Xerxes Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Thanks, I guess the bit about the arbitrage that brings ETF price in line with the underlying that i was aware. But just wasnt sure how the AUM gets connected into all this. Say there is a huge inflow of money coming buying up the ETF pushing it above the underlying, the arbs move in to close the gap. That I get. But on Cathie side, how is she getting access to that inflow of money that gets talk about in the news with her AUM going north of $50 billion. How is here stock picks relates to what the APs are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Thanks, I guess the bit about the arbitrage that brings ETF price in line with the underlying that i was aware. But just wasnt sure how the AUM gets connected into all this. Say there is a huge inflow of money coming buying up the ETF pushing it above the underlying, the arbs move in to close the gap. That I get. But on Cathie side, how is she getting access to that inflow of money that gets talk about in the news with her AUM going north of $50 billion. How is here stock picks relates to what the APs are doing. The arbs deliver the constituents of her funds in exchange for newly created shares. That is new AUM, it can be converted to $, rebalanced, or just held. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I will absolutely admit to wanting to see Ark completely implode under its own weight and see a massive reflexive drawdown. This would bring me far more joy than seeing a few hedge funds get squeezed. I don’t know what that says about me, but it’s true. As your alter ego, I would say that you are a sexist who worships Billy Ackman but can't stand the success of a woman who managed to catch lightning in a bottle with her stock picks. ;) Ok, you two. It's this kind of thinking that is going to lead to missing out. Cathie herself has said investment firms not set up like Ark are going to be depriving investors of the biggest opportunities of our lifetime. I can hardly imaging what fate must await you two Negative Nelly's. ;) I guess I too am going to be missing out, and I'd like to add that I think many people overlook that the WSB crowd seems to not only like Cathie Woods, but the WSB crowd buys the ARK funds, they buy the funds' constituents, and they speculate and buy the anticipated additions to the funds. How is that for creating additional reflexivity? People who think the WSB and ARK phenomena are separate unrelated events of irrationality may be overlooking connections between the two. Add Bitcoin to it to make it three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jobyts Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The arbs deliver the constituents of her funds in exchange for newly created shares. That is new AUM, it can be converted to $, rebalanced, or just held. Can Cathie legally load up the shares of a stock from the secondary market before they officially add it to the ETF, and unload before officially taking out from the ETF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Cathie Wood Risks Having Too Much Money and Not Enough Stocks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/cathie-wood-risks-having-too-much-money-and-not-enough-stocks?srnd=premium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasilp89 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Cathie Wood Risks Having Too Much Money and Not Enough Stocks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-13/cathie-wood-risks-having-too-much-money-and-not-enough-stocks?srnd=premium This is not going to end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's funny. Everyone piles up with doomsday negativity and dismissive comments on ARK ETFs. But there's a lot of backslapping and cheering "value" investor reports from 2020 with 50-100%+ returns where said investors hold the same or similar names to ARK ETFs. It's a disaster in the making if Cathie Wood holds overpriced nifty-fifty-great-brand-great-growth stocks. But it's a prudent long term value investment if "value" investors hold them. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 While I began covering some of my ARK and covid bubble shorts late this week, something I think worth following is the ARK daily buy/sell reports. Devil is in the details but a step back and its plainly clear what is going on. Some of the ARK funds are more vulnerable than others...so pick wisely, but they are doing something potentially catastrophic. Happy hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 I am just a bystander, but check in Cathiesark.com every once in a while. The fund seems to get more concentrated and the largest position In each fund is just below 10% (position limit?) - typically, it’s TSLA. I found it interesting that they own 7.7% in Teladoc shares. https://cathiesark.com/ark-funds-combined/complete-holdings Some funds have scary buying pattern - ARKW being one example: https://cathiesark.com/arkw/trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 It's funny. Everyone piles up with doomsday negativity and dismissive comments on ARK ETFs. But there's a lot of backslapping and cheering "value" investor reports from 2020 with 50-100%+ returns where said investors hold the same or similar names to ARK ETFs. It's a disaster in the making if Cathie Wood holds overpriced nifty-fifty-great-brand-great-growth stocks. But it's a prudent long term value investment if "value" investors hold them. 8) Look, I hate to be the one to point this out, but if you're Big Mad over Cathie Wood & every little drop in her