goes up, it is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stahleyp Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Good interview but I found it odd how he compared Buffett and Berkshire "losing 40% from 1998-2008 and you can't run a hedge fund like that". I believe it was around 40 min mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-18/druckenmiller-on-economy-stocks-bonds-trump-fed-full-interview-video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpha Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-18/druckenmiller-on-economy-stocks-bonds-trump-fed-full-interview-video Seems like Buffet was betting on higher rates with his recent purchases while Druckenmiller says he's short financials.... Druckenmillers total 180 on his view on rate hikes is a bit strange, he literally went from one extreme to the other, can't help but wonder if he is just trying to move the market for his own benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Feels good to see that Stanley agrees with me. Hiking now is nuts with all the negative signals out there. He is totally right on risk/reward and cost of being wrong. Tightening of monetary conditions via unwinding of QE does matter. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickenumbers Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I am about 50% of the way thru the interview and it is a very good one! He is a smart, logical, experienced and interesting guy. I smiled a bit when he threw some shade [criticized] on Ray Dalio's Beautiful Deleveraging concept. Druckenmiller was like "I don't know what the hell Dalio was talking about." <-- Not exactly, but pretty much. I wonder what 2 Economists' fighting looks like?? Thoughts?? I don't know enough about Druckenmiller's present holdings to know if he is hoping to profit from his opinion, and is out beating the bushes in favor of his positions. I don't know him like that. But, I do think he is very interesting to listen to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 druck seems to receive a whole lot more signals than I do. [sigh] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwtorock Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 He surely did not like Ray Dalio. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Lol...supposedly according to this video, Stan has never had a down year and has compounded at over 30% for 120 quarters (30 years)...yet for some reason after such a record he's not richer than Buffett. "Best performance in history". Is this a joke? I distinctly remember this guy jumping in with both feet at the peak of the 2000 tech bubble... I guess they didn't look too closely at Stan's real track record: https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/08/18/reviewing-the-druckenmiller-decades/ 2000: At the peak of the technology boom in 1999 and 2000, Mr. Druckenmiller makes a big bet on Internet stocks. He was a huge buyer of VeriSign, which fell by about 50 percent in a month. The bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000 crushes Quantum’s portfolio, prompting Mr. Druckenmiller to quit his post managing the Quantum Fund after a dozen years. At the time, he said: “We thought it was the eighth inning, and it was the ninth. I overplayed my hand.” Oh, I guess he quit working for Soros, so we can just ignore his investment results while at Quantum and just look at his performance via the funds where he performed well (survivorship bias). It'd be like saying "well, I lost everything in my core portfolio last year, but my IRA was up 10%, so I beat the market!". Here's a WSJ article on him from 2000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB95894419575853588 Stan admitted to me that he didn't quite understand the entire story and was uncomfortable with valuations," says Richard Eakle, an outside money manager who took part in Soros internal conferences this year. "But everyone was intimidated by Stan. It was a group of yes-men at the meetings." More: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/05/16/druckenmillers-big-mistake/ In early 1999, Druckenmiller shorted $200 million worth of tech stocks in George Soros’s Quantum Fund. He went short an inning too early, and was forced to cover a few months later after a $600 million loss. Through May, the fund was down 18%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite was up 15% and the S&P 500 was up 10%. I prefer Buffett/Munger view on pontificating on the markets vs. Druckenmiller's: don't waste your time trying to play the market over short time periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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