BYND - Beyond Meat

[cameronfen]

I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

Beef will be the better value until volumes pick up.  I can tell you for a fact that Beyond Meat burgers are selling like hotcakes here in Vancouver.  While I love burgers, I have switched over to the Beyond Meat burgers so that I can satisfy my burger cravings in a healthier way.  I also buy them at the grocery store.  Whether that makes Beyond Meat a good investment is anyone's guess, but they are selling and the demand is not decreasing any time soon.  In fact, I would imagine the growth rate will be very healthy for the next 10-15 years as they develop other products like meatballs, sausages, ground meat, etc.  Cheers!

 

It's not healthier, it's processed crap. If you want healthier, then eat some grass-fed meat and avoid any sugary drinks and french fries. Eat meat for meat and unprocessed vegetables for vegetables.

 

No one can see 10-15 years in this industry.  With this pop and buzz, there will be 100 other options or more in the next 10 years, some will be far better.  What moat do they have exactly to last them 10 years? This schtick is going to crash within a year.

 

That's what they said about Soda Stream...which I thought like you would bust.  I'm pretty sure we all thought the same about Whole Foods.  There are a lot of things that succeed that I really thought would not...I thought rap music was a fad!  Cheers!

 

If I'm wrong I'll cook you a healthy dinner! (and eat it myself, because you're kinda far, but I'll repent my folly while repeating "Sanjeev was right!" between bites).

 

You make a great point about Soda Stream and such.  To add an example to your argument: Skechers. At the time that everyone thought they had a fad (2010?), those ugly, ugly shoes were indeed a fad but qualitatively management had a fantastic track record and it was pretty standard for the industry to miss occasionally, so there was a strong thesis they would get out of it.  Is there anything similar with BYND?

 

The meat replacement trend is obviously very strong, but how can you bet on one company at this point? You can get the trend right but miss the company.

 

Within a year they crash #timestamp

 

The market can remain stupid for longer than you can remain liquid.

[Gregmal]

Finally tried this thing.

 

1. The Impossible Burger is way better.

 

2. My wife tried it as well and we both agreed it passes, especially with a bun and cheese, as a burger.

 

3. The main thing, is that if you know what it is, its hard not to sit there and stare at this thing while eating it, trying to process wtf it actually is. The draw I've noticed with most people, is mainly out of curiosity. Once you have it a couple times it loses its mystique and if it tastes close enough to a burger, while still kind of being subtly different, why not just have the burger, especially if it's cheaper.

 

Fad...

[meiroy]

I picked up an 8 burger package of Pat LaFrieda beef sliders for $4.79 today, along with a 2 pack of the Beyond Meat burgers for $5.99. I'm curious to see what is the better value, although I have my suspicions already.

 

Beef will be the better value until volumes pick up.  I can tell you for a fact that Beyond Meat burgers are selling like hotcakes here in Vancouver.  While I love burgers, I have switched over to the Beyond Meat burgers so that I can satisfy my burger cravings in a healthier way.  I also buy them at the grocery store.  Whether that makes Beyond Meat a good investment is anyone's guess, but they are selling and the demand is not decreasing any time soon.  In fact, I would imagine the growth rate will be very healthy for the next 10-15 years as they develop other products like meatballs, sausages, ground meat, etc.  Cheers!

 

It's not healthier, it's processed crap. If you want healthier, then eat some grass-fed meat and avoid any sugary drinks and french fries. Eat meat for meat and unprocessed vegetables for vegetables.

 

No one can see 10-15 years in this industry.  With this pop and buzz, there will be 100 other options or more in the next 10 years, some will be far better.  What moat do they have exactly to last them 10 years? This schtick is going to crash within a year.

 

That's what they said about Soda Stream...which I thought like you would bust.  I'm pretty sure we all thought the same about Whole Foods.  There are a lot of things that succeed that I really thought would not...I thought rap music was a fad!  Cheers!