company's funds, but you're not Big Mad about Bill Gross, Ray Dalio, Warren Buffett, or literally any other big-name active manager ever... maybe examine why? I regularly have this feeling. There's arguments to be made for real criticism, but then it usually goes farther than that.. If you body-swap Cathie with David Tepper but leave everything else the same, she wouldn't get nearly as much crap, is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted March 6, 2021 Author Share Posted March 6, 2021 A better male analog for Cathie Wood would be Masayoshi Son. His investment style is nails on the chalkboard for me, too. I'm not sure what, if anything Warren Buffet or the other male investors listed have in common with Cathie's approach. Some of the Ark funds are potentially putting themselves in a precarious situation, as has been mentioned. A "liquid" ETF with concentrated illiquid holdings. Not sure why anyone critical about Ark is automatically a sexist or a luddite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 A better male analog for Cathie Wood would be Masayoshi Son. His investment style is nails on the chalkboard for me, too. I'm not sure what, if anything Warren Buffet or the other male investors listed have in common with Cathie's approach. Some of the Ark funds are potentially putting themselves in a precarious situation, as has been mentioned. A "liquid" ETF with concentrated illiquid holdings. Not sure why anyone critical about Ark is automatically a sexist or a luddite. Ive mentioned before but the answer is simple....people hate on her because they are jealous. Same type of shit goes on at VIC with Son, so that is indeed a good comp. Dont fall into the trap some of these bums set trying to turn everything into a social justice/"identity" issue. No one I am aware of hates Cathy cuz she s a chick. They hate her cuz she makes what theyre selling look like shit so the only way to rationalize it is to slander/demean it. Again, see Son's detractors...same thing. Personally, I think she's great and its awesome seeing a chick dominate the old boys club. End of the day, every financial professional...at least those not working back office...is selling a product. She is very good at it. Thats said...#timesup Cathy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthew2129 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I don't own a singles cent of any ARK etf and don't plan to, but I do think Friday put in a local bottom and they're likely to rip higher in the coming weeks, probably to new ATHs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainman Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I sold ARK funds some time ago because I thought they rose too fast. I like her picks but prefer holding those stocks directly. I am not sure if it is worth to pay Cathy 0.8% fee to buy and sell stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coc Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Why would anybody “hate” Cathy? Nobody feels that strongly. They plain and simple think she is selling BS and will blow herself and clients up if this stuff returns to earth. They may be wrong, misguided, shortsighted whatever. But that’s all it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice77 Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Success creates its own envy and enemies. This is just like that. Who cares if she doesn’t have the pedigree or the credentials that fill up the roster of firms who barely hog the benchmark at the best of times. She is doing well and so far doing it at big size as well. The social media and blogosphere attacks on her are just jealousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted March 7, 2021 Author Share Posted March 7, 2021 Generally, I think investing is a very low calling in life. Supporting venture capital and startup phase companies is probably the best use of investor time and money to improve the lives of the most people, and of the country. I support Cathy's vision from that standpoint. However, I just think in today's market most of those opportunities are private. They come public much later, and in many cases they're no longer startup phase. I don't think she is intentionally trying to mislead anybody. At least she's been correct so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I don't think it's all misogyny. of course i cannot find it today, but I recall reading a blog post where ARK released their tesla model to the public and it failed all basic sanity checks and was downright promotional and disingenuous. IIRC you could put in 0 volume for cars sold and the stock was still like a 3x according to their model. I think fuddy duddy boring value investors like me want someone like that (or Chamath) or whatever to be punished by the weighing machine, rather than to put up 5x returns and become billionaires. maybe that's jealousy or being overly ideological or whatever, but I for one, hope Ark crashes and burns, and Chamath gets margin called to oblivion. maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. anyways, I'm going to go sit alone, in my value investor cave, clinging to my REITs, closed end funds, insurers, and buggy whip plastic packagers, hoping my underperformance shrinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 Contrarily, is she any more full of shit than the value investor investment manager quoting Buffett and using DCF/excel sheet analysis talking up how their strategy will outperform in the long run....most of which have sucked wind the past decade? Those are often the