GregS Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'll add one observation from the ER: the relationships with their channel partners are early and they described Mitek as "co-selling." This obviously requires resources and increases selling costs for now, but as this matures they will get much more leverage from these relationships. Good for bottom line growth as they achieve scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'll add one observation from the ER: the relationships with their channel partners are early and they described Mitek as "co-selling." This obviously requires resources and increases selling costs for now, but as this matures they will get much more leverage from these relationships. Good for bottom line growth as they achieve scale. Yeah I really like this aspect. It can be rough at first but when you get large partners (especially in finance) this could rapidly expand their customer base. Lots of financial institutions like to use products from the same provider for simplicity reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 I bought back some shares after earnings (still only a smallish position). Agreed that the numbers basically looked fine at first glance. The downtick seemed excessive to me anyway as the company has a firm bid on the table and is in the middle of a sale process. Usually not my habit to post rumours but from yesterday: Mitek (MITK -0.9%) is attracting private equity interest, according to TheDeal.com sources. Mitek started its auction in December. The company will set a deadline for the first bids at the end of this month and decide by the end of March whether to accept. Benchmark's Mark Schappel thinks Jack Henry (JKHY -2.4%), Fidelity National Information (FIS -0.6%), and Paylocity (PCTY +4.6%) could be among the interested parties. Source: Bloomberg First Word. I'm not really interested in buying more at current prices: low conviction idea and hard to handicap the chances of a higher bid getting on the table. So I'm not too trigger-happy around $11.50. Still might be an interesting idea around current prices though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 Shares have been drifting down slowly on a few weeks of no news. Today might be a decent entry point again. I haven't sold any shares since the 8th but this is a low conviction idea and I don't feel comfortable adding to my position yet. Usually I add too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Shareholders did not approve amending MITK's stock incentive plan that would have allowed more shares to be issued. I take this as another sign that shareholders are out of patience with this board. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000080786319000018/mitk-20190307x8k.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Shareholders did not approve amending MITK's stock incentive plan that would have allowed more shares to be issued. I take this as another sign that shareholders are out of patience with this board. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000080786319000018/mitk-20190307x8k.htm Can you expand upon this a bit? In regards to the patience comment. I think shareholders are content with either a sale or continued growth. I would be unhappy to see the company prematurely sold without realizing the full value Mitek's product is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Shareholders did not approve amending MITK's stock incentive plan that would have allowed more shares to be issued. I take this as another sign that shareholders are out of patience with this board. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000080786319000018/mitk-20190307x8k.htm Can you expand upon this a bit? In regards to the patience comment. I think shareholders are content with either a sale or continued growth. I would be unhappy to see the company prematurely sold without realizing the full value Mitek's product is worth. I don't have much to add except that if you look at the events of the past year it's fairly clear that MITK shareholders have grown increasingly restive. If shareholders were happy with the status quo, they wouldn't be voting down the board's proposals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregS Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 The Board's communication regarding the CEO's and CFO's departure was atrocious. No surprise they aren't getting deference from shareholders even if things look better now than 6 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 12, 2019 Author Share Posted March 12, 2019 Stock ran up to ~$11.60 today - maybe because of optimism due to the results of the shareholder vote? I don't know, but I sold the majority of my position. Probably too early, but $11.50 is the only firm bid that I am aware of. Let's see if the market offers another buying opportunity soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 Stock ran up to ~$11.60 today - maybe because of optimism due to the results of the shareholder vote? I don't know, but I sold the majority of my position. Probably too early, but $11.50 is the only firm bid that I am aware of. Let's see if the market offers another buying opportunity soon. Didn't management way there were multiple parties interested? Why would they turn down an 11.50 bid if there weren't better offers on the table? Even if they dont selel I think there is still plenty of room for Mitek to grow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 12, 2019 Author Share Posted March 12, 2019 I'm not in this name for the organic growth - no views on that. I'm all for the quick gain! As I said before, consider me skeptical about management. The board gets paid way too much and hardly owns shares. $11.50 is the only firm bid we've seen, despite all the big talk about "interested parties". Yes, there is a possibility that a higher bid will emerge but there's also the chance that other parties aren't as interested as management portrays them to be, not to mention that there's a chance that the board decides to do something stupid. I'll gladly lock in my gains when this is trading near the Elliott bid and leave some money on the table for those with a more optimistic outlook (or more knowledge of the company!). It is just my simplistic view that given the facts I know MITK looks like