 

If I'm wrong I'll cook you a healthy dinner! (and eat it myself, because you're kinda far, but I'll repent my folly while repeating "Sanjeev was right!" between bites).

 

You make a great point about Soda Stream and such.  To add an example to your argument: Skechers. At the time that everyone thought they had a fad (2010?), those ugly, ugly shoes were indeed a fad but qualitatively management had a fantastic track record and it was pretty standard for the industry to miss occasionally, so there was a strong thesis they would get out of it.  Is there anything similar with BYND?

 

The meat replacement trend is obviously very strong, but how can you bet on one company at this point? You can get the trend right but miss the company.

 

Within a year they crash #timestamp

 

+30%

 

[Castanza]

Now trading at 100x sales....truly incredible! Anyone think this will fall off a cliff once lockout expires in October? Or will the hysteria continue?

[tede02]

Now trading at 100x sales....truly incredible! Anyone think this will fall off a cliff once lockout expires in October? Or will the hysteria continue?

 

I read this last week too. Had to take a look at long put options...holy cow are they expensive! Obviouisly a lot of skepticism at these prices.

[Castanza]

Down 47% in 9 days...

 

Just gets better and better

[CorpRaider]

Finally tried this thing.

 

1. The Impossible Burger is way better.

 

 

Agree 100%

[BG2008]

Down 47% in 9 days...

 

Just gets better and better

 

It is still worth more than Howard Hughes, so Beyond Meat wins.  End of discussion. 

[ERICOPOLY]

Meatless substitutes make sense because the alternatives generate more greenhouse gas than the entirety of the transportation sector and require far too much land and water.

[Castanza]

Meatless substitutes make sense because the alternatives generate more greenhouse gas than the entirety of the transportation sector and require far too much land and water.

 

That's not entirely true. Much of the greenhouse gas comes from poor farming practices such as poor diets for the animals, heavy pesticides, hormones etc. Local organic farming can be better for the environment than purely going "veggie." large crop lands can hurt ecosystems both locally and downstream. The majority of crops can be considered invasive species. However I don't think anything is set in stone. At the end of the day humans are omnivores not herbivores. But to each their own. Personally about 80-85% of my meat consumption comes from hunting season. Load up the freezer once a year and help manage the deer and wildlife populations.  :P But I am no stranger to veggie or portabella burgers.

 

https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2010/07/is-vegetarian-diet-green/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/25/veganism-intensively-farmed-meat-dairy-soya-maize

 

___________________________

 

As Greg pointed out earlier in the thread. I think this is more a fad than anything else. And at the end of the day what moat does BYND have? Veggie burgers have been around for awhile and the competition is growing. Once the market is saturated people will begin to look for the cheapest alternative. $BYND is currently more expensive than actual beef.

[ERICOPOLY]

I switched to a whole-foods, plant-based diet.  No processed oils (not even olive oil).  No meat, no dairy.

 

This diet is becoming more popular and Beyond Meat doesn't produce a product that meets criteria.  However, there are so few options on the road when traveling that exceptions need to be made at times.

 

I do not think this is a fad.  Cardiologists who put their patients on this diet are seeing a reversal in coronary artery disease. 

(the 13:15 minute mark has the data for this doctor).  I believe he is the doctor that put Bill Clinton on this diet after his heart surgery.

 

 

 

 

[Cardboard]

I have read a scientific piece indicating a 5% cerebral mass reduction to those who follow such diet.

 

There are some key elements in meat and other food being rejected by following such hysteria.

 

Cardboard

 

 

[Castanza]

I switched to a whole-foods, plant-based diet.  No processed oils (not even olive oil).  No meat, no dairy.

 

This diet is becoming more popular and Beyond Meat doesn't produce a product that meets criteria.  However, there are so few options on the road when traveling that exceptions need to be made at times.

 

I do not think this is a fad.  Cardiologists who put their patients on this diet are seeing a reversal in coronary artery disease. 

