Jump to content

ORC.B - Orca Exploration Group


Sergio8

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 107
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Using todays exchange rate, there is about $5.60 Canadian cash per share while trading at $3.90. With over $100MUSD in cash plenty of room to up the dividend or kick start another aggressive buy back though the combination of the small float and additional buy backs we are almost looking at a privatization scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Using todays exchange rate, there is about $5.60 Canadian cash per share while trading at $3.90. With over $100MUSD in cash plenty of room to up the dividend or kick start another aggressive buy back though the combination of the small float and additional buy backs we are almost looking at a privatization scenario.

 

Hi Mitch,

 

What is your math? Thank you very much

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feb 25 release the company had in cash and short term bonds $141.6 million (US) they spent $37.5 million (US) on the buy back.

Leaving them with about $104.1 million (US)

 

$104,100,000/26,615,455 shares left outstanding = $3.91 per share (US)

 

I was using the CAD exchange rate on that day which was .69 I believe.

 

Using todays exchange rate .715 it would be closer to $5.47 CAD per share

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi board,

 

anyone has any thoughts on the 2020 $50 mil USD capex plan?

 

in my initial thesis, Songa field was valued at $280-290 mil (PV10) with assumption of 4-5 mil per year capex. Now suddenly Orca is throwing $50 mil into Songa in one year (they earned around $40 mil in FY 2019 from Songa). So it is going to be free cash flow negative now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see the NCIB modified. A slight bump to the dividend even by only a penny would also be nice.

Looks as though Orca's largest shareholder other than the trust Generation PCMA (previously Trapeze) had looked at looked at tendered all their shared. They had been a long term holder going back to Pan Ocean. Not a big positive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi board,

 

anyone has any thoughts on the 2020 $50 mil USD capex plan?

 

in my initial thesis, Songa field was valued at $280-290 mil (PV10) with assumption of 4-5 mil per year capex. Now suddenly Orca is throwing $50 mil into Songa in one year (they earned around $40 mil in FY 2019 from Songa). So it is going to be free cash flow negative now?

Supposedly they should be reimbursed by the government per the supply contract. FCF might be negative in 2020, sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

I would not say it's bullish. The company stock price seems to trail it's cash position. No value has ever been given to the assets or future cash flow. After the huge SIB the stock retraced lower and we back trading at cash/bond.

 

Looking forward to seeing if the company will accommodate it's shareholders and have a virtual annual meeting.

 

A few key concerns or comments going forward that would be interesting to know:

 

re:Class A shares any chance of having those bought out or redeemed some how. Clearly there is a disconnect as the class A shares control the company. The class A have a minimal count vs the B's and are now controlled by the estate. No institutional buyers will look this company up if they can't have any say.

 

re: SIB Huge demand for an exit by shareholders. Generation who was the only major institutional investor wanted out and put all of their shares on the offering. Negative sentiment.

 

re: License extension If a license extension is not in the plans or not likely can the company not reduce their cost in various workovers which added to $80M from now until 2026 (based on their Jan 24/20 NR). Seems like a huge chunk of cash to put forward, essentially a years revenue.

 

re: Dividend increase.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...

CEO was shown the door: link. Jay Lyons is the new interim CEO. I have not been able to verify this, but I assume he's family of the late David Lyons and probably (one of) the beneficiaries of the Shaymar trust that owns all the voting shares - and who tendered 1.7m class B shares. Earlier this year, the company changed names from "Orca Exploration" to "Orca Energy Group".

 

[..] it is in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders to solely focus on the continued value maximization through the optimization and monetization of the Company’s rights to develop the Songo Songo natural gas field in Tanzania and to suspend ongoing efforts to acquire and develop an integrated gas business in other African countries. Since February 2018, the Company has distributed approximately CDN$90 million in dividends and share buybacks.  Focusing on the prudent management of capital and maximizing shareholder returns and regular distributions to our shareholders will continue to be a core part of our strategy moving forward.

 

Reading the tea leaves it looks like the trust wants to monetize their investment and that perhaps the CEO was booted because he had other plans. Of course, whether this plan succeeds (and whether my assumptions are correct in the first place) remains to be seen. Interesting situation. I still own a couple of shares.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Clearly the company looks to be winding down a 20M  share float considering 6M or so is owned by the WDL trust.

 

Either privatization or an easy take out candidate could be in the cards. (only speculation on my part)

 

Last SIB was oversubscribed due to market collapse back in March. I bet this time would be different!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clearly the company looks to be winding down a 20M  share float considering 6M or so is owned by the WDL trust.

 

Either privatization or an easy take out candidate could be in the cards. (only speculation on my part)

 

Could WDL be selling into the tender or would that be considered illegal?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×
×
  • Create New...