a way better proposition at $10.70 than $11.40. The market has given me the opportunity to bet on this view a few times. Keeps me off the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 I'm not in this name for the organic growth - no views on that. I'm all for the quick gain! As I said before, consider me skeptical about management. The board gets paid way too much and hardly owns shares. $11.50 is the only firm bid we've seen, despite all the big talk about "interested parties". Yes, there is a possibility that a higher bid will emerge but there's also the chance that other parties aren't as interested as management portrays them to be, not to mention that there's a chance that the board decides to do something stupid. I'll gladly lock in my gains when this is trading near the Elliott bid and leave some money on the table for those with a more optimistic outlook (or more knowledge of the company!). It is just my simplistic view that given the facts I know MITK looks like a way better proposition at $10.70 than $11.40. The market has given me the opportunity to bet on this view a few times. Keeps me off the street. Fair enough, I respect that stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 13, 2019 Share Posted March 13, 2019 Maybe not my best idea ever but I switched to Apr10 calls. If there's a deal at $11.50, I lose roughly what I made going from $10.60 ish to yesterday. If there's no deal, I lose quite a bit more. I think there's a fair chance of an increased offer. MITK is an in-demand asset and they could potentially generate a lot more cash with greater scale. It's a gamble. I think there's a high probability a deal is completed. I have very little experience chasing dimes so I might look like a fool being so confident. I also think there's a meaningful chance there's a higher bid, with the chance of a higher bid > the chance of no deal at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Why April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 https://seekingalpha.com/news/3430254-mitek-attracting-pe-interest-thedeal I assume this is a roughly true timeline. Even among bets, I'm not sure it's a great bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LightWhale Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Thanks for the link. Is there any official confirmation for the timeline within it? I haven't seen any reference to bids since the Dec 11th filing. Interesting that eventually, Elliott did not attempt to nominate individuals to the Board. Sold again yesterday @11.72 thanks to writser's reminder, will repurchase below 10.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Looks like moves are being made, possible news coming out? Can't find anything but volume is way up and it just broke through 52 week high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 26, 2019 Author Share Posted March 26, 2019 Stock ran up to ~$11.60 today - maybe because of optimism due to the results of the shareholder vote? I don't know, but I sold the majority of my position. Probably too early, but $11.50 is the only firm bid that I am aware of. Let's see if the market offers another buying opportunity soon. Definitely too early! I guess some market participants know more than I do about upcoming bids (or they are suddenly way more optimistic than two days ago ..). We'll see how things will turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 I'm hopefully selling the options today. Feels like a sell the news type of moment. This was a pretty lucky outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 28, 2019 Author Share Posted March 28, 2019 S-8 filed yesterday for 1m shares for the CEO. The CEO received 800k performance options in November last year, and "none of the performance options will vest prior to the third anniversary of the date of grant outside a change of control of the Company". Mitek just making sure they have the paperwork in order to grant 800k shares in November 2021? Seems more likely a deal is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 Mitek Systems (NASDAQ:MITK) could see $18.50 to $20 per share in a a potential takeout, according to Benchmark analyst Mark Schappel. (link). And another spike on the opening. The rumors are strong in this one the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 29, 2019 Share Posted March 29, 2019 Mitek Systems (NASDAQ:MITK) could see $18.50 to $20 per share in a a potential takeout, according to Benchmark analyst Mark Schappel. (link). And another spike on the opening. The rumors are strong in this one the past few days. I don't know if that price range is realistic or not. I suppose it could be if there's a bidding war, or if acquirers see Mitek as a "must have" strategic asset. I doubt a private equity firm would want to pay that big a premium. Obviously the stock is trading much lower than $18.50, so shareholders could still do really well even if the lower end of the range isn't reached. It's reasonably clear that Elliott's bid was opportunistic, coming as it did at a time when Mitek's management was in disarray. Since it looks increasingly likely the company will be sold (I agree with you about the options package timing), buying at ~$12 may not be a bad idea. $12 is only a ~4.3% premium to Elliott's $11.50 bid which, at least in theory, provides some implicit downside protection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted March 29, 2019 Author Share Posted March 29, 2019 Agreed. My portfolio is in a dire need of cash at the moment and there are other ideas I like better, but it's certainly an interesting idea. The S-8 filing from yesterday makes it, in my eyes, even more likely a transaction is imminent. Though I assign zero weight to what Mark Schappel is thinking. = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 Big seller 10 minutes after the opening, shares dropped as low as $11.30. I don't see any news, got a few fills. Here we go again .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/807863/000080786319000022/xslF345X03/wf-form4_155622696518504.xml Not sure what to make of this. Options weren't close to expiry, yet he payed 56k to convert them to common share? What's the reasoning behind a move like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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