(the 13:15 minute mark has the data for this doctor).  I believe he is the doctor that put Bill Clinton on this diet after his heart surgery.

 

Most things related to health and life expectancy are hereditary. Diet certainly plays a role (more quality vs longevity)..but at the end of the day health freaks are laying on their death beds at age 70 like the rest of us. Except they are wondering what the Hell they're dying from :p

[ERICOPOLY]

There is no cause to be hostile to those who live a different lifestyle.  I am curious what is driving the putdowns — do you feel challenged or something?

[Castanza]

There is no cause to be hostile to those who live a different lifestyle.  I am curious what is driving the putdowns — do you feel challenged or something?

 

Honestly not sure what I said that is hostile? But if you took it that was I apologize.

[ERICOPOLY]

What I was referring to is after disclosing that I am eating only whole plant based foods, the next two posts were about ‘freaks’ and ‘hysteria’.

 

The hysteria has driven down my blood pressure to 105/58, knocked 2 inches off my waist, eliminated my snoring and sleep apnea, and I have not needed to reach for a Tums in 3 months which had become a nightly routine.  I started the diet three months ago.

[BG2008]

Diet is such a complex topic and what is considered good and bad have changed so many times in the last 20-30 years, no one knows what to do anymore.  Here's an anecdote on myself.  Former high school football player and wrestlers.  So eating and not eating play a big role as I used to bulk up for football and then try to feverishly lose it during wrestling season.  It's probably the worst combination of two sports that teenagers can play.  I was a good sport and followed the government guidelines for years with a steady does of carbs and tried to avoid oils and fats per the food pyramid.  Two things happened, a guaranteed 6-8 pounds of weight gain each year.  Granted my physical activities have decreased significantly as I tend to read all day.  Second, insulin spikes and food comas are regular.  Frankly, there are only so many productive hours in a day for me given that if I eat starchy carbs, I will be out of commission for 2 hours. 

 

Then I was introduced to intermittent fasting.  I literally would have a hungry breakfast sandwich which consist of three fried eggs, bacon, sausage, and cheese on a starchy submarine (hero as we call it here in NYC) and a coffee with milk and sugar.  The key is to eat within an 8 hour window.  The intermittent fasting of 16 hours of fasting and 8 hours of eating actually did wonders for my insulin.  My wife told me that I no longer had insulin spikes and I was no longer hangry.  I went to visit some friends earlier this year and they eat mostly Paleo.  One day we had chilli for lunch which was beef based and no starches.  So it was a beanless chilli.  I thought I would be starving.  But somehow, the veggies, ground beef, and the rendered fat, kept me full till dinner.  After a few days, I thought to myself I can eat this way.  Then my friend told me that two of his co-workers were eating Keto in his office and people would get the Keto flu.  I looked it up and saw what Keto was and joined a Facebook group. 

 

I started and the carb craving was crazy in the beginning.  My body was just trying to undo the transition to burning ketones.  I was literally bed ridden for the first two weeks as I try to keep my consumption of net carbs under 20 grams a day. But something weird happened.  I was losing 4-8 pounds a week.  I would later learn that carbs tend to hold onto water weight and when you deplete your body of carbs, it flushes out the excess.  It is not permanent fat loss, but it was kinder on my joints and my clothes fit better.  I tried to do Keto and Intermittent fasting and it was just too much.  The key is to just do everything you can to get into Ketosis and even feed yourself "fat bombs' to deal with hunger cravings.  It took me about 4 weeks to get into full ketosis and I have been down about 30 pounds.  This is the weirdest way to lose weight.  I was having a conversation with my analyst.  In short, I am not an undisciplined person.  Yet, I kept putting on 6-8 pounds a year.  As I looked into the voodoo machine that is Youtube and Facebook.  The theory goes something like this.  Our metabolism hasn't really evolved much from our hunter gather days since civilization is only a few thousand years old.  At 20 years per generation, that's only about 250 generations of human beings.  Human beings higher fat reserve is actually a nice survival mechanism versus that of the 3-6% body fat of chimps.  A healthy active male human being has 10-15% body fat.  It makes sense that having higher bodyfat allow human beings to cover more ground and survive for longer period of time without food.  When we are out in the wilderness, we can tap into this amazing "human battery made of fat reserves."  With the advance of agriculture, we started eating a lot more carbs.  In the last 100-200 years, we started eating a lot more process food.  Just read the labels of most packaged food.  It tends to contain words that you can't pronounce.  While it is deemed safe for consumption, who knows what aspartme or nitrites/nitrates are doing to our hormones and bodies. 

