Construction Materials Company Valuations

[nickenumbers]

Can anyone shed some light on the valuations for the Construction Materials Companies?

 

I have performed DCF analysis on Vulcan Materials [VMC], Martin Marietta [MLM] and Summit Materials [sUM].

 

I can't even come close to the valuations that support the current share price.  After I subtract for debt, often I am at a negative value of equity per share.

 

 

Is there some industry practice that I am not aware of, like valuing stone reserves at $0.25 per ton, in ground or something?

 

Based only on FCF, growth rates, etc, their trading values do not make much sense to me at all.  I am deducting for trended year by year future Capex, as it is a real cash flow cost.  Maybe that is part of the difference.

 

I honestly think that I already know the answer to my question.  These things are way over valued, and people have bid them up to sill multiples based on hopes of infrastructure spending in the future, but I would like to better understand their math.  I am also open to the possibility that my math and assumptions could be wrong.

 

Can anyone shed some light?

 

Thanks.