biggest Cathy haters, at least from what Ive seen. Are her "models" questionable? Probably-definitely lol. But everyone in the biz knows much of this is just sales rhetoric. Not everyone has grapefruits like Kuppy and just says "shits probably going higher just cuz".....I actually just had a talk about a week ago with an investor asking me about SaaS stuff. Told him straight up that it wasnt my circle of competence but if he wanted I could give him a learned, industry inspired 2 minute spiel that sounds really good....but honestly I'd only touch it if it was some sort of non fundamentally driven sort of trade....I dont know much more about that stuff than he does. I dont think Cathy or her team know everything about everything they invest in....but at the same time...her detractors clearly dont either because they've been wrong about them probably longer than she's been right about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted March 7, 2021 Share Posted March 7, 2021 I don't know anything about Cathy or her holdings, but there are two very obvious problems here: 1. Excess concentration in illiquid stocks (AKA The Woodford Problem) 2. Sector concentration guarantees almost poor dollar-weighted returns (AKA The Hot Fund Problem) The innovation is that these flaws are in an ETF wrapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Dhandho Investor Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Another brilliant take by one of Cathy’s “experts in autonomous driving”: I wonder what happens to railways when autonomous electric trucks start competing on price per ton-mile... ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JRM Posted March 8, 2021 Author Share Posted March 8, 2021 Another brilliant take by one of Cathy’s “experts in autonomous driving”: I wonder what happens to railways when autonomous electric trucks start competing on price per ton-mile... ??? Well, that's 5 minutes of my life I can't get back. I don't get the obsession with EV + autonomous. Why can't it be ICE + autonomous or literally anything except EV + autonomous. For one, the battery weighs so much it consumes a lot of the 80,000 lb gross vehicle weight allowed in the US (tesla semi looks to be around 25,000 lbs for the battery). Also, with current battery technology you have to account for more frequent "fill ups" and more time per "fill up". The way this will most likely play out is the long haul transport will be autonomous at first. Once the payload has reached the distribution center a human truck driver will deliver the load to the warehouse or final destination. The truck drivers will essentially be performed the skilled portion of the job (like an equipment operator), and should probably command a good salary. Likewise, the autonomous long haul fleets could operate 24/7 under ideal conditions. I could certainly imagine numerous conditions where a truck would be helpless. Icy road conditions, high winds, tire blowout or any other equipment malfunction. The comments on that Twitter thread are enlightening, as well, to the general sophistication of some ARK investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adesigar Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Another brilliant take by one of Cathy’s “experts in autonomous driving”: I wonder what happens to railways when autonomous electric trucks start competing on price per ton-mile... ??? The article is from 2017 and expects autonomous trucks to be commercially available in 5 years. So by next year? I don't see this happening till we get much closer to Autonomous Driving level 5 and we are currently not even at level 3. Elon Musk keeps making promises on autonomous driving and not delivering on them, its always "3-6 months away". It may take a decade or 2 after that for the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerxes Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 Another brilliant take by one of Cathy’s “experts in autonomous driving”: I wonder what happens to railways when autonomous electric trucks start competing on price per ton-mile... ??? You cannot blame them. Imagine if there was no ARK or Ron Baron pounding the table on their ridiculous price target on Tesla few years ago, i don't think Tesla' market cap would surpass that of Facebook and Berkshire. But it did as it became a self-fulfilling prophecy. So because of that I think a certain level of confidence/hubris has been layered into long-duration ARK and ARK-wannabe investors, where the belief is if you say something long enough, it is going to happen. I dont think Elon in January 2020, heading into the pandemic was expecting to become the world' richest person by year' end. Another way to see it [my way of seeing things], is that the capital market works as a mechanism that channels capital to industries at most needs of capital. With the pandemic started to crush demand for fossil fuel and forced O&G majors to cut CAPEX, that ensured that there will be a significant price increase in the underlying commodity coming out of recession. But unlike the high oil prices of 1980s (balanced by discoveries in the high seas) or 2007 or 2010 (balance by shale), capital markets were no longer interested to pour capital into it, so as a consequence anything EV or green related saw its stock price rose such that capital start flow into their coffers (i.e. Tesla' equity issuance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 No no no, markets are rational and efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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