 

So I started Keto and even went so far to buy a KetoMojo and test my blood Ketone levels regularly.  When I get over 1.0 readings, I feel mentally sharp.  In the last few months, I have dropped 30 pounds.  This post is me pondering out loud why Keto works for me and why it works for so many people on Facebook groups.  There a ton of housewives who are 5' 4" and over 250 pounds who have literally lost 100 pounds on Keto.  The crazy thing is that Keto works when you're eating Bacon, eggs, cheese, and dark chocolate.  It also works if you're eating avocado, nuts, and spinach.  It's actually a controversial topic as there are the casual Keto people and the Keto police people.  I fall into the category of "keep it simple stupid" and focus on keeping the total net carb counts below 20 grams a day.  The mental benefit of Keto has been a huge boost for me.  There are days where my breakfast is literally 3-4 fried eggs, bacon, avocado, and 85-90% cacao dark chocolate and a cup of cold brew coffee.  Life is delicious and life is good.  Insulin spikes gone.  Hangriness gone.  Lately, I have been trying to eat one meal a day or eat in a 4-5 hour window.  I find that when I extend my fast from waking up till 4-5PM, I am actually mentally the sharpest.  It's weird.  It feels like voodoo magic.  But it works.  I think it works because it is forcing the body to burn fat as a fuel.  When you eat lot of starchy carbs, your body never has a chance to burn fat because it can always burn Glucose.  I am probably 20 pounds from my goal weight.  I want to get to my high school wrestling weight which is almost impossible for an ex wrestler. 

 

The key takeaway from all of this is that I encourage people to be a little open minded.  I was a follower of the government recommended food pyramid.  For western trained doctors, I think they are particularly bad with food and nutrition as most solutions are pills and surgery.  The second take away is that simple guidelines can be very powerful.  The key metric to focus on is to keep net carbs below 20 grams.  Keep protein level low and eat lots of good fat.  As I am mentoring my third intern, I think about how managers and boss can communicate with their subordinates.  With every intern, I struggle with keeping them occupied and busy.  It is a lot of work finding task for them to do.  Then one day, I told her the following: 

 

1. Our goal is to generate good risk-adjusted returns for our investors, that is the most important goal.  Never forget that.  We have to keep finding good ideas. 

2. It is important for all of us to learn and continue to learn.  So if you have down time, read something related to value investing.  Keep learning and keep coming up with questions. 

3. I purposely plan for 45 mins to one hour of lunch each day.  This is so that you can pick my brain.  Take advantage of it. 

4.  I am not good with administrative task.  I dread making phone calls to customer service.  I dread certain e-mails to follow up with people.  To the extent that you can take these task off my hand and I can focus on 1 and 2, it will be very beneficial. 

 

My intern told me that she wish we had this conversation from day one. I told her I agree.  I am trying to improve as a manager/mentor as well.  I am not perfect.  She told me that she may not know specific but she knows how to prioritize and how she can be helpful.  She has been much more helpful lately and seems to take a lot more initiative.  I think this is what good corporate mission statements are about.  They should be simple, easy to understand, follow, and execute. 

