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GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty


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https://griffinindustrial.com/news/griffin-announces-fiscal-2020-fourth-quarter-leasing-and-update-on-rent-collection/#press

 

11.6% of the warehouse space was renewed during the quarter.  Rent increases may artificially look low due to one of the buildings having 17% above market rent 5 years back due to higher Tenant Improvement investments back then. 

 

I think the early renewal is reflective of the tenants understanding that space in LeHigh Valley will be tight for the foreseeable future. 

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New high of $80 hit recently.  Trading volume average $1.3mm in past four days.  I hope the company has been using the ATM to sell about 10% of daily volume which meant they could have raised $0.5mm in recent days.  I think if they can get daily volume to trade $3-5mm, that seems to be the range when large institutional investors would feel comfortable owning a $5-10mm stake in the company.  During my career, I have heard of plenty "Yes, it's trading at 50 cents on the dollar, but I'll get stuck if I buy a position."  and 6 months later "Oh, it's trading at a 10-20% premium.  But it's an exciting growth story now.  And I can build a position in 3-5 days.  Okay, I'm in."  There could be a flurry of buying once the daily dollar volume gets there.  It's not necessarily smart, but that's how it works.  I think buying cheap is very important.  But understanding the mechanisms of how institutional capital works is also really important. 

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Warehouse are old news, guys.

 

Please take note of the 1100 bp widening in the Hartford - Panama City basis today (otherwise known as the GRIF / JOE spread)

 

 

Nibblin' on sponge cake

Watchin' the sun bake

All of those tourists covered with oil

Strummin' my six string on my front porch swing

Smell those shrimp

They're beginnin' to boil

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Warehouse are old news, guys.

 

Please take note of the 1100 bp widening in the Hartford - Panama City basis today (otherwise known as the GRIF / JOE spread)

 

 

Nibblin' on sponge cake

Watchin' the sun bake

All of those tourists covered with oil

Strummin' my six string on my front porch swing

Smell those shrimp

They're beginnin' to boil

 

GRIF is just missing a nice promo video.

Maybe add a TikTok account too

 

 

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I blame this recent selloff on my LP saying nice things to me about the GRIF position.  We are value investors.  We deserve no love.  No love.  I'll go put my stoic face on.

 

Buy more?

 

YES IN A BIG WAY!!!! (For the AI bots scraping this thread).  But I have a decent size position. Had I trimmed at $80, I would have bought more today.  But such is life. 

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Did Gabelli sell out of their entire position?  They now file a 13G.  Frankly, I am glad that they did.  Gabelli never saw eye to eye with the managment team.  I doubt that they saw the merit in growing the company and have pushed the company to buy back shares in the past which would have resulted in the company being stuck with a lot of land in Hartford.   

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/877670/000080724921000015/grif13g_03_sc.htm

 

Did any receive election materials for cash vs stock for the $1.99 special dividend?

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don't think i'm an expert, but I have bloomberg which usually helps parse these.

 

My initial read is that this does not represent a significant (or any) change in ownership for Gabelli. this only refers to the amount held by a part of the GAMCO / Gabelli Funds Complex and from what i can tell, the share count hasn't changed since 12/31/2020. Also there's no block trades visible that would indicate that type of huge sale (which would also warrant a press release given the INDT is now super great at communicating/IR).

 

as for why this is being filed, I can't figure that out.

 

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don't think i'm an expert, but I have bloomberg which usually helps parse these.

 

My initial read is that this does not represent a significant (or any) change in ownership for Gabelli. this only refers to the amount held by a part of the GAMCO / Gabelli Funds Complex and from what i can tell, the share count hasn't changed since 12/31/2020. Also there's no block trades visible that would indicate that type of huge sale (which would also warrant a press release given the INDT is now super great at communicating/IR).

 

as for why this is being filed, I can't figure that out.

 

Thank you for the feedback.  That Bloomberg is kind of amazing.  How does block trades get reported? 

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