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DLX - Deluxe Corp


valuedontlie

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This has rolled back to Dec 2018 levels and looks interesting again...

 

They make checks and other "declining sales" type products (~56% of sales) and offer marketing/business services (email marketing, incorporation, web design/hosting, payroll, etc.) which are growing and ~43% of sales. The company has redirected cash from the declining businesses into growing businesses over the past decade or so. Over that period, net debt is virtually unchanged while cash flow up $150m or so and share count down 15% or so. Not bad...

 

New CEO just joined and is pulling back on tuck-in M&A in favor of buybacks at the moment. Cash flow guide for 2019 is $260m FCF on 44m current shares = $5.90/sh with stock right around $40. Call it 7x FCF and 5x EBITDA here.

 

The secularly challenged checks business declined a whopping 4.5% in 2018 while the growing segment was up 11% (tuck-in M&A fueled)...

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  • 10 months later...

Here we go again...

 

$23 stock x 42m shares = $970m market cap... ~$800m in net debt = $1.8bn EV

 

This business is pretty dependent on small business activity/formation (an obvious risk right now) but I take some comfort that they held up very well during GFC -- revenue dropped about 20% from peak to trough and op cash flow dropped ~16% from peak to trough (from $240m down to $200m) leverage situation was nearly identical back then so balance sheet hasn't deteriorated.

 

They have some interesting service lines and I believe are trying to look like a combination of GoDaddy and Bill.com, the checks and forms business has been a stable decliner at LSD per year. New CEO in there with a plan for organic growth. Like many other long-running roll-ups they've never really combined business units or attempted to cross-sell products... i.e. if we're hosting your website we can offer you digital payments and an SEO plan...

 

I think they'll continue to generate cash even in this environment... doubt it'll go to buybacks (probably lower debt)... but I'm guessing shares today are a very LSD cash flow multiple with a good balance sheet...

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  • 7 months later...

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