 

As far as whether it is good to eat so much fat (good or bad fat), I don't know.  I know that Keto is helping me lose 1-2 pounds a week.  I will try to get through the next 20 pounds.  I will probably transition more towards a Paleo diet where I incorporate low glycemic carbs such as berries and sweet potatoes into my diet.  Dietary guidelines are so confusing and forever changing.  Eggs are good, eggs will kill you, eggs will clog your arteries.  No one knows.  I do know one thing that has never change.  Vegetables.  Throughout the shake up in dietary recommendations, no one has vilified vegetables.  So eat your vegetables and eat them in large quantity.  That's my dietary recommendation. 

[Fat Pitch]

I've been doing a keto and intermittent fasting diet for the last 3 years. The majority of my macros come from fatty fish such as salmon and mackerel (high in omega 3). The change in energy, mental clarity and time savings is amazing. Carbs is hands down poison to your body and I will never go back.

[Gregmal]

Ive screwed around with a bunch of different diets and whatnot. What I found works for me was adjusting the diet based on what my life outlook was. IE in the summer a lot of BBQ and red meat + seafood. So a high fat low carb does the trick. Then maybe adjust into a Mediterranean into November. From there, given the bunch of holidays, Thanksgiving(one big meal), Xmas(one big meal), New Years(probably 5,000 calories worth of alcohol), intermittent fasting...maybe not for everyone, but does the trick for me.

[Liberty]

I switched to a whole-foods, plant-based diet.  No processed oils (not even olive oil).  No meat, no dairy.

 

This diet is becoming more popular and Beyond Meat doesn't produce a product that meets criteria.  However, there are so few options on the road when traveling that exceptions need to be made at times.

 

I do not think this is a fad.  Cardiologists who put their patients on this diet are seeing a reversal in coronary artery disease. 

(the 13:15 minute mark has the data for this doctor).  I believe he is the doctor that put Bill Clinton on this diet after his heart surgery.

 

As Dr. Peter Attia says, the standard American diet is so bad that changing to almost any other diet (vegetarian, carnivore, low carb, whole foods, Mediterranean, pescatarian, keto, etc) will provide benefits, possibly very large.

 

If you want to further optimize on top of that, then you can start to look at which of those provides the most benefits (and some people react better or worse to some of those, so it's not one size fits all), but anyone on the standard american diet (lots of processed foods, simple carbs, tons of sugar, low fiber, low micronutrients) should just get off that.

[stahleyp]

When I was on paleo I never felt better in my life. It's much easier to do when you're a single guy, harder when married, even harder when married and have kids.

 

I could go to the gym at 8pm with no issue. I didn't come up with it but the term SAD for standard american diet is pretty accurate.

[Deepdive]

Can anyone share any biohacking tips?  I have heard that bullet proof coffee and eating a Keto diet is great for staying mentally sharp.  I have heard from people that if their Ketone level hit 2.0, it feels like being on Adderal. 

[Deepdive]

I think that Beyond Meat ultimately doesn't work at these multiples because the barriers to entry is low.  Maybe it turns into a Vonage situation where VOIP grew very fast but the margins got competed away. 

[Paarslaars]

When I was on paleo I never felt better in my life. It's much easier to do when you're a single guy, harder when married, even harder when married and have kids.

 

I could go to the gym at 8pm with no issue. I didn't come up with it but the term SAD for standard american diet is pretty accurate.

 

Same here... when I was in college I did paleo and morning weight lifting. This was a breeze, didn't even need cheat days either, was in the best shape of my life despite some heavy drinking. :)

 

Paleo went out the window as soon as I started living together with my girlfriend and the gym time disappeared when my daughter was born.

 

I'm still about the same weight, just lost about 10-15 pounds of muscle and replaced it with fat.  :-\

 

[meiroy]

 

 

Are people selling BYND so they could invest in Wework?  What if Wework starts selling Beyond Meat? How would you balance your investment between the two?