Mitch07 Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 For those interested presentation by Andy Hanna Managing Director at Pan African Energy at last weeks Tanzania Oil and Gas conference. Starts at approximately 52 minutes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 3rd quarter had good results which were expected. Nothing shocking though nothing to reverse the trend in the share price. Swala also released an update relating to discussions with Orca/RBC which seems nothing has progressed there. The main issue is the price though at $6, $8.25 looks good right now. They continue to mention that they have 50% interest from class B shareholders on the deal. http://swalaoilandgas.com/documents/Update-on-Operations-and-Discussions-with-Orca.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Swala finally released their 2018 YE. http://swalaoilandgas.com/documents/2018-full-year-audited-accounts.pdf Odd they put the blame on PAET for the reason main reasons for the delay. http://swalaoilandgas.com/documents/Release-of-2018-Audited-Accounts.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manuelbean Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The news release (available here: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6596107907223711&qm_symbol=ORC.B) implies there are negotiations for license renewal, as capex would be required to develop Songo-Songo North. From my understanding, such a capex outlay would be out of question if the license is not renewed. After the successful NCIB (which went much better than expected according to management), a massive SIB looks warranted here. Management understands capital allocation very well in my opinion: so wait and see! Hi Sergio, thanks for bringing this one to our attention. I am just starting my research on Orca and I would like to clear one quick and minor doubt. You say that management understands capital allocation, but until a fellow investor opened their eyes to the dangers of putting their money in short term bonds they thought it was the right thing to do. The same investor lectured them about the benefits of buying back their own shares and they agreed it was the best thing to do. I like to see that the management team recognizes that they were wrong while shifting their capital allocation strategy, but they needed an outsider to tell them what to do with the cash. Isn't this a bit of an amateur behaviour? Thank you all for the great insights. Orca was profiled recently on the"SumZero picks for 2020". Let's hope that brings some more visibility to the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Orca Exploration Group Inc. Announces Authorization of Substantial Issuer Bid, Provides Outcome of Strategic Review Process and Announces Focused Strategy to Grow Integrated Gas Business in Africa. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/orca-exploration-group-inc-announces-133010013.html) The Company announced today that the Board of Directors has authorized management to finalize the terms and conditions for a substantial issuer bid of up to CDN$50 million pursuant to which the Company will offer to purchase a portion of its Class B Shares (the “Offer”). The Company anticipates that the Offer will commence during the next two weeks and will be completed before the end of the first quarter of 2020. The Company intends to fund the Offer from current cash resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foreign Tuffett Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 This isn't tax advice, but Canada's punitive treatment of tender proceeds for non-Canadians may apply here. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/taxation-of-tender-offers-in-canada/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 This isn't tax advice, but Canada's punitive treatment of tender proceeds for non-Canadians may apply here. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/taxation-of-tender-offers-in-canada/ Yes, good point. As far as I can see the paid-up capital is about $2.50 / B - share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YVRtrader Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Anyone care to guess what the SIB price range (dutch-auction) will be? If 50% of the shareholders are truly in favor of selling to Swala for $8.25, it would stand to reason that they can successfully complete the large SIB at that price, or lower. On the other hand, rejecting a bid at $8.25, then offering to buyout shareholders for substantially less would be very interesting. $50M is a very large SIB (more than 20%). From a trading perspective, I would expect something like $7.25-$8.25 with a final price at the lower end of the range and 75%-85% pro-ration. If there's a larger shareholder that I'm unaware of, who wants out, that tends to throw a wrench in things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergio8 Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 Please note that this is a holdco headquartered in Tortola, BVI, so the tax may not be applicable here. Please note that I am not a tax advisor and I don't plan to tender my shares anyway. I think they can complete their bid at 7.5 CAD, and I wouldn't set the price higher if I was them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Please note that this is a holdco headquartered in Tortola, BVI, so the tax may not be applicable here. Please note that I am not a tax advisor and I don't plan to tender my shares anyway. I think they can complete their bid at 7.5 CAD, and I wouldn't set the price higher if I was them. I guess we have to wait for the proxy to know the tax implications. Having said that, I tend to agree with you that this is not a Canadian company. i double-checked some of their dividend announcements and they didn't mention "eligible dividends". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Correct. I believe you should be fine. Being a Canadian the Orca dividend is considered a foreign dividend for me as the company is not Canadian. I would also expect the range for the buy back to be between $7.25-$7.50 which would mean about 6.7M-6.8M shares if fully used. The company sure didn't mince words with respect to Swala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 C$6.50 - C$7.60. Looks like there will be no dividend treatment, with the company being incorporated as a BVI entity that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergio8 Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 At these prices, PAET basically comes for free, so I believe this is a terrific use of the cash here. The Shaymar Trust is going to contribute some shares to the tender, but their resulting ownership will be the same as before if the tender is fully subscribed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I bought shares after the January, 24 press release. Maybe a bit speculative but I have been keeping an eye on this company as I thought it was cheap but never pulled the trigger for any significant size. The large return of capital could be a catalyst to increase the share price and I thought the market perhaps underreacted to the news. Now the definitive deal is out: company is buying back C$50m worth of shares. The estate of the company founder is not tendering 3.7m shares. By my calculations, even if everybody else tenders all their shares, proration is about 27%. No withholding taxes. Given where shares have traded the last 6 months, the African offer and the probable undervaluation I think it would be unlikely the company can buy back 7.7m shares at C$6.50. I mean, they are basically trying to buy back 2-3 years of trading volume. Can you do that at the current price? I'm thinking it is likely that a buy below $6.50 has a decent risk/reward, the main question being whether you even want to tender at all. However, on-exchange ~200k shares traded below the minimum tender price since the announcement. That's not a spectacular volume but it is nothing to sneeze at either and I'm wondering whether I am being too optimistic. Any thoughts on the current price action? Will a lot of long-term holders take a profit? Are there tax consequences for Canadian / US investors I am unaware of that would make them tender (or not tender)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 To me, it all depends on a handful of large shareholders. Given the very low pre-tender turnover and the company's growth plan, the tender may be the best opportunity for large shareholders to get the liquidity. Otherwise they have to wait for another few years. I bought shares after the January, 24 press release. Maybe a bit speculative but I have been keeping an eye on this company as I thought it was cheap but never pulled the trigger for any significant size. The large return of capital could be a catalyst to increase the share price and I thought the market perhaps underreacted to the news. Now the definitive deal is out: company is buying back C$50m worth of shares. The estate of the company founder is not tendering 3.7m shares. By my calculations, even if everybody else tenders all their shares, proration is about 27%. No withholding taxes. Given where shares have traded the last 6 months, the African offer and the probable undervaluation I think it would be unlikely the company can buy back 7.7m shares at C$6.50. I mean, they are basically trying to buy back 2-3 years of trading volume. Can you do that at the current price? I'm thinking it is likely that a buy below $6.50 has a decent risk/reward, the main question being whether you even want to tender at all. However, on-exchange ~200k shares traded below the minimum tender price since the announcement. That's not a spectacular volume but it is nothing to sneeze at either and I'm wondering whether I am being too optimistic. Any thoughts on the current price action? Will a lot of long-term holders take a profit? Are there tax consequences for Canadian / US investors I am unaware of that would make them tender (or not tender)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 The estate of Mr. Lyons will be tendering 1.7M shares. Which accounts to about 1/4 of the potential share buyback depending on price etc. Not great to see though I understand the reasoning behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manuelbean Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Hi Mitch, what reason would that be? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 I gather the beneficiaries of the estate may want some cash. Another possibility is that Shaymar may want to invest some cash outside of PAET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Orca class A shares $17 bid? Why would you want to pay almost 3x the price for the B class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 Based on the results of the tender, Swala was right that it had a large number of shareholders wanting the sale to go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minten Posted March 5, 2020 Share Posted March 5, 2020 https://orcaexploration.com/2020/03/05/orca-exploration-group-inc-announces-preliminary-results-of-substantial-issuer-bid/ 41% proration at CAD 6.50. was to be expected based on recent price action. i'm also curious if anybody has got any theories about the A-shares going sky high. Illiquid is an understatement here of course, but still some weird price action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 The tender was largely oversupplied as 11M shares were sent back. Shareholders are either spooked with the markets ( rightfully so) or they aren't in line with where the management is leading the company and want out. The YE results that were released on February 25th were very strong as expected. Still more than plenty of cash, do they look at an additional buyback? RE: A shares. Very odd. It looks as though TD has been on the bid and buy of the A's. (though little volume) TD has also been the only major buyer in the B shares of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergio8 Posted March 12, 2020 Author Share Posted March 12, 2020 We may have further buybacks this summer when NCIB could be renewed... We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch07 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Buybacks sure would be useful in this market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manuelbean Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 What do you guys reckon could be the impact of the virus